• current status
  Kerry 273 - Bush 233 - ?? 32 (FL, NV)
  (was: 247-275-16)
  
  
• election day projection
  Kerry 255 - Bush 263 - ?? 20 (NM, NV, WI)
  (was: 307-226-5)

Federal Review (9/7 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 249 - Bush 289
(not updated)

First in the Nation (9/13):
Kerry 254 - Bush 275 - ?? 9 (CO)
(no change)

Ed Fitzgerald (9/10):
Kerry 305 - Bush 233
(was: 300-238)

Matthew Hubbard (9/11):
Kerry 259 - Bush 243 - ?? 36 (CO, FL)
(was: 244-244-50)

Knight Ridder (9/10 - news report)
Kerry 168 - Bush 166 - ?? 204
(news report)

LA Times (9/12):
Kerry 146 - Bush 168 - ?? 224
(was: 161-147-230)

Leip Atlas (500 "most recent" user predictions -- of 1282 total; 9/12):

• state by state medians
  Kerry 264 - Bush 274
  (no change)
  
  
• overall medians
  Kerry 264 - Bush 252 - ?? 21
  (was: 280-258)
  
  
• state polls aggregate
  Kerry 211 - Bush 237 - ?? 90
  (was: 211-216-111)

(Note: Leip has started to provide compiled figures for the 500 most recently posted entries, which I'm now using in hopes that they will more accurately reflect the current status.)

MyDD (9/12)
Kerry 305 - Bush 233
(was: 276-262)

My Election Analysis (9/7):
Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(was: 288-250)

Newsweek (9/6 - new):
Kerry 231 - Bush 291 - ?? 16 (CO, IA)
(was: 269-260-9)

(Note: The Newsweek map shows 13 swing states. I've derived the numbers here by looking at each state's latest poll, as provided by Newsweek, and assigning each state accordingly.)

Our Campaigns (9/12):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(no change)

Pollbooth (9/10)
Kerry 242 - Bush 247 - ?? 49 (FL, IA, NM, WI)
(was: 254-247-37)

Pollkatz (9/7):
Kerry 282 - Bush 256
(was: 271-267)

President Elect 2004 (8/29 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(not updated)

Race2004 (9/12):

• current poll status (new)
  Kerry 216 - Bush 216 - ?? 106
  (was: 211-157-170)
  
  
• election held today
  Kerry 311 - Bush 227
  (was: 291-225-22)

Rasmussen (9/6 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 175 - Bush 213 - ?? 150
(not updated)

Real Clear Politics (9/12 - new)
Kerry 228 - Bush 269 - ?? 41 (NM, NV, PA, WI)
(new to survey)

Running the Numbers (9/11):
Kerry 263 - Bush 275
(was: 292-246)

Larry Sabato (9/7 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(not updated)

Samboni's State-by-State (9/10):
Kerry 275 - Bush 254 - ?? 9 (CO)
(was: 258-264-16)

Benjamin Schak (9/5 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 253 - Bush 285
(not updated)

Robert Silvey (9/9):
Kerry 291 - Bush 238 - ?? 9 (CO)
(no change)

Tradesports/intrade (9/12):

• Fitzgerald conversion [50 = toss-up]
  Kerry 254 - Bush 284
  (no change)
  
  
• Geekmedia conversion [45-55 = toss-up]
  Kerry 254 - Bush 274 - ?? 10 (WI)
  (was: 254-284)

(Note: For further information on converting Tradesports data see here and here.)

Tripias (9/12):
Kerry 275 - Bush 263
(was: 244-294)

TruthIsAll (9/12):
Kerry 295 - Bush 243
(was 290-248)

Sam Wang (9/11):
Kerry 279 - Bush 259
(was: 274-264)

Washington Dispatch (9/5 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 233 - Bush 305
(not updated)

Washington Post (9/12 - news report)
Kerry 207 - Bush 217 - ?? 114
(news report)

Wayne in Missouri (9/10):
Kerry 222 - Bush 316
(was: 257-281)

David Wissing (9/11):
Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(was: 233-305)

Young Conservatives (9/10):
Kerry 211 - Bush 295 - ?? 32 (IA, NJ, WI)
(was: 188-237-113)

Zogby/WSJ (9/7):
Kerry 307 - Bush 231
(was: 286-214-38)

