• current status
  Kerry 238 - Bush 296 - ?? 4 (NH)
  (was: 234-280-24)
  
  
• election day projection
  Kerry 179 - Bush 345 - ?? 14 (ME, MN)
  (was: 192-336-10)

Federal Review (10/5):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(no change)

First in the Nation (10/4):
Kerry 251 - Bush 287
(no change)

Ed Fitzgerald (10/4):
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(no change)

(Note: see "Updates" below.)

Hardball Horserace (10/5 - new):
Kerry 200 - Bush 217 - ?? 121
(new to survey)

Matthew Hubbard (10/2):
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(no change)

LA Times (10/4):
Kerry 153 - Bush 177 - ?? 208
(was: 153-173-212)

Dave Leip's Atlas (500 "most recent" user predictions; 10/4):

• state by state medians
  Kerry 247 - Bush 291
  (was: 254-284)
  
  
• overall medians
  Kerry 253 - Bush 285
  (was: 250-257-31)
  
  
• state polls aggregate
  Kerry 181 - Bush 266 - ?? 91
  (was: 181-259-98)

mattb25 (9/22 - corrected; not updated since last survey)
Kerry 291 - Bush 247
(not updated)

MyDD (10/4):
Kerry 267 - Bush 271
(was: 274-264)

My Election Analysis (9/29):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(no change)

National Journal's Hotline (via C-SPAN) (10/1 - restored):
Kerry 185 - Bush 291 - ?? 62
(was: 231-264-43 on 9/2)

Newsweek (9/27 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 198 - Bush 192 - ?? 148
(not updated)

Pollbooth (10/1)
Kerry 220 - Bush 291 - ?? 27 (ME-1, NM, PA)
(no change)

Pollkatz (10/4):
Kerry 266 - Bush 272
(no change)

President Elect 2004 (9/29):
Kerry 245 - Bush 293
(was: 244-294)

Race2004 (10/4):

• current poll status
  Kerry 165 - Bush 285 - ?? 88
  (was: 182-238-118)
  
  
• election held today
  Kerry 249 - Bush 289
  (was: 247-291)

Rasmussen (9/30 - corrected):
Kerry 169 - Bush 213 - ?? 156
(was: 211-213-114)

Real Clear Politics (10/4)
Kerry 200 - Bush 291 - ?? 47 (MN, NH, NM, OR, PA)
(was: 221-291-26)

Red State Blue State (10/1 - new):
Kerry 204 - Bush 334
(new to survey)

Larry Sabato (10/4):
Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(no change)

Samboni's State-by-State (10/3):
Kerry 212 - Bush 295 - ?? 31 (MD, NH, MI)
(was: 233-276-29)

Alcon San Croix (10/3):
Kerry 237 - Bush 292 - ?? 9 (NH, NM)
(was: 243-291-4)

Robert Silvey (9/30):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(was: 222-316)

Slate (10/4 - new):
Kerry 190 - Bush 348
(new to survey; was 217-321 on 9/26)

Tradesports/intrade (10/4):

• Fitzgerald conversion [50 = toss-up]
  Kerry 243 - Bush 295
  (no change)
  
  
• Geekmedia conversion [45-55 = toss-up]
  Kerry 243 - Bush 291 - ?? 4 (ME)
  (no change)

(Note: For further information on converting Tradesports data see here and here.)

Tripias (10/1):
Kerry 242 - Bush 296
(was: 235-303)

TruthIsAll (10/4):
Kerry 280 - Bush 258
(was: 300-238)

Sam Wang's Meta-Analysis (10/4):
Kerry 235 - Bush 303
(was: 246-292)

Washington Dispatch (10/3):
Kerry 225 - Bush 313
(was: 235-303)

Wayne in Missouri (10/2):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(was: 236-302)

David Wissing (10/4):
Kerry 217 - Bush 321
(was: 235-303)

Zogby/WSJ (9/20 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 297 - Bush 241
(not updated)

(Note: see "Updates" below.)

2.004k.com (10/4):
Kerry 207 - Bush 300 - ?? 31 (MN, PA)
(was: 211-283-44)


STATS

50 SITES
(was: 49 - 5 dropped, 1 restored, 5 new)

Kerry winning: 3 (was: 4)
Kerry ahead: 1 (1)

Tied: 0 (0)

Bush winning: 39 (36)
Bush ahead: 7 (9)

        gained      lost     no change
Kerry    9 (26)    17 (14)    17 (5)
Bush    16 (14)    10 (27)    17 (4)
??       7  (8)     8 (11)     0 (4)

Site no change: 15 (3)
Site not updated: 3 (4)

New: 5 (0)
News reports: 1 (2)

Restored: 1 (1)
Dropped: 5 (1)


AVERAGES
MEAN: Kerry 228 - Bush 282 - ?? 28 [corrected]
(was: 231-277-30)

MEDIAN: Kerry 237.5 - Bush 291 (remainder: 9.5)
(was: 237-291-10)

MODE: Kerry 243 - Bush 295 [corrected]
(no change)

• "Mean" is what is colloquially called "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
  
  
• "Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
  
  
• "Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times.

RANGE
Kerry max: 297 (300)
Kerry min: 153 (143)

Bush max: 348 (341)
Bush min: 177 (163)

SUMMARY

This week's survey results are the very picture of stasis. Fifteen sites (almost one third of the survey) showed no change from last week's numbers (although some of them had changed in the meantime, they changed back by the time I took my sample), and several other sites showed no change for one of the two candidates. In addition, when a candidate's numbers did change, they did so by very small amounts.

