Thursday, July 08, 2004
 

Are all tires round?

Hello to those folks stopping by via the link from Streetrod Stuff -- I'm not the guy you're referring to (you knew that, right?), but I'll take the visits however they come! Take a look around and read some of the older stuff (there's not been much posting recently due to my recuperation and other factors). Make yourself at home, always glad to have company.

Ed Fitzgerald | 7/08/2004 05:51:00 PM | | | del.icio.us | GO: TOP OF HOME PAGE


Wednesday, July 07, 2004
 

Sour note

One other quick thought:

As I was taking a shower this morning, my Kerry-Edwards-provoked good mood was momentarily interrupted by the awful thought that if Bush starts to fall too far behind Kerry before the GOP convention (or even after), they may take the radical step of dropping Cheney and replacing him with someone more palatable. I know that when the Internet was buzzing about Giuliani being a possible replacement for Cheney, I poo-pooed the idea, and I still think that Rudy's got too many negatives to appeal to the GOP base (he's pro-choice for one), but my showering discomfort was occasioned by the thought that Bush (or, rather, his handlers) might pick John McCain as a new running mate. I think we'd be in some trouble then.

I still don't think it's likely, especially considering the reports from within the White House that Bush doesn't actually make a decision about anything important until he's talked it over with Cheney, indicating who it is who's actually in charge there, but if they feel it slipping away from them, they could make that kind of radical move.

In the meantime, Kerry-Edwards is an exceptionally strong ticket.

Ed Fitzgerald | 7/07/2004 12:37:00 AM | | | del.icio.us | GO: TOP OF HOME PAGE


Tuesday, July 06, 2004
 

Electoral college: where we're at

[2006 Election Projections Survey]


[New survey posted on 10/30]

[New survey posted on 10/27]

[New survey posted on 10/24]

[New survey posted on 10/21]

[New survey posted on 10/18]

[New survey posted on 10/11]

[New survey posted on 10/04]

[New survey posted on 9/27]

[New survey posted on 9/19]

[New survey posted on 9/13]

[New survey posted on 9/6]

[New survey posted on 8/29]

[New survey posted on 8/22]

[New survey posted on 8/15]

[New survey posted on 8/7]

[New survey posted on 8/1]

[Note: New survey on 7/25]


My current Electoral College prediction hasn't changed any recently (because there hasn't been a lot of new in-state polls, and those that have been done haven't effected my results), but I expect that with Edwards having been named there'll be a bunch of new ones soon looking specifically at Bush-Cheney vs. Kerry-Edwards. (The one change I have made is to add North Carolina to my list of swing states, on the assumption that with Edwards on board, it's now in play -- Chris at MyDD and David at Swing State Report think so too.)

So my prediction stands at

Kerry 259 - Bush 217 - ?? 62 (that's FL-27, NV-5, OH-20, WI-10)

If I'm forced to assign the toss-ups, using the latest polls available in each, I come up with:

Kerry 306 - Bush 232

I thought it'd be good to see what the state of play is on other tracking sites before we go into this completely new phase of the campaign, so here's a roundup of what other people are predicting, in alphabetical order. (Note: Many of these sites differentiate between "solid", "slightly" and "leaning" states, but I've combined them all together -- for specifics, and the site's methodology, use the links and take a look. One site I looked at last time -- Tradesports -- wasn't available when I made my run.):

Chris Bowers:
Kerry 291 - Bush 247 (as of 7/6)

Chuck Buckley:
Kerry 302 - Bush 236 (as of 7/6)

Charlie Cook:
Kerry 207 - Bush 211 - ?? 120 (as of 7/6)

Dale's EC Breakdown:
Kerry 259 - Bush 226 - ?? 53 (as of 7/6)

DC Political Report
Kerry 197 - Bush 178 - ?? 163 (as of 7/5)

Election Projection:
Kerry 291 - Bush 247 (as of 7/4)

Electoral-vote.com:
Kerry 280 - Bush 247 - ?? 11 (as of 7/6)

Kevin's Marginalia:
Kerry 274 - Bush 264 (as of 6/25)

LA Times:
Kerry 169 - Bush 154 - ?? 215 (as of 6/28)

Leip Atlas (607 user predictions compiled):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254 (as of c. 7/6)

Pollkatz:
Kerry 287 - Bush 251 (as of 6/30)

Rasmussen
Kerry 227 - Bush 188 - ?? 123 (as of 6/21)

Sabato's Crystal Ball:
Kerry 274 - Bush 264 (undated)

Samboni's State-by-State:
Kerry 244 - Bush 267 - ?? 27 (as of 7/2)

Wayne in Missouri:
Kerry 281 - Bush 257 (as of 7/2)

Dave Wissing:
Kerry 260 - Bush 278 (as of 7/6)

2.004k.com
Kerry 297 - Bush 237 - ?? 4 (undated)

Of the 17 sites I surveyed, 10 show Kerry winning, and 4 show him ahead. Only 1 shows Bush winning, and 2 others show him with a lead.

Note: If anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list.