2.004k.com (9/12):
Kerry 243 - Bush 265 - ?? 30 (CO, IA, ME, MN)
(was: 226-286-26)


STATS

49 SITES
(was: 48 - 4 dropped, 2 added, plus 3 news reports)

Kerry winning: 14 (was: 15)
Kerry ahead: 4 (6)

Tied: 1 (1)

Bush winning: 20 (20)
Bush ahead: 10 (6)

        gained    lost    no change
Kerry   17 (5)   11 (26)   8 (9)
Bush    15 (26)  15 (5)    6 (9)
??       9 (7)    9 (6)    4 (4)

Site no change: 5 (7)
Site not updated: 8 (4)

New: 2 (6)
News reports: 3

Reinstated: 0
Temporarily dropped: 4


AVERAGES
MEAN: Kerry 249 - Bush 253 - ?? 36
(was: 254-255-29)

MEDIAN: Kerry 254 - Bush 259 (remainder: 25)
(was: 254-263-21)

MODE: Kerry 254 - Bush 233 (remainder: 51)
(was: 254-284)

• Note: I've dropped the averages for "Sites with no ??," since they didn't seem to be very helpful. (If anyone misses them and wants them back, please let me know.)
  
  
• "Mean" is what we usually call "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
  
  
• "Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
  
  
• "Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times.

RANGE
Kerry max: 311 (327)
Kerry min: 146 (161)

Bush max: 316 (300)
Bush min: 166 (147)

SUMMARY

A very difficult week to categorize by the evidence of the electoral college trackers. On the one hand, Bush is clearly still slightly ahead at this point (20 sites have Bush winning, 30 winning or ahead, while only 14 show Kerry winning, 18 winning or ahead; and Bush is ahead on mean and median), but Kerry gained on more sites than he lost on, whereas Bush gained and lost equally. Bush was not able to consolidate his substantial gains of last week, and, in fact, lost a little ground, but Kerry also wasn't able to take advantage of that and stayed static or lost a little himself.

Overall, a week of stasis or minor losses for both candidates. Kerry sits at 249 to 254 electoral votes, while Bush is just slightly ahead of him with 253 to 259. (Both are below the 270 vote threshhold.) Whatever "convention bounce" Bush received seems to have played itself out.


UPDATES ETC.

• Invariably, no matter how many times I check and recheck them, immediately after I post the survey a number of sites will update their numbers -- sometimes I suspect they're just waiting for me to publish before they make their changes -- so for a few days (assuming I have access to the web) I'll update figures, make corrections, and add any new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site as well.
  
  
• (9/13) One prediction site I wanted to note, but didn't want to include in the survey, is SqueezeVote.com, which issues a daily Electoral College prediction map based on the sales of George W. Bush and John Kerry squeeze dolls. As of 9/12, their numbers were 267-132-139 -- but the map is decidedly odd: the "swing states" include TX and GA!
  
  
• (9/13) Alan Reifman has an interesting essay on whether pollsters should weigh their poll results for party i.d. here. There's already been some discussion about it over on MyDD.

PREVIOUS

• Sept 6
• August 29
• August 22
• August 15
• August 7
• August 1
• July 25
• July 20
• July 6
• June 25

E.C.

FEC
NARA
Web Zine

NOT INCLUDED

The following sites have been removed for the reasons indicated:

AP (9/4):
Kerry 211 - Bush 237 - ?? 90
(one-time news report)

CNN (8/27):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(one-time news report)

mattb25 (8/19)
Kerry 327 - Bush 211
(out of date)

National Journal's Hotline (9/2):
Kerry 231 - Bush 264 - ?? 43 (AR, IA, OH, WI)
(no access to site)


The following sites were removed last week for the reasons listed:

J. Daniel Behun (8/2):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(out of date)

Fagan: Electline (8/8):
Kerry 238 - Bush 300
(out of date, no website)

hR's (8/29)
Kerry 247 - Bush 202 - ?? 88
(site's numbers don't add up)

Kenneth Quinnell (8/8):
Kerry 303 - Bush 207 - ?? 28
(out of date)


NOTES

From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.

I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.

My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.

Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. The time period I'll keep a stagnant site on the list is a little under a month right now, but that will tighten up as we get closer to the election.

One-time Electoral College status check articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single interation of the survey, unless they are replaced by a new article.

As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.