The 2004 presidential election long has seemed likely to be at least
competitive, with the nation evenly divided between the two major
political parties, along with the high degree of partisan polarization,
the enormous intensity of emotions within both ranks of partisans and
the sluggish, if not downright weak, economy. But until very recently,
the downward trend in President Bush's approval numbers was really more
of a settling. His approval ratings' descent from stratospherically high
levels to lower numbers was what one would expect, given the political
and economic state of the nation.

But since Labor Day, the decline looks more like a real drop than a
settling, and the triple issues of the economy, the deficit and Iraq
have become conjoined. An Ipsos/Cook Political Report poll taken last
Tuesday through Thursday of 787 registered voters showed Bush's approval
rating had dropped four points from three weeks ago, from 55 percent to
51 percent. That was six points lower than the 57 percent approval
rating seen in both the months of July and August. His disapproval
rating jumped up three points in three weeks, to 46 percent, well above
the 39 percent in two August polls and 41 percent in two July surveys.
For the first time in 45 Ipsos/CPR surveys since January 2002, the
president's approval rating dropped to 51 percent. The percentages of
those who strongly approved and those who strongly disapproved were
virtually identical, at 27 percent and 26 percent. The error margin was
3.6 points.