Update: I should have noted that the one site that has Bush clearly winning (Dave Wissing) uses the methodology of assigning each state to whichever candidate is ahead in the most recent poll. Unfortunately, for Pennsylvania and Ohio, the latest poll Wissing lists is the Fox News poll, which is clearly skewed in Bush's favor. (And since in both those states, a poll other than Fox -- ARG in Ohio and Quinnipiac in PA -- was released on the very same day as the Fox poll, it's an open question why Wissing chose to go with Fox as the "latest", considering the obvious bias of Fox News.) Once new polls are released in those states, usurping Fox, Wissing's totals should move in Kerry's direction.

Update (7/7): Florida was poised to move to Kerry, and now Rasmussen has released its month-of-June results: Kerry 48 - Bush 43 (moe +/-4). Looking at the lastest polling there:

- Rasmussen 6/22 K48-B42 moe5
- FoxNews 6/23 K41-B50 or K38-B48-N3 moe3
- ARG 6/23 K47-B46-N2 or K48-B46 moe4
- Quinnipiac 6/27 K46-B44 or K43-B43-N6 moe2.8
- Rasmussen 6/30 K48-B43 moe4

Only the Fox News poll strikes a discordant note (and we know why that is), so Kerry is clearly ahead, albeit inside the margin of error. This provokes me to move Florida from toss-up, leaning DEM into DEM.

My numbers now:

DEM: IA-7, FL-27, ME-4, MI-17, MN-10, NH-4, NM-5, OR-7, PA-21, WA-11, WI-10, WV-5
(118+168=286)

GOP: AZ-10, AR-6, CO-9, LA-9, MO-11, NC-15, TN-11, VA-13
(84+133=217)

IN PLAY: NV-5, OH-20, WI-10 (35)

Kerry 286 - Bush 217 - ?? 35

Ed Fitzgerald | 7/06/2004 11:55:00 PM | | | del.icio.us | GO: TOP OF HOME PAGE

 

Breaking the break

Obviously, I've taken a little blogging break in the last week. It wasn't planned or anything, nor was I throwing up my hands in disgust, it just seemed to happen. The holiday was here, I was feeling a little run-down (still a bit in recuperative mode from my recent heart attack), I didn't seem to have anything in particular to say that wasn't been said already by someone else, I wanted to spend a little time with my family, there were some great baseball games lined up (Yankees and Red Sox, Yankees and Mets), and I still had a pile of reading backed up that I wanted to get into -- it all seemed to say: "Take it easy, Ed" and so that's what I did. I'll be easing back into things, and catching up on correspondance (sorry, Roger, my bad) in the next couple of days (I hope), but I thought I'd at least take a minute and deal with the biggest news of the moment.

I woke up this morning to the welcome news that Kerry had picked Edwards as his running mate. This made me happy not only because Edwards was my choice as the best person for the job considering all the possibilities, but because the scuttlebutt in the blogosphere (and on the cover of today's NY Post as well) was that it was going to be Gephardt, and that thought had me somewhat depressed, since it was my belief that if Kerry had chosen Gephardt, there was a very real possibility that we would lose this election big time. Now, I'm more optimistic than ever.

Ed Fitzgerald | 7/06/2004 11:49:00 PM | | | del.icio.us | GO: TOP OF HOME PAGE







by

Ed Fitzgerald

Clowns to the left of me,
Jokers to the right,
Here I am...
site feed
2008 rules of thumb
Progressive populism!
Economic insecurity is key
Restore the balance
Cast the candidate
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Calm,calming,assured,reassuring
Iraq, not "national security"
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recent posts
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topics
a progressive slogan
Fairness, progress and prosperity, because we're all in this together.

"I had my own blog for a while, but I decided to go back to just pointless, incessant barking."
(Alex Gregory - The New Yorker)
new york city
another progressive slogan
The greatest good for the greatest number, with dignity for all.
reference & fact check
iraq
write me
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evolution v. creationism
humanism, skepticism
& progressive religiosity
more links
election prediction
HOUSE
Democrats 230 (+27) - Republicans 205

Actual:
Democrats 233 (+30) - Republicans 201 - TBD 1 [FL-13]

SENATE
Democrats 50 (+5) - Republicans 50

Actual:
Democrats 51 (+6) - Republicans 49

ELECTION PROJECTIONS SURVEY
netroots candidates
unfutz
awards and nominations
Never a bridesmaid...

