(8/30: My numbers have changed to 300-238, but I have not included this in the survey's totals or averages.)

hR's (8/29 - updated)
Kerry 247 - Bush 202 - ?? 88 (CO,FL,IA,OH,NV,TN,WI)
(243-167-128)

(Note: The numbers listed on this site -- 246-209-100 -- do not add up properly, and do not accurately represent the totals of the states listed in each category. In addition, one state, Arizona, was left off entirely. The figures here are my reconstruction of what the proprietor probably meant.)

Matthew Hubbard (8/28 - updated):
Kerry 265 - Bush 264 - ?? 9 (CO)
(was: 316-213-9)

LA Times (8/29):
Kerry 161 - Bush 147 - ?? 230
(no change)

Leip Atlas (1176 user predictions compiled; 8/29 - updated):

• state by state medians
  Kerry 264 - Bush 274
  (no change)
  
  
• overall medians
  Kerry 285 - Bush 253
  (was: 289-249)

mattb25 (8/19 - not updated since last survey)
Kerry 327 - Bush 211
(not updated)

MyDD (8/29 - updated)
Kerry 317 - Bush 221
(was 316-222)

My Election Analysis (8/27 - new):
Kerry 301 - Bush 237
(new to survey, was: 311-227 on 8/26)

National Journal's Hotline (8/27 - reinstated):
Kerry 231 - Bush 280 - ?? 27 (AR, PA)
(was 252-249-37 on 8/25)

Our Campaigns (8/28):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(no change)

Pollbooth (8/27)
Kerry 247 - Bush 227 - ?? 64 (FL,OH,IA,WI)
(was: 281-222-35)

Pollkatz (8/29 - updated):
Kerry 282 - Bush 256
(was: 297-241)

President Elect 2004 (7/29 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(not updated)

Kenneth Quinnell (8/8 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 303 - Bush 207 - ?? 28
(not updated)

Race2004 (8/29):
Kerry 328 - Bush 188 - ?? 22 (CO, VI)
(was: 332-206)

Rasmussen (8/29 - updated):
Kerry 207 - Bush 213 - ?? 118
(was: 232-183-132)

Running the Numbers (8/29 - updated):
Kerry 292 - Bush 246
(was: 296-242)

Larry Sabato (8/16 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 274 - Bush 264
(not updated)

Samboni's State-by-State (8/27):
Kerry 276 - Bush 253 - ?? 9 (CO)
(was: 307-222-9)

Benjamin Schak (8/27):
Kerry 296 - Bush 242
(was: 316-222)

Robert Silvey (8/26):
Kerry 297 - Bush 241
(was: 296-242)

Tradesports/intrade (8/29 - updated):

• Fitzgerald conversion [50 = toss-up]
  Kerry 254 - Bush 284
  (was: 264-269-5)
  
  
• Geekmedia conversion [45-55 = toss-up]
  Kerry 254 - Bush 274 - ?? 10 (WI)
  (was: 264-222-52)

(Note: For further information on converting Tradesports data see here and here.)

Tripias (8/28):
Kerry 270 - Bush 268
(was: 296-242)

TruthIsAll (8/29):
Kerry 323 - Bush 215
(was 307-221)

Sam Wang (8/28):
Kerry 290 - Bush 248
(was: 313-225)

Washington Dispatch (8/29 - updated):
Kerry 238 - Bush 300
(was: 296-242)

Wayne in Missouri (8/27):
Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(was: 291-247)

David Wissing (8/26):
Kerry 238 - Bush 300
(was: 296-242)

Young Conservatives (8/15 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 188 - Bush 237 - ?? 113
(not updated)

Zogby/WSJ (8/23 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 286 - Bush 214 - ?? 38 (FL, MO)
(not updated)

2.004k.com (8/29 - updated):
Kerry 259 - Bush 223 - ?? 56 (CO, FL, OH)
(was: 306-207-25)


STATS

46 SITES
(was: 44 - 1 site added; 1 site reinstated)

Kerry winning: 24 (was: 32)
Kerry ahead: 7 (was: 4)

Bush winning: 12 (was: 4)
Bush ahead: 3 (was: 4)


Kerry gained: 7 (was: 5)
Kerry lost: 26 (was: 20)
Kerry no change: 3 (was: 9)

Bush gained: 29 (was: 18)
Bush lost: 4 (was: 11)
Bush no change: 3 (was: 6)

?? gained: 4 (was: 11)
?? lost: 7 (was: 2)
?? no change: 1 (was: 0)

Site no change: 3 (was: 7)
Site not updated: 8 (was: 4)
New: 1 (was: 5)
Reinstated: 1
Temporarily dropped: 0


AVERAGES: ALL SITES
MEAN: Kerry 267 - Bush 245 - ?? 26
(was: 284-227-27)

MEDIAN: Kerry 270 - Bush 248 (remainder: 20)
(was: 296-222-20)

MODE: Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(was: 316-222)


AVERAGES: SITES WITH NO ??
MEAN: Kerry 279 - Bush 258 (remainder: 1)
(was: 301-237)

MEDIAN: Kerry 281 - Bush 257
(was: 307-227)

MODE: Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(was: 316-222)

• "Mean" is what we usually call "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
  
  
• "Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
  
  
• "Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times.

