There's not that much that I have to say about the capture of Saddam. Obviously, it's a good thing, as far as it goes, but I'd be very surprised if it provokes any significant change in the situation in Iraq. It doesn't seem as if Saddam was in control of the insurgency in any way, or even involved in it, and it seems doubtful if those who are running it are going to change anything now that he's been removed from the scene.
So Iraq will remain the complete mess that Bush's prosecution of the war created.
Domestically, that means that the popularity bounce Bush will get in the polls because of Saddam's capture is likely to be sharp and short, even shorter-lived then the one he got on the overthrow of Saddam. People will back Bush because, to them, it will appear as if the war is over now that Saddam's been captured, but they'll start to think twice about that when the bombings and the deaths of Americans continue unabated. Add that to a jobless "recovery", and Bush's long-term trend will continue to be down, down, down.
I predict a quick spike, and then a fast decline, so that a month or so from now Bush's numbers are exactly where they were before Saddam was taken.
(The unknown factor is whatever trial of Saddam is held. I think Bush'll be forced to allow an Iraqi-run show trial, which will be relatively quick and will end in an execution. How that will play in Iraq or here in the US, I'm not sure).
Robert David Sullivan divides the country up into 10 regions [Northeast Corridor, Upper Coasts (lower New England, San Francisco and the Pacific Northwest), Great Lakes, El Norte (Southern California, the hispanic southwest & Texas and the Miami area), Big River (the Mississippi midwest), Southern Lowlands, Farm Belt, Appalachia, Southern Comfort and Sagebrush (the mountain West and upper New England)] and analyzes then politically. Using this breakdown, he presents some regionally-based strategies that both Bush and the Democrats may need to follow in order to win in 2004.
It's interesting to compare Sullivan's divisions with that of Joel Garreau in his 1981 book The Nine Nations of North America. Garreau's nine "nations" are Quebec, New England, The Foundry, Dixie, The Islands, Mexamerica, The Breadbasket, The Empty Quarter and Ecotopia. Although his analysis includes Canada, Mexico and the Carribean, and not just the US, the breakdown is quite similar to Sullivan's. His Mexamercia is basically Sullivan's El Norte, except that Garreau sees Miami as the capital of The Islands, and not as an extension of the Western hispanic region. Garreau's Empty Quarter is Sullivan's Sagebrush, except that he keeps Maine and New Hampshire in with New England. The Breadbasket is the Farm Region plus Big River, Garreau's Foundry is Sullivan's Northeast Corridor plus the Great Lakes, his Ecotopia is the Western portion of Sullivan's Upper Coasts, and his Dixie combines Sullivan's Southern Lowland and Southern Comfort.
On the whole, Sullivan's breakdown is more specific than Garreau's, but the correspondances are close enough to believe that both men are on to something, and that the regional political and cultural divisions they've identified (to differing degrees of resolution) are real and significant.
Update: DHinMi has an interesting analysis of some deficiencies in Sullivan's taxonomy on Daily Kos.
absolutist
aggresive
anti-Constitutional
anti-intellectual
arrogant
authoritarian
blame-placers
blameworthy
blinkered
buckpassers
calculating
class warriors
clueless
compassionless
con artists
conniving
conscienceless
conspiratorial
corrupt
craven
criminal
crooked
culpable
damaging
dangerous
deadly
debased
deceitful
delusional
despotic
destructive
devious
disconnected
dishonorable
dishonest
disingenuous
disrespectful
dogmatic
doomed
fanatical
fantasists
felonious
hateful
heinous
hostile to science
hypocritical
ideologues
ignorant
immoral
incompetent
indifferent
inflexible
insensitive
insincere
irrational
isolated
kleptocratic
lacking in empathy
lacking in public spirit
liars
mendacious
misleading
mistrustful
non-rational
not candid
not "reality-based"
not trustworthy
oblivious
oligarchic
opportunistic
out of control
pernicious
perverse
philistine
plutocratic
prevaricating
propagandists
rapacious
relentless
reprehensible
rigid
scandalous
schemers
selfish
secretive
shameless
sleazy
tricky
unAmerican
uncaring
uncivil
uncompromising
unconstitutional
undemocratic
unethical
unpopular
unprincipled
unrealistic
unreliable
unrepresentative
unscientific
unscrupulous
unsympathetic
venal
vile
virtueless
warmongers
wicked
without integrity
wrong-headed
Thanks to: Breeze, Chuck, Ivan Raikov, Kaiju, Kathy, Roger, Shirley, S.M. Dixon
recently seen
i've got a little list...
