Kerry 259 - Bush 217 - ?? 62 (that's FL-27, NV-5, OH-20, WI-10)

If I'm forced to assign the toss-ups, using the latest polls available in each, I come up with:

Kerry 306 - Bush 232

I thought it'd be good to see what the state of play is on other tracking sites before we go into this completely new phase of the campaign, so here's a roundup of what other people are predicting, in alphabetical order. (Note: Many of these sites differentiate between "solid", "slightly" and "leaning" states, but I've combined them all together -- for specifics, and the site's methodology, use the links and take a look. One site I looked at last time -- Tradesports -- wasn't available when I made my run.):

Chris Bowers:
Kerry 291 - Bush 247 (as of 7/6)

Chuck Buckley:
Kerry 302 - Bush 236 (as of 7/6)

Charlie Cook:
Kerry 207 - Bush 211 - ?? 120 (as of 7/6)

Dale's EC Breakdown:
Kerry 259 - Bush 226 - ?? 53 (as of 7/6)

DC Political Report
Kerry 197 - Bush 178 - ?? 163 (as of 7/5)

Election Projection:
Kerry 291 - Bush 247 (as of 7/4)

Electoral-vote.com:
Kerry 280 - Bush 247 - ?? 11 (as of 7/6)

Kevin's Marginalia:
Kerry 274 - Bush 264 (as of 6/25)

LA Times:
Kerry 169 - Bush 154 - ?? 215 (as of 6/28)

Leip Atlas (607 user predictions compiled):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254 (as of c. 7/6)

Pollkatz:
Kerry 287 - Bush 251 (as of 6/30)

Rasmussen
Kerry 227 - Bush 188 - ?? 123 (as of 6/21)

Sabato's Crystal Ball:
Kerry 274 - Bush 264 (undated)

Samboni's State-by-State:
Kerry 244 - Bush 267 - ?? 27 (as of 7/2)

Wayne in Missouri:
Kerry 281 - Bush 257 (as of 7/2)

Dave Wissing:
Kerry 260 - Bush 278 (as of 7/6)

2.004k.com
Kerry 297 - Bush 237 - ?? 4 (undated)

Of the 17 sites I surveyed, 10 show Kerry winning, and 4 show him ahead. Only 1 shows Bush winning, and 2 others show him with a lead.

Note: If anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list.

Update: I should have noted that the one site that has Bush clearly winning (Dave Wissing) uses the methodology of assigning each state to whichever candidate is ahead in the most recent poll. Unfortunately, for Pennsylvania and Ohio, the latest poll Wissing lists is the Fox News poll, which is clearly skewed in Bush's favor. (And since in both those states, a poll other than Fox -- ARG in Ohio and Quinnipiac in PA -- was released on the very same day as the Fox poll, it's an open question why Wissing chose to go with Fox as the "latest", considering the obvious bias of Fox News.) Once new polls are released in those states, usurping Fox, Wissing's totals should move in Kerry's direction.

Update (7/7): Florida was poised to move to Kerry, and now Rasmussen has released its month-of-June results: Kerry 48 - Bush 43 (moe +/-4). Looking at the lastest polling there:

- Rasmussen 6/22 K48-B42 moe5
- FoxNews 6/23 K41-B50 or K38-B48-N3 moe3
- ARG 6/23 K47-B46-N2 or K48-B46 moe4
- Quinnipiac 6/27 K46-B44 or K43-B43-N6 moe2.8
- Rasmussen 6/30 K48-B43 moe4

Only the Fox News poll strikes a discordant note (and we know why that is), so Kerry is clearly ahead, albeit inside the margin of error. This provokes me to move Florida from toss-up, leaning DEM into DEM.

My numbers now:

DEM: IA-7, FL-27, ME-4, MI-17, MN-10, NH-4, NM-5, OR-7, PA-21, WA-11, WI-10, WV-5
(118+168=286)

GOP: AZ-10, AR-6, CO-9, LA-9, MO-11, NC-15, TN-11, VA-13
(84+133=217)

IN PLAY: NV-5, OH-20, WI-10 (35)

Kerry 286 - Bush 217 - ?? 35