A week full of convention, protests and tropical storms has passed by since my last survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast / scoreboard / map sites, so it's once again time to see what the prognosticators have to say about the state of things now that both conventions have wrapped up and the main part of the campaign has begun.
Note that I've temporarily removed a number of sites that haven't been updated in a while. As we get closer to election day, I think only the freshest estimations should be included. Right now about a month is the maximum I'll let a site go before removing it.
Also, although I said last week that I wouldn't, I have decided to include Electoral College counts issued by major media outlets, like AP and CNN, even if they aren't part of an ongoing feature the way the LA Times and Newsweek counts are. However, I'll include them only for a single iteration of the survey, and remove them the next time if they haven't been updated.
AP (9/4 - new): Kerry 211 - Bush 237 - ?? 90 (new to survey)
The calendar has essentially turned back 2 months, and Bush has regained almost all the ground he lost to Kerry in that time. From the evidence of the electoral vote trackers, the race has moved just past being tied, with an advantage for Bush, who has about 255 to 261 electoral votes, while Kerry is clearly parked at 254. (The remainder of the electoral votes are tied or otherwise unassigned.)
Of the 48 sites, 20 show Bush winning and another 6 show him ahead. Fifteen sites show Kerry winning and 6 show him ahead. One site has the race tied.
Bush's gains are most probably not due to a "convention bounce", since of the national polls which have come out recently, only one (CNN/USA Today/Gallup) was taken totally after the convention -- the others overlapped with it -- and the same is true of the state polls which have been released since the convention's end. Since national and state polls comprise the data used by the majority of the trackers here, it's hard to argue that the Bush lead they show came as a result of the convention. This means that if there is a convention bounce for Bush still to show up, we should expect to see Bush's lead increase in the next week or so as polls reflecting it (especially state polls) are released.
For a few days after I publish the survey, I'll update figures, make corrections, and add new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site as well.
The new Zogby Interactive/WSJ Battleground polls came out on Tuesday, carrying a Electoral College status of 307-238. Polling was conducted 8/30 - 9/3, overlapping the convention. Because these results came out just after I had finished the survey, I would normally have updated the Zogby entry and added them into my stats and averages, but time constraints (on me) prevented me from doing so. Now that we're just a few days away from my next iteration, I'll just hold off -- which in a way is good, since then we'll see the Zogby results and any effect they might have on other sites' results at the same time.
(9/10) In his 9/9 update, Chris Bowers notes an interesting anomaly:
Kerry holds a lead in the Electoral College [291-247] largely due to a weird statistical quirk. While Bush is ahead in the national vote projection (49.43-48.57), solid EVs (196-179), EV's by more than three (221-205), right now I project almost every single close state to swing Kerry's way. [...] The scenario is actually more likely that many of us realize. While most recent polls have shown Bush ahead nationally, Zogby, Rasmussen and Gallup all showed Kerry with a lead in the "battleground." One problem with Bush's strategy of solidifying his base while Kerry goes after swing voters is that while it will probably lead to red states looking a lot more strong and blue ones, it also concedes Kerry an advantage in the legally binding purple states.
I wonder if any of the other models are also effected in the same way?
In the case of my own methodology, which has shown Kerry's share of the e.v. getting slightly larger while most other sites have shown it decreasing, it's my ad hoc handling of toss-up states (assigning them to the winner of the most recent untied non-partisan poll) which has caused the rise. If you look at my numbers with toss-ups undeclared for either candidate, it's actually the case that Kerry's share has gone down (from 269 to 259) while Bush's has gone up (from 191 to 222). It's the toss-up states shifting back and forth which causes the volatility in my other set of numbers, which I report here to be consistent with numbers I'm pulling from other sites.
(9/11) I don't know how long they've had it, but Real Clear Politics has added an electoral vote count to its polling section, which I'll be including in the next iteration of the survey. Its current numbers: 228-269-41.
Kenneth Quinnell (8/8 - not updated since last survey): Kerry 303 - Bush 207 - ?? 28 (out of date)
From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.
I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.
My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.
As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.
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i've got a little list...
Steven Abrams (Kansas BofE)
Howard Fieldstead Ahmanson
Roger Ailes (FNC)
Alan Bonsell (Dover BofE)
Bill Buckingham (Dover BofE)
George W. Bush
Bruce Chapman (DI)
The Coors Family
William A. Dembski
Leonard Downie (WaPo)
John Gibson (FNC)
Fred Hiatt (WaPo)
James F. Inhofe
Philip E. Johnson
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Stephen C. Meyer (DI)
Judith Miller (ex-NYT)
Sun Myung Moon
Elspeth Reeve (TNR)
Martin Peretz (TNR)
Richard Mellon Scaife
Susan Schmidt (WaPo)
John Solomon (WaPo)
Richard Thompson (TMLC)
Bob Woodward (WaPo)
All the fine sites I've
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Arthur C. Clarke
Daniel C. Dennett
Philip K. Dick
Stephen Jay Gould
"The Harder They Come"
Ursula K. LeGuin
The Marx Brothers
Michael C. Penta
Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger
"The Red Shoes"
"Singin' in the Rain"
Talking Heads/David Byrne
Hunter S. Thompson
"2001: A Space Odyssey"
If you read unfutz at least once a week, without fail, your teeth will be whiter and your love life more satisfying.
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