Elliott Abrams
Steven Abrams (Kansas BofE)
David Addington
Howard Fieldstead Ahmanson
Roger Ailes (FNC)
John Ashcroft
Bob Bennett
William Bennett
Joe Biden
John Bolton
Alan Bonsell (Dover BofE)
Pat Buchanan
Bill Buckingham (Dover BofE)
George W. Bush
Saxby Chambliss
Bruce Chapman (DI)
Dick Cheney
Lynne Cheney
Richard Cohen
The Coors Family
Ann Coulter
Michael Crichton
Lanny Davis
Tom DeLay
William A. Dembski
James Dobson
Leonard Downie (WaPo)
Dinesh D’Souza
Gregg Easterbrook
Jerry Falwell
Douglas Feith
Arthur Finkelstein
Bill Frist
George Gilder
Newt Gingrich
John Gibson (FNC)
Alberto Gonzalez
Rudolph Giuliani
Sean Hannity
Katherine Harris
Fred Hiatt (WaPo)
Christopher Hitchens
David Horowitz
Don Imus
James F. Inhofe
Jesse Jackson
Philip E. Johnson
Daryn Kagan
Joe Klein
Phil Kline
Ron Klink
William Kristol
Ken Lay
Joe Lieberman
Rush Limbaugh
Trent Lott
Frank Luntz
"American Fundamentalists"
by Joel Pelletier
(click on image for more info)
Chris Matthews
Mitch McConnell
Stephen C. Meyer (DI)
Judith Miller (ex-NYT)
Zell Miller
Tom Monaghan
Sun Myung Moon
Roy Moore
Dick Morris
Rupert Murdoch
Ralph Nader
John Negroponte
Grover Norquist
Robert Novak
Ted Olson
Elspeth Reeve (TNR)
Bill O'Reilly
Martin Peretz (TNR)
Richard Perle
Ramesh Ponnuru
Ralph Reed
Pat Robertson
Karl Rove
Tim Russert
Rick Santorum
Richard Mellon Scaife
Antonin Scalia
Joe Scarborough
Susan Schmidt (WaPo)
Bill Schneider
Al Sharpton
Ron Silver
John Solomon (WaPo)
Margaret Spellings
Kenneth Starr
Randall Terry
Clarence Thomas
Richard Thompson (TMLC)
Donald Trump
Richard Viguere
Donald Wildmon
Paul Wolfowitz
Bob Woodward (WaPo)
John Yoo
guest-blogging
All the fine sites I've
guest-blogged for:
Be sure to visit them all!!
recent listening
influences
John Adams
Laurie Anderson
Aphex Twin
Isaac Asimov
Fred Astaire
J.G. Ballard
The Beatles
Busby Berkeley
John Cage
"Catch-22"
Raymond Chandler
Arthur C. Clarke
Elvis Costello
Richard Dawkins
Daniel C. Dennett
Philip K. Dick
Kevin Drum
Brian Eno
Fela
Firesign Theatre
Eliot Gelwan
William Gibson
Philip Glass
David Gordon
Stephen Jay Gould
Dashiell Hammett
"The Harder They Come"
Robert Heinlein
Joseph Heller
Frank Herbert
Douglas Hofstadter
Bill James
Gene Kelly
Stanley Kubrick
Jefferson Airplane
Ursula K. LeGuin
The Marx Brothers
John McPhee
Harry Partch
Michael C. Penta
Monty Python
Orbital
Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger
"The Prisoner"
"The Red Shoes"
Steve Reich
Terry Riley
Oliver Sacks
Erik Satie
"Singin' in the Rain"
Stephen Sondheim
The Specials
Morton Subotnick
Talking Heads/David Byrne
Tangerine Dream
Hunter S. Thompson
J.R.R. Tolkien
"2001: A Space Odyssey"
Kurt Vonnegut
Yes
Bullshit, trolling, unthinking knee-jerk dogmatism and the drivel of idiots will be ruthlessly deleted and the posters banned.
Entertaining, interesting, intelligent, informed and informative comments will always be welcome, even when I disagree with them.
I am the sole judge of which of these qualities pertains.
E-mail
All e-mail received is subject to being published on unfutz without identifying names or addresses.
Corrections
I correct typos and other simple errors of grammar, syntax, style and presentation in my posts after the fact without necessarily posting notification of the change.
Substantive textual changes, especially reversals or major corrections, will be noted in an "Update" or a footnote.
Also, illustrations may be added to entries after their initial publication.
the story so far
unfutz: toiling in almost complete obscurity for almost 1500 days
If you read unfutz at least once a week, without fail, your teeth will be whiter and your love life more satisfying.
If you read it daily, I will come to your house, kiss you on the forehead, bathe your feet, and cook pancakes for you, with yummy syrup and everything.
(You might want to keep a watch on me, though, just to avoid the syrup ending up on your feet and the pancakes on your forehead.)
Finally, on a more mundane level, since I don't believe that anyone actually reads this stuff, I make this offer: I'll give five bucks to the first person who contacts me and asks for it -- and, believe me, right now five bucks might as well be five hundred, so this is no trivial offer.
