• Boston Globe:
  Kerry 188 - Bush 192 - ?? 108
  (new to survey)
  
  
• Philadelphia Inquirer:
  Kerry 168 - Bush 166 - ?? 204
  (new to survey)
  
  
• South Florida Sun-Sentinel:
  Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
  (new to survey)
  
  
• USA Today:
  Kerry 171 - Bush 205 - ?? 162
  (new to survey)
  
  
• Washington Post (restored):
  Kerry 179 - Bush 208 - ?? 151
  (new to survey)

(Note: The Editor and Publisher roundup of media Electoral College tracking maps also includes the New York Times and the Los Angeles Times, which are included in this survey in their own entries.)

Election Projection (10/24 - corrected):
Kerry 262 - Bush 276
(was: 264-274)

Electoral Expectations (10/28):
Kerry 277 - Bush 261
(was: 268-270)

Electoral-vote.com (10/27):

• current status:
  Kerry 257 - Bush 274 - ?? 7 (IA)
  (was: 253-254-31)
  
  
• election day prediction:
  Kerry 288 - Bush 250
  (was: 284-244-10)

Federal Review (10/27):
Kerry 242 - Bush 296
(was: 243-295)

First in the Nation (10/27):
Kerry 263 - Bush 275
(no change)

Ed Fitzgerald:

• current estimate (10/27):
  Kerry 273 - Bush 265
  (was: 293-245)
  
  

  (Note: Updated on 10/29: Kerry 283 - Bush 255.)

• election day prediction (10/23 - new):
  Kerry 294 - Bush 244
  (new to survey)

  (Note: Updated on 10/28: Kerry 279 - Bush 259.)

The Groundhog (George Axiotakis) (10/22 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(not updated)

Hardball Horserace (10/25):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(no change)

Matthew Hubbard (10/23 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 270 - Bush 268
(not updated)

LA Times (10/27):
Kerry 153 - Bush 190 - ?? 195
(was: 153-158-227)

Dave Leip's Atlas (500 "most recent" user predictions):

• state by state medians (10/27)
  Kerry 267 - Bush 271
  (no change)
  
  
• overall medians (10/27)
  Kerry 267 - Bush 271
  (was: 269-269)
  
  
• state polls aggregate (10/26)
  Kerry 224 - Bush 239 - ?? 75
  (no change)

E. Alan Meece (10/27):
Kerry 246 - Bush 262 - ?? 30 (OH, WI)
(was: 246-227-65)

Mind the Gap (10/27):
Kerry 276 - Bush 262
(was: 284-254)

Andrea Moro (10/27):

• 2.400k data:
  Kerry 276 - Bush 262
  (was: 277-261)
  
  
• Real Clear Politics data (new):
  Kerry 254 - Bush 284
  (new to survey)

MyDD (10/27):
Kerry 281 - Bush 257
(was: 251-287)

My Election Analysis (10/26):
Kerry 258 - Bush 280
(was: 277-261)

National Journal's Hotline (via C-SPAN @ 2:07:00; 10/27):
Kerry 243 - Bush 217 - ?? 78
(was: 205-234-99)

New York Times (10/27):
Kerry 225 - Bush 227 - ?? 86
(was: 225-213-100)

Political Oddsmaker (10/27):
Kerry 238 - Bush 242 - ?? 58
(was: 238-279-21)

Pollbooth (10/25)
Kerry 238 - Bush 276 - ?? 24 (OH, NH)
(was: 243-291-4)

Pollkatz (10/26):
Kerry 287 - Bush 251
(no change)

President Elect 2004 (10/25):
Kerry 261 - Bush 277
(was: 272-266)

Race2004 (10/27):

• current poll status
  Kerry 194 - Bush 243 - ?? 101
  (was: 175-216-147)
  
  
• election held today
  Kerry 273 - Bush 265
  (was: 300-238)

Ramblings on Uncertainty (10/27 - new):
Kerry 278 - Bush 260
(was: 279-259 as of 10/25)

Rasmussen (10/24 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(not updated)

Real Clear Politics (10/27):
Kerry 228 - Bush 234 - ?? 76
(was: 211-234-93)

Red State Blue State (10/26):
Kerry 228 - Bush 310
(was: 227-311)

Larry Sabato (10/26):
Kerry 262 - Bush 276
(was: 254-284)

Samboni's State-by-State (10/24 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 280 - Bush 231 - ?? 27 (FL)
(not updated)

Alcon San Croix (10/24 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 280 - Bush 253 - ?? 5 (NH, ME-2)
(not updated)

Search The Links (10/25):
Kerry 234 - Bush 248 - ?? 56 (FL, NH, NM, OH)
(was: 267-234-37)

Robert Silvey (10/21 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 277 - Bush 261
(not updated)

Slate (10/27):
Kerry 262 - Bush 276
(was: 267-271)

Strategisphere (10/23):
Kerry 255 - Bush 283
(was: 273-265)

Tradesports/intrade (10/27):

• Fitzgerald conversion [50 = toss-up]
  Kerry 242 - Bush 296
  (was: 247-291)
  
  
• Geekmedia conversion [45-55 = toss-up]
  Kerry 242 - Bush 276 - ?? 20 (OH)
  (was: 247-274-17)

(Note: For further information on converting Tradesports data see here and here.)

Tripias (10/26):
Kerry 257 - Bush 281
(was: 247-291)

TruthIsAll (10/27):
Kerry 321 - Bush 217
(was: 316-222)

Sam Wang's Meta-Analysis (10/27):
Kerry 309 - Bush 229
(was: 311-227)

Washington Dispatch (10/27):
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(was: 230-308)

Wayne in Missouri (10/22 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(not updated)

David Wissing (10/27):
Kerry 277 - Bush 261
(was: 247-291)

2.004k.com (10/27):
Kerry 282 - Bush 246 - ?? 10 (WI)
(was: 253-242-42)


STATS

67 PROJECTIONS FROM 60 SITES
(was: 63 from 58 - 4 dropped, 1 restored, 7 new, 0 news reports)

Kerry winning: 21 (was: 20)
Kerry ahead: 4 (6)

Tied: 0 (1)

Bush winning: 23 (24)
Bush ahead: 19 (12)

        gained      lost     no change
Kerry   15 (14)    23 (24)    11 (10)
Bush    27 (18)    14 (18)     8 (12)
??       7 (13)    10  (6)     2 (1)

Site no change: 7 (5)
Site not updated: 11 (15)

New: 7 (0)
News reports: 0 (0)

Restored: 1 (0)
Dropped: 4 (3)


AVERAGES
MEAN: Kerry 248 - Bush 252 - ?? 38
(was: 253-256-29)

MEDIAN: Kerry 255 - Bush 257 - (remainder: 26)
(was: 253-261-24)

MODE: Kerry 242 [n=7] - Bush 222 [n=5] - (remainder: 74)
(was: 247-222-69)

JOINT MODE: Kerry 207 - Bush 222 [n=5] - (remainder: 109)
(was: 207-222-89)

Sites without unassigned states
MEAN: Kerry 269 - Bush 269 [tie]
(no change)

MEDIAN: Kerry 267 - Bush 271
(was: 268-270)

(For what "mean", "median" and "mode" are, see "Notes" below.)

RANGE
Kerry max: 321 (316)
Kerry min: 153 (153)

Bush max: 310 (311)
Bush min: 166 (158)

SUMMARY

It's quiet out there -- too quiet.

According to the averages, Bush dropped 4 votes from the last survey, while Kerry's change was +2 to -5. That left Bush with a 2 to 4 vote advantage over Kerry, a little less than last time, when he lead by 3 to 8 votes.

Bush currently has 252 to 257 votes, and Kerry has 248 to 255.

There was little movement in other statistics, none of which indicated a significant advantage for either candidate.







UPDATES & CORRECTIONS

• For a few days after I publish the survey, I'll make corrections, note updates, and add new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site when appropriate.
  
  
• Expected publishing schedule: Saturday 30 October (in the early a.m.), and, if possible, Monday 1 November (from London).
  
  
• As of the next survey (which will either be the last or the penultimate), I'll be including only those sites which are current (i.e. updated within three or four days maximum). Stagnant sites will be ruthlessly purged.
  
  
• (10/28) Thanks to Richard Martin for pointing out that I used the wrong numbers from Election Projection. I've corrected them and updated the stats and summary.
  
  
• (10/28) The Zogby Interactives are out, dated 10/28 and representing polling from 10/25 to 10/28. The associated Electoral College count is Kerry 231 - Bush 286 - ?? 21.
  
  
• (10/28) An informal walk-through of almost all the sites at just before 3am Eastern (Thursday-Friday overnight) shows no real signs of movement. Bush is at 252-255 votes (from 252-257) and Kerry is at 246-256 (from 248-255). That's anywhere from a 6 point lead for Bush to a 1 point lead for Kerry, as opposed to a 2 to 4 votes lead for Bush yesterday -- so each candidate could be said to be doing better, except that no one's managing to make any real headway, at least according to this metric.

PREVIOUS SURVEYS

24-Oct / 21-Oct / 18-Oct / 11-Oct / 4-Oct / 27-Sept / 19-Sept / 13-Sept / 6-Sept / 29-Aug / 22-Aug / 15-Aug / 7-Aug / 1-Aug / 25-July / 20-July / 6-July / 25-June


NOTES

From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.

I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.

My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.

Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. Two weeks has been the allowance for keeping a "stagnant" site in the survey, but that changed to 10 days begining with this iteration. This will tighten to one week and then, just before the election, I may choose to make it even more restrictive.

One-time Electoral College analysis articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single iteration of the survey (or one week, if I ever start doing it more often than once a week), unless replaced by a new article.

As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral
College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.

Averages

• "Mean" is what is colloquially called "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
  
  
• "Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
  
  
• "Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times. The "n=" number indicates how many times the number listed appears.
  
  
• "Joint Mode" is the combination of Kerry and Bush counts which appears most frequently in the survey. The "n=" number indicates how many times it appears.

A note on my own numbers

I want to make it clear, just in case it isn't already, that the numbers I publish here under my own name (Ed Fitzgerald) are the result of my own methodology, and are not in any way connected with the results of this survey, except that they constitute a single pair of data points in it. That is, neither my current estimation of the system's status, nor my prediction about its final state on Election Day, are meant to illustrate the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, which can be found in the "Summary" section above and the graphs connected to it.


NOT INCLUDED

The following site which appeared in the previous edition of the survey were removed, for the reasons indicated:

mattb25 (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 316 - Bush 222
(out of date)

Benjamin Schak (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(out of