• current status
  Kerry 247 - Bush 275 - ?? 16 (CO, IA)
  (was: 270-258-9)
  
  
• election day projection (new)
  Kerry 307 - Bush 226 - ?? 5 (NV)
  (was: 298-220-20)

Federal Review (9/7):
Kerry 249 - Bush 289
(was: 316-222)

First in the Nation (9/6):
Kerry 254 - Bush 275 - ?? 9 (CO)
(no change)

Ed Fitzgerald (8/30):
Kerry 300 - Bush 238
(was: 290-248)

(Note: My numbers updated on 9/10 here to 305-233.)

Matthew Hubbard (9/4):
Kerry 244 - Bush 244 - ?? 50 (CO, OH, PA)
(was: 265-264-9)

LA Times (9/6):
Kerry 161 - Bush 147 - ?? 230
(no change)

Leip Atlas (1233 user predictions compiled; 9/6):

• state by state medians
  Kerry 264 - Bush 274
  (no change)
  
  
• overall medians
  Kerry 280 - Bush 258
  (was: 285-253)
  
  
• state polls aggregate (new)
  Kerry 211 - Bush 216 - ?? 111
  (was: 221-216-101)

mattb25 (8/19 - not updated since last survey)
Kerry 327 - Bush 211
(not updated)

MyDD (9/6)
Kerry 276 - Bush 262
(was 317-221)

My Election Analysis (9/?):
Kerry 288 - Bush 250
(was: 301-237)

National Journal's Hotline (9/2):
Kerry 231 - Bush 264 - ?? 43 (AR, IA, OH, WI)
(was: 231-280-37)

Newsweek (9/6 - new):
Kerry 269 - Bush 260 - ?? 9 (CO)
(new to survey)

Our Campaigns (9/6):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(no change)

Pollbooth (9/3)
Kerry 254 - Bush 247 - ?? 37 (FL, WI)
(was: 247-227-64)

Pollkatz (9/6):
Kerry 271 - Bush 267
(was: 282-256)

President Elect 2004(8/29):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(no change)

Race2004 (9/6):

• current poll status (new)
  Kerry 211 - Bush 157 - ?? 170
  (new to survey)
  
  
• election held today
  Kerry 291 - Bush 225 - ?? 22 (CO, VA)
  (was: 328-188-22)

Rasmussen (9/6):
Kerry 175 - Bush 213 - ?? 150
(was: 207-213-118)

Running the Numbers (9/6):
Kerry 292 - Bush 246
(no change)

Larry Sabato (9/7):
Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(was: 274-264)

Samboni's State-by-State (9/2):
Kerry 258 - Bush 264 - ?? 16 (CO, IA)
(was: 275-253-9)

Benjamin Schak (9/5):
Kerry 253 - Bush 285
(was: 296-242)

Robert Silvey (9/2):
Kerry 291 - Bush 238 - ?? 9 (CO)
(was: 297-241)

Tradesports/intrade (9/6):

• Fitzgerald conversion [50 = toss-up]
  Kerry 254 - Bush 284
  (no change)
  
  
• Geekmedia conversion [45-55 = toss-up]
  Kerry 254 - Bush 284
  (was: 254-274-10)

(Note: For further information on converting Tradesports data see here and here.)

Tripias (9/6):
Kerry 244 - Bush 294
(was: 270-268)

TruthIsAll (9/6):
Kerry 290 - Bush 248
(was 323-225)

Sam Wang (9/6):
Kerry 274 - Bush 264
(was: 290-248)

Washington Dispatch (9/5):
Kerry 233 - Bush 305
(was: 238-300)

Wayne in Missouri (9/3):
Kerry 257 - Bush 281
(was: 254-284)

David Wissing (9/6):
Kerry 233 - Bush 305
(was: 238-300)

Young Conservatives (8/15 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 188 - Bush 237 - ?? 113
(not updated)

Zogby/WSJ (8/23 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 286 - Bush 214 - ?? 38 (FL, MO)
(not updated)

(Note: The new Zogby polls came out on Tuesday: 307-238, polling conducted 8/30-9/3. This will be included in the next iteration of the survey.)