...and never a bride, either!!

what I've been reading
Martin van Creveld - The Transformation of War

Jay Feldman - When the Mississippi Ran Backwards

Martin van Creveld - The Rise and Decline of the State

Alfred W. Crosby - America's Forgotten Pandemic (1989)
bush & company are...
absolutist
aggresive
anti-Constitutional
anti-intellectual
arrogant
authoritarian
blame-placers
blameworthy
blinkered
buckpassers
calculating
class warriors
clueless
compassionless
con artists
conniving
conscienceless
conspiratorial
corrupt
craven
criminal
crooked
culpable
damaging
dangerous
deadly
debased
deceitful
delusional
despotic
destructive
devious
disconnected
dishonorable
dishonest
disingenuous
disrespectful
dogmatic
doomed
fanatical
fantasists
felonious
hateful
heinous
hostile to science
hypocritical
ideologues
ignorant
immoral
incompetent
indifferent
inflexible
insensitive
insincere
irrational
isolated
kleptocratic
lacking in empathy
lacking in public spirit
liars
mendacious
misleading
mistrustful
non-rational
not candid
not "reality-based"
not trustworthy
oblivious
oligarchic
opportunistic
out of control
pernicious
perverse
philistine
plutocratic
prevaricating
propagandists
rapacious
relentless
reprehensible
rigid
scandalous
schemers
selfish
secretive
shameless
sleazy
tricky
unAmerican
uncaring
uncivil
uncompromising
unconstitutional
undemocratic
unethical
unpopular
unprincipled
unrealistic
unreliable
unrepresentative
unscientific
unscrupulous
unsympathetic
venal
vile
virtueless
warmongers
wicked
without integrity
wrong-headed

Thanks to: Breeze, Chuck, Ivan Raikov, Kaiju, Kathy, Roger, Shirley, S.M. Dixon
recently seen
Island in the Sky (1952)

Robot Chicken

The Family Guy

House M.D. (2004-7)
i've got a little list...
Elliott Abrams
Steven Abrams (Kansas BofE)
David Addington
Howard Fieldstead Ahmanson
Roger Ailes (FNC)
John Ashcroft
Bob Bennett
William Bennett
Joe Biden
John Bolton
Alan Bonsell (Dover BofE)
Pat Buchanan
Bill Buckingham (Dover BofE)
George W. Bush
Saxby Chambliss
Bruce Chapman (DI)
Dick Cheney
Lynne Cheney
Richard Cohen
The Coors Family
Ann Coulter
Michael Crichton
Lanny Davis
Tom DeLay
William A. Dembski
James Dobson
Leonard Downie (WaPo)
Dinesh D’Souza
Gregg Easterbrook
Jerry Falwell
Douglas Feith
Arthur Finkelstein
Bill Frist
George Gilder
Newt Gingrich
John Gibson (FNC)
Alberto Gonzalez
Rudolph Giuliani
Sean Hannity
Katherine Harris
Fred Hiatt (WaPo)
Christopher Hitchens
David Horowitz
Don Imus
James F. Inhofe
Jesse Jackson
Philip E. Johnson
Daryn Kagan
Joe Klein
Phil Kline
Ron Klink
William Kristol
Ken Lay
Joe Lieberman
Rush Limbaugh
Trent Lott
Frank Luntz


"American Fundamentalists"
by Joel Pelletier
(click on image for more info)


Chris Matthews
Mitch McConnell
Stephen C. Meyer (DI)
Judith Miller (ex-NYT)
Zell Miller
Tom Monaghan
Sun Myung Moon
Roy Moore
Dick Morris
Rupert Murdoch
Ralph Nader
John Negroponte
Grover Norquist
Robert Novak
Ted Olson
Elspeth Reeve (TNR)
Bill O'Reilly
Martin Peretz (TNR)
Richard Perle
Ramesh Ponnuru
Ralph Reed
Pat Robertson
Karl Rove
Tim Russert
Rick Santorum
Richard Mellon Scaife
Antonin Scalia
Joe Scarborough
Susan Schmidt (WaPo)
Bill Schneider
Al Sharpton
Ron Silver
John Solomon (WaPo)
Margaret Spellings
Kenneth Starr
Randall Terry
Clarence Thomas
Richard Thompson (TMLC)
Donald Trump
Richard Viguere
Donald Wildmon
Paul Wolfowitz
Bob Woodward (WaPo)
John Yoo
guest-blogging
All the fine sites I've
guest-blogged for:




Be sure to visit them all!!
recent listening
Smash Mouth - Summer Girl

Poulenc - Piano Music

Pop Ambient 2007
influences
John Adams
Laurie Anderson
Aphex Twin
Isaac Asimov
Fred Astaire
J.G. Ballard
The Beatles
Busby Berkeley
John Cage
"Catch-22"
Raymond Chandler
Arthur C. Clarke
Elvis Costello
Richard Dawkins
Daniel C. Dennett
Philip K. Dick
Kevin Drum
Brian Eno
Fela
Firesign Theatre
Eliot Gelwan
William Gibson
Philip Glass
David Gordon
Stephen Jay Gould
Dashiell Hammett
"The Harder They Come"
Robert Heinlein
Joseph Heller
Frank Herbert
Douglas Hofstadter
Bill James
Gene Kelly
Stanley Kubrick
Jefferson Airplane
Ursula K. LeGuin
The Marx Brothers
John McPhee
Harry Partch
Michael C. Penta
Monty Python
Orbital
Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger
"The Prisoner"
"The Red Shoes"
Steve Reich
Terry Riley
Oliver Sacks
Erik Satie
"Singin' in the Rain"
Stephen Sondheim
The Specials
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J.R.R. Tolkien
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Yes
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original content
© 2003-2008
Ed Fitzgerald

=o=

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