Another week passes since the last survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast / scoreboard / map sites, so it's time to do it again and see what the prognosticators have to say about the state of things just before the Republican National Convention begins.
J. Daniel Behun (8/2 - not updated since last survey): Kerry 284 - Bush 254 (not updated)
(Note: The numbers listed on this site -- 246-209-100 -- do not add up properly, and do not accurately represent the totals of the states listed in each category. In addition, one state, Arizona, was left off entirely. The figures here are my reconstruction of what the proprietor probably meant.)
Matthew Hubbard (8/28 - updated): Kerry 265 - Bush 264 - ?? 9 (CO) (was: 316-213-9)
LA Times (8/29): Kerry 161 - Bush 147 - ?? 230 (no change)
Leip Atlas (1176 user predictions compiled; 8/29 - updated):
state by state medians Kerry 264 - Bush 274 (no change)
overall medians Kerry 285 - Bush 253 (was: 289-249)
mattb25 (8/19 - not updated since last survey) Kerry 327 - Bush 211 (not updated)
Another week of solid gains for Bush, the second in a row.
While a bare majority (52%) of sites still list Kerry as winning in the Electoral College, and an additional 15% show him as ahead, a supermajority (76%) of updated sites show Bush gaining from last week, with the gains coming both from Kerry (down according to 68% of updated sites) and from states formerly designated as toss-ups/unassigned.
Kerry's average is now at or below the winning point of 270 votes, down from 300+ only two weeks ago.
Clearly, according to the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, Bush goes into the Republican National Convention in much better shape than anytime in the last two months, but it should be noted that he hasn't quite returned to where he was two months ago (see the graph below), and it's good to keep in mind that, at least at this point, Kerry is still leading, albeit barely. Whether that lead will hold up after the convention, we'll see in the next two weeks.
For a few days after I publish the survey, I'll update figures, make corrections, and add new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site as well.
(8/29) CNN has an analysis giving a result of 264-274, but I haven't included it in the survey because it's not part of an ongoing feature. If CNN starts up a continuing Electoral College analysis at some point, I'll add it to the list. (If I had included it, Bush's all-sites mean would have gone up by 1 vote.)
(8/29) By request, I added brief explanations of mean, median and mode.
(8/30) My numbers have changed. The new one is 300-238, but I have not included this in the survey's totals or averages. With the race tightening, I consider more states to be "toss-ups", and by my system that means they are assigned to the leader of the most recent untied non-partisan poll. If one candidate maintains a lead over a number of polls, the state is assigned to that candidate, but if the lead switches back and forth from poll to poll, as has been happening with some frequency, a great deal of volatility is introduced and my numbers change frequently. Prompted by Chris Bowers on MyDD, I've also added a prediction for how things will end up on election day.
(8/31) Matt Nelson pointed me to an Electoral College tracker being run by MSNBC/Newsweek, which I'll start to include as of the next survey. Currently, their status is 199-180-159.
(8/31) Jock Young made a suggestion which I think is an excellent one, which is to drop the "mode" lines from the graph below, because they're based on a very small sample (just a couple of entries can be enough to determine the mode), they're all over the place, and they clutter up the graph, making it harder to see trends. For those who still want to see them, I'm leaving them on the large version that comes up when you click on the small graph.
(9/1) Electoral Vote Predictor, one of the more widely known tracking sites, has just started projecting out its state-by-state results to a "final" election day outcome. They make the point that it's a rather iffy prediction at this point, but will have more validity in a month or so. At this time, although their normal status report is 242-280-16 (a Bush win), their "final" projection is a Kerry victory of 298-220-20 -- something to keep in mind as we look at the current status.
(9/1) Although I include two results from Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections (the state-by-state user prediction compilation and overall user median numbers), I've been overlooking the fact that he also has a page which aggregates state polling information to provide a status report similar to that which others provide. Currently, the State Polls Aggregate is at 221-216-101. I'll add the results of this page into the next survey.
All sites included. In the future, sites that haven't been updated in over 1 month will be temporarily dropped until they're updated. (This time period may tighten as we get closer to the election.)
From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.
I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.
My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.
As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.
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i've got a little list...
Steven Abrams (Kansas BofE)
Howard Fieldstead Ahmanson
Roger Ailes (FNC)
Alan Bonsell (Dover BofE)
Bill Buckingham (Dover BofE)
George W. Bush
Bruce Chapman (DI)
The Coors Family
William A. Dembski
Leonard Downie (WaPo)
John Gibson (FNC)
Fred Hiatt (WaPo)
James F. Inhofe
Philip E. Johnson
by Joel Pelletier
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Stephen C. Meyer (DI)
Judith Miller (ex-NYT)
Sun Myung Moon
Elspeth Reeve (TNR)
Martin Peretz (TNR)
Richard Mellon Scaife
Susan Schmidt (WaPo)
John Solomon (WaPo)
Richard Thompson (TMLC)
Bob Woodward (WaPo)
All the fine sites I've
Be sure to visit them all!!
Arthur C. Clarke
Daniel C. Dennett
Philip K. Dick
Stephen Jay Gould
"The Harder They Come"
Ursula K. LeGuin
The Marx Brothers
Michael C. Penta
Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger
"The Red Shoes"
"Singin' in the Rain"
Talking Heads/David Byrne
Hunter S. Thompson
"2001: A Space Odyssey"
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