2.004k.com (9/6):
Kerry 226 - Bush 286 - ?? 26 (CO, IA, MN)
(was: 259-223-56)


STATS

48 SITES
(was: 46 - 4 dropped, 6 added)

Kerry winning: 15 (was: 24)
Kerry ahead: 6 (was: 7)

Tied: 1 (was: 0)

Bush winning: 20 (was: 12)
Bush ahead: 6 (was: 3)


Kerry gained: 5 (was: 7)
Kerry lost: 26 (was: 26)
Kerry no change: 9 (was: 3)

Bush gained: 26 (was: 29)
Bush lost: 5 (was: 4)
Bush no change: 9 (was: 3)

?? gained: 7 (was: 4)
?? lost: 6 (was: 7)
?? no change: 4 (was: 1)

Site no change: 7 (was: 3)
Site not updated: 4 (was: 8)
New: 6 (was: 1)
Reinstated: 0
Temporarily dropped: 4


AVERAGES: ALL SITES
MEAN: Kerry 254 - Bush 255 - ?? 29
(was: 267-245-26)

MEDIAN: Kerry 254 - Bush 263 (remainder: 21)
(was: 270-248-20)

MODE: Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(was: 254-284)


AVERAGES: SITES WITH NO ??
MEAN: Kerry 266 - Bush 272
(was: 279-258-1)

MEDIAN: Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(was: 281-257)

MODE: Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(was: 254-284)

• "Mean" is what we usually call "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
  
  
• "Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
  
  
• "Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times.

RANGE
Kerry max: 327 (was: 328)
Kerry min: 161 (was: 161)

Bush max: 305 (was: 300)
Bush min: 147 (was: 147)

SUMMARY

The calendar has essentially turned back 2 months, and Bush has regained almost all the ground he lost to Kerry in that time. From the evidence of the electoral vote trackers, the race has moved just past being tied, with an advantage for Bush, who has about 255 to 261 electoral votes, while Kerry is clearly parked at 254. (The remainder of the electoral votes are tied or otherwise unassigned.)

Of the 48 sites, 20 show Bush winning and another 6 show him ahead. Fifteen sites show Kerry winning and 6 show him ahead. One site has the race tied.

Bush's gains are most probably not due to a "convention bounce", since of the national polls which have come out recently, only one (CNN/USA Today/Gallup) was taken totally after the convention -- the others overlapped with it -- and the same is true of the state polls which have been released since the convention's end. Since national and state polls comprise the data used by the majority of the trackers here, it's hard to argue that the Bush lead they show came as a result of the convention. This means that if there is a convention bounce for Bush still to show up, we should expect to see Bush's lead increase in the next week or so as polls reflecting it (especially state polls) are released.


UPDATES

• For a few days after I publish the survey, I'll update figures, make corrections, and add new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site as well.



• The new Zogby Interactive/WSJ Battleground polls came out on Tuesday, carrying a Electoral College status of 307-238. Polling was conducted 8/30 - 9/3, overlapping the convention. Because these results came out just after I had finished the survey, I would normally have updated the Zogby entry and added them into my stats and averages, but time constraints (on me) prevented me from doing so. Now that we're just a few days away from my next iteration, I'll just hold off -- which in a way is good, since then we'll see the Zogby results and any effect they might have on other sites' results at the same time.



• (9/10) In his 9/9 update, Chris Bowers notes an interesting anomaly:
  
  

  Kerry holds a lead in the Electoral College [291-247] largely due to a weird statistical quirk. While Bush is ahead in the national vote projection (49.43-48.57), solid EVs (196-179), EV's by more than three (221-205), right now I project almost every single close state to swing Kerry's way. [...] The scenario is actually more likely that many of us realize. While most recent polls have shown Bush ahead nationally, Zogby, Rasmussen and Gallup all showed Kerry with a lead in the "battleground." One problem with Bush's strategy of solidifying his base while Kerry goes after swing voters is that while it will probably lead to red states looking a lot more strong and blue ones, it also concedes Kerry an advantage in the legally binding purple states.

  I wonder if any of the other models are also effected in the same way?
  
  In the case of my own methodology, which has shown Kerry's share of the e.v. getting slightly larger while most other sites have shown it decreasing, it's my ad hoc handling of toss-up states (assigning them to the winner of the most recent untied non-partisan poll) which has caused the rise. If you look at my numbers with toss-ups undeclared for either candidate, it's actually the case that Kerry's share has gone down (from 269 to 259) while Bush's has gone up (from 191 to 222). It's the toss-up states shifting back and forth which causes the volatility in my other set of numbers, which I report here to be consistent with numbers I'm pulling from other sites.




• (9/11) I don't know how long they've had it, but Real Clear Politics has added an electoral vote count to its polling section, which I'll be including in the next iteration of the survey. Its current numbers: 228-269-41.

PREVIOUS

• August 29
• August 22
• August 15
• August 7
• August 1
• July 25
• July 20
• July 6
• June 25

E.C.

FEC
NARA
Web Zine

NOT INCLUDED

The following sites have been removed for the reasons indicated:

J. Daniel Behun (8/2 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(out of date)

Fagan: Electline (8/8 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 238 - Bush 300
(out of date, no website)

hR's (8/29)
Kerry 247 - Bush 202 - ?? 88
(site's numbers don't add up)

Kenneth Quinnell (8/8 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 303 - Bush 207 - ?? 28
(out of date)


NOTES

From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.

I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.

My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.

As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.