Kerry 264 - Bush 231 - ?? 43 (FL, MO, WV)
(was: 291-222-25)

or, with toss-ups assigned (updated)

Kerry 275 - Bush 263
(was: 311-227)

Now, on to predictions and projections on other sites:

[Note: From each of these websites I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible, so that what I'm giving is something approaching a snapshot of what people think is the current status of the Electoral College. I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation. -- Ed]

Chris Bowers (7/23):
Kerry 322 - Bush 216
(no change)

Chuck Buckley (7/24):
Kerry 310 - Bush 228
(was: 311-227)

Charlie Cook (7/6 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 207 - Bush 211 - ?? 120
(no update)

Dales' EC Breakdown (7/24):
Kerry 274 - Bush 253 - ?? 11 (MO)
(was: 282-242-14)

DC Political Report (7/23):
Kerry 224 - Bush 173 - ?? 141
(was: 251-183-104)

Election Projection (7/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 327 - Bush 211
(no update)

Electoral-vote.com (7/24):
Kerry 310 - Bush 217 - ?? 11 (TN)
(was: 327-211)

Federal Review (7/20 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 292 - Bush 246
(no update)

Running the Numbers (was "Kevin's Marginalia") (7/22):
Kerry 291 - Bush 247
(no change)

LA Times (7/20):
Kerry 186 - Bush 143 - ?? 219
(was: 169-154-215)

Leip Atlas (810 user predictions compiled) (7/25):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(no change)

Pollkatz (7/23):
Kerry 322 - Bush 216
(was: 356-182)

Race2004 (7/25):
Kerry 275 - Bush 250 - ?? 13 (VA)
(was: 286-252)

Rasmussen (7/23):
Kerry 227 - Bush 208 - ?? 103
(was: 254-197-87)

Larry Sabato ("June" - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 274 - Bush 264
(no update)

Samboni's State-by-State (7/24):
Kerry 310 - Bush 217 - ?? 11 (TN)
(was: 337-190-11)

Benjamin Schak (7/17 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 316 - Bush 222
(no update)

*Tradesports (7/25):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(no change)

Sam Wang (7/23):
Kerry 291 - Bush 247
(no change)

Wayne in Missouri (7/23):
Kerry 302 - Bush 236
(was: 322-216)

Dave Wissing (7/25 - updated):
Kerry 290 - Bush 248
(was: 306-232)

2.004k.com (7/24):
Kerry 305 - Bush 223 - ?? 10 (MN)
(was: 302-236)

[*There's some controversy about what the best method is for converting the Tradesports contract data into an electoral college result. For a sometimes informative and sometimes snippy discussion (mea culpa) on that subject, see the comment thread here. Suffice to say that for my purposes here I've done the conversion by assigning any state in which the value of the Bush-wins contract is over 50 to Bush, and any state under 50 to Kerry. That seems to me to be the simplest and most transparent way to go about it, but there is disagreement about that, and another method has been suggested as being better. At this time, I am unconvinced of its merits.]

23 SITES
Kerry winning: 17 (was: 18)
Kerry ahead: 3 (was: 3)
Bush winning: 2 (was: 1)
Bush ahead: 1 (was: 1)

Kerry gained: 2
Kerry lost: 11
Bush gained: 9
Bush lost: 4
?? gained: 4
?? lost: 2
No change: 5
No update: 5

As the summary indicates, although Kerry is still out in front in terms of how many sites project him to win the Electoral College votes, he did generally lose ground in many of them. Still, losing ground when you're ahead is a far cry from being behind and having to catch up, which is the story the AP "analysis" tried to sell.

If anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list.


Update: David Wissing's page is back up (with a new url), so I've updated his numbers and the summary. Also, my own prediction changed as a result of a new poll in Ohio, so I've changed the links and updated the numbers.

Update (7/26): National Journal's Hotline Weekly (no link because it's subscription only -- however during the conventions you can get a temporary free sub) has two different Electoral College counts today, their own, and that of Research 2000:

National Journal (7/26):
Kerry 261 - Bush 202 - ?? 75

Research 2000 (7/26):
Kerry 250 - Bush 211 - ?? 77

It's amusing that Hotline Weekly barely even attempts to hide their pro-Bush bias. For instance, they slugged their story about the Electoral College count not with the fact that Kerry was ahead, but that Bush was "OVER" (their caps) 200, as if being over 200 was some kind of big achievement for Bush.

In fact, as they point out themselves (reiterating a current Republican talking point), re-apportionment has meant that simply re-capturing the states won in 2000 puts Kerry at a disadvantage, since they now have 260 electoral votes to Bush's 278 (as compared to 2000's 267 to 271), which means, of course, that Kerry's current status puts him in even better shape than it appears. By Hotline's count, Kerry now has over 100% of Gore's equivalent electoral votes, while Bush, the incumbent, has only 78% of his 2000 votes. I'd hardly headline that as good news for Bush, but Hotline appears to believe it is.

Update (7/27): The new Zogby battleground numbers provoke a few changes, the most consequential of which is that Ohio (currently a toss-up assigned to Bush) goes into the Bush camp. I've updated the numbers above, and the link to my latest prediction.

Update (7/28): In response to a request, I've made the note which precedes the survey more specific about what criteria I use to select the numbers I present from each website.