RANGE
Kerry max: 328 (was: 332)
Kerry min: 161 (was: 161)

Bush max: 300 (was: 300)
Bush min: 147 (was: 147)

SUMMARY

Another week of solid gains for Bush, the second in a row.

While a bare majority (52%) of sites still list Kerry as winning in the Electoral College, and an additional 15% show him as ahead, a supermajority (76%) of updated sites show Bush gaining from last week, with the gains coming both from Kerry (down according to 68% of updated sites) and from states formerly designated as toss-ups/unassigned.

Kerry's average is now at or below the winning point of 270 votes, down from 300+ only two weeks ago.

Clearly, according to the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, Bush goes into the Republican National Convention in much better shape than anytime in the last two months, but it should be noted that he hasn't quite returned to where he was two months ago (see the graph below), and it's good to keep in mind that, at least at this point, Kerry is still leading, albeit barely. Whether that lead will hold up after the convention, we'll see in the next two weeks.


UPDATES

• For a few days after I publish the survey, I'll update figures, make corrections, and add new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site as well.
  
  
• (8/29) CNN has an analysis giving a result of 264-274, but I haven't included it in the survey because it's not part of an ongoing feature. If CNN starts up a continuing Electoral College analysis at some point, I'll add it to the list. (If I had included it, Bush's all-sites mean would have gone up by 1 vote.)
  
  
• (8/29) By request, I added brief explanations of mean, median and mode.
  
  
• (8/29) MyDD, Dales', hR's, Matthew Hubbard, Pollkatz, Election Projection, 2.004k.com, Rasmussen, Running the Numbers, Washington Dispatch, and Ed Fitzgerald (that's me) all updated, and I've adjusted the totals and averages. I also updated the Tradesports numbers. (I've been doing the survey overnight from Saturday to Sunday, but it seems to me I should switch to doing it overnight from Sunday to Monday, as a fair number of sites seem to update on Sunday. This will also fit into my schedule, as I start work on a new project next week, and Mondays will be my day off.)
  
  
• (8/30) My numbers have changed. The new one is 300-238, but I have not included this in the survey's totals or averages. With the race tightening, I consider more states to be "toss-ups", and by my system that means they are assigned to the leader of the most recent untied non-partisan poll. If one candidate maintains a lead over a number of polls, the state is assigned to that candidate, but if the lead switches back and forth from poll to poll, as has been happening with some frequency, a great deal of volatility is introduced and my numbers change frequently. Prompted by Chris Bowers on MyDD, I've also added a prediction for how things will end up on election day.
  
  
• (8/31) Matt Nelson pointed me to an Electoral College tracker being run by MSNBC/Newsweek, which I'll start to include as of the next survey. Currently, their status is 199-180-159.
  
  
• (8/31) Jock Young made a suggestion which I think is an excellent one, which is to drop the "mode" lines from the graph below, because they're based on a very small sample (just a couple of entries can be enough to determine the mode), they're all over the place, and they clutter up the graph, making it harder to see trends. For those who still want to see them, I'm leaving them on the large version that comes up when you click on the small graph.
  
  
• (9/1) Electoral Vote Predictor, one of the more widely known tracking sites, has just started projecting out its state-by-state results to a "final" election day outcome. They make the point that it's a rather iffy prediction at this point, but will have more validity in a month or so. At this time, although their normal status report is 242-280-16 (a Bush win), their "final" projection is a Kerry victory of 298-220-20 -- something to keep in mind as we look at the current status.
  
  
• (9/1) Although I include two results from Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections (the state-by-state user prediction compilation and overall user median numbers), I've been overlooking the fact that he also has a page which aggregates state polling information to provide a status report similar to that which others provide. Currently, the State Polls Aggregate is at 221-216-101. I'll add the results of this page into the next survey.

PREVIOUS

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E.C.

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NOT INCLUDED

All sites included. In the future, sites that haven't been updated in over 1 month will be temporarily dropped until they're updated. (This time period may tighten as we get closer to the election.)


NOTES

From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.

I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.

My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.

As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.