Seven days pass, and, lo and behold, my last survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast / scoreboard / map sites is once again passe, so let's check in and see what the trackers have to say.
Larry Allen (9/6 - new) Kerry 254 - Bush 233 - ?? 51 (CO, FL, NV, WI) (new to survey)
MEDIAN: Kerry 254 - Bush 259 (remainder: 25) (was: 254-263-21)
MODE: Kerry 254 - Bush 233 (remainder: 51) (was: 254-284)
Note: I've dropped the averages for "Sites with no ??," since they didn't seem to be very helpful. (If anyone misses them and wants them back, please let me know.)
"Mean" is what we usually call "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
"Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
"Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times.
RANGE Kerry max: 311 (327) Kerry min: 146 (161)
Bush max: 316 (300) Bush min: 166 (147)
A very difficult week to categorize by the evidence of the electoral college trackers. On the one hand, Bush is clearly still slightly ahead at this point (20 sites have Bush winning, 30 winning or ahead, while only 14 show Kerry winning, 18 winning or ahead; and Bush is ahead on mean and median), but Kerry gained on more sites than he lost on, whereas Bush gained and lost equally. Bush was not able to consolidate his substantial gains of last week, and, in fact, lost a little ground, but Kerry also wasn't able to take advantage of that and stayed static or lost a little himself.
Overall, a week of stasis or minor losses for both candidates. Kerry sits at 249 to 254 electoral votes, while Bush is just slightly ahead of him with 253 to 259. (Both are below the 270 vote threshhold.) Whatever "convention bounce" Bush received seems to have played itself out.
Invariably, no matter how many times I check and recheck them, immediately after I post the survey a number of sites will update their numbers -- sometimes I suspect they're just waiting for me to publish before they make their changes -- so for a few days (assuming I have access to the web) I'll update figures, make corrections, and add any new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site as well.
(9/13) One prediction site I wanted to note, but didn't want to include in the survey, is SqueezeVote.com, which issues a daily Electoral College prediction map based on the sales of George W. Bush and John Kerry squeeze dolls. As of 9/12, their numbers were 267-132-139 -- but the map is decidedly odd: the "swing states" include TX and GA!
(9/13) Alan Reifman has an interesting essay on whether pollsters should weigh their poll results for party i.d. here. There's already been some discussion about it over on MyDD.
From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.
I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.
My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.
Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. The time period I'll keep a stagnant site on the list is a little under a month right now, but that will tighten up as we get closer to the election.
One-time Electoral College status check articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single interation of the survey, unless they are replaced by a new article.
As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.
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Thanks to: Breeze, Chuck, Ivan Raikov, Kaiju, Kathy, Roger, Shirley, S.M. Dixon
i've got a little list...
Steven Abrams (Kansas BofE)
Howard Fieldstead Ahmanson
Roger Ailes (FNC)
Alan Bonsell (Dover BofE)
Bill Buckingham (Dover BofE)
George W. Bush
Bruce Chapman (DI)
The Coors Family
William A. Dembski
Leonard Downie (WaPo)
John Gibson (FNC)
Fred Hiatt (WaPo)
James F. Inhofe
Philip E. Johnson
by Joel Pelletier
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Stephen C. Meyer (DI)
Judith Miller (ex-NYT)
Sun Myung Moon
Elspeth Reeve (TNR)
Martin Peretz (TNR)
Richard Mellon Scaife
Susan Schmidt (WaPo)
John Solomon (WaPo)
Richard Thompson (TMLC)
Bob Woodward (WaPo)
All the fine sites I've
Be sure to visit them all!!
Arthur C. Clarke
Daniel C. Dennett
Philip K. Dick
Stephen Jay Gould
"The Harder They Come"
Ursula K. LeGuin
The Marx Brothers
Michael C. Penta
Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger
"The Red Shoes"
"Singin' in the Rain"
Talking Heads/David Byrne
Hunter S. Thompson
"2001: A Space Odyssey"
If you read unfutz at least once a week, without fail, your teeth will be whiter and your love life more satisfying.
If you read it daily, I will come to your house, kiss you on the forehead, bathe your feet, and cook pancakes for you, with yummy syrup and everything.
(You might want to keep a watch on me, though, just to avoid the syrup ending up on your feet and the pancakes on your forehead.)
Finally, on a more mundane level, since I don't believe that anyone actually reads this stuff, I make this offer: I'll give five bucks to the first person who contacts me and asks for it -- and, believe me, right now five bucks might as well be five hundred, so this is no trivial offer.