Still, since Bush is ahead at this point (39 of the 50 sites show him winning, and 7 others show him ahead), stasis works in his favor, as Kerry needs to overcome his deficit to win the election. Right now, Bush has 282 to 291 votes, and Kerry has 228 to 243. That means that the margin between them remains at around 50 votes, the same as last week.

(Just a reminder that we're just starting to get state polling which was done totally after the first debate.)


UPDATES ETC.

• For a few days after I publish the survey, I'll update figures, make corrections, and add new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site as well.
  
  
• The next iteration of the survey will be on Monday October 11th.
  
  
• (10/4) For a different style of election prediction, check out The Mad Dog Weekly. And then there's this state-by-state prediction.
  
  
• (10/5) I've added a new site, Amoro. It's unclear how often it's updated, so we'll see if it lasts.
  
  
• (10/5) Thanks to Matt Nelson, another site new to the survey, Hardball Horserace. I've also added a site by CBS.
  
  
• (10/5) The staff and contributors of The Gadflyer make their election predictions. Thirteen out of 18 pick Kerry to win. Kerry averaged 284 electoral votes to Bush's 254 (corrected). (These numbers have not been included in this survey.)
  
  
• (10/6) I had been expecting Zogby to update their numbers, and had hoped that it would happen in time to include them in this iteration of the survey, but instead of coming out on Monday (as they have most usually done), they came out on Wednesday the 6th, probably to insure that all the quesioning happened after the first presidential debate. For whatever reason, they're a little too late to include here. I won't add them in, but their new estimation is Kerry 322 - Bush 216.
  
  
• (10/7) Mark Durrenberger has created an interesting site using assumptions discussed by Guy Molyneaux in an article in The American Prospect. His current numbers (which I'll be including as of the next iteration of the survery) are Kerry 310 - Bush 228.
  
  
• (10/7) I've updated my numbers based as a plethora of state polling that just came in: Kerry 284 - Bush 254 (not included in this survey).
  
  
• (10/7) Brian Calhoun has brought his site, Election Central 2004, to my attention, and I'll begin including it in the survey next time out. His current numbers as of 10/6: Kerry 233 - Bush 295 - ?? 10 (corrected).
  
  
• (10/7) I'm playing around with another way of graphing the data I've collected in putting together the survey: instead of lumping it together in weekly averages, I've charted each site's numbers each week as a seperate point of data and applied a polynomial trendline. The results can be seen just below the regular graph.
  
  
• (10/8) Matthew Gross challenges fellow bloggers to post their electoral predictions before tonight's debate, 25 days out from Election Day. I've posted mine here. (10/9): Also, Meteor Blades makes a call for predictions on Daily Kos.
  
  
• (10/8) I came across another site that I'll start including as of the next survey, Search The Links. Their current status is Kerry 259 - Bush 266 - ?? 13 (ME, NH, WV).
  
  
• (10/9) The Political Oddsmaker of Campaigns and Elections magazine (Ron Faucheux) is finally posting state-by-state predictions and Electoral College numbers. Current (as of 9/30): Kerry 248 - Bush 279 - ?? 11.
  
  
• (10/9) I transcribed the 9/30 Rasmussen numbers wrong, which I've now corrected. They were right in my calculation of the averages. Currently, as of 10/7, Rasmussen has Kerry 169 - Bush 240 - ?? 129.
  
  
• (10/11) I had mattb25's number from 9/22 reversed. I've corrected them now. As a result, Kerry's mean goes up a point to 228, Bush's mean goes down a point to 282, and Bush's mode changes from 291 to 295.

PREVIOUS

• Sept 27
• Sept 19
• Sept 13
• Sept 6
• August 29
• August 22
• August 15
• August 7
• August 1
• July 25
• July 20
• July 6
• June 25

E.C.

FEC
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Web Zine

NOTES

From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.

I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.

My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.

Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. For the first half of October I'll keep a "stagnant" site in the survey about 2 weeks. From the middle of October until the election, that will tighten up to a week at most.

One-time Electoral College analysis articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single interation of the survey, unless they are replaced by a new article.

As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral
College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.


NOT INCLUDED

The following sites have been removed for the reasons indicated:

Bloomberg (9/27):
Kerry 143 - Bush 163 - ?? 232
(one-time news report)

Chuck Buckley (9/23):
Kerry 300 - Bush 233
(ceased updating)

Fagan: Electline (9/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 242 - Bush 296
(out of date)

Benjamin Schak (9/15):
Kerry 221 - Bush 317
(out of date)

Young Conservatives (9/16):
Kerry 180 - Bush 341 - ?? 17 (MI)
(out of date)


The following sites were removed in previous weeks for the reasons listed:

Human Events (9/17 - removed 9/27):):
Kerry 211 - Bush 327
(one-time news report)

Knight Ridder (9/10 - removed 9/19):
Kerry 168 - Bush 166 - ?? 204
(one-time news report)

Our Campaigns (9/12 - removed 9/19):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(numbers have never changed since being added to the survey)

Running the Numbers (9/11 - removed 9/19):
Kerry 263 - Bush 275
(on hiatus)

Washington Post (9/12 - removed 9/19):
Kerry 207 - Bush 217 - ?? 114
(one-time news report)

AP (9/4 - removed 9/13):
Kerry 211 - Bush 237 - ?? 90
(one-time news report)

J. Daniel Behun (8/2 - removed 9/6):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(out of date)

hR's (8/29 - removed 9/6)
Kerry 247 - Bush 202 - ?? 88
(site's numbers don't add up)

Kenneth Quinnell (8/8 - removed 9/6):
Kerry 303 - Bush 207 - ?? 28
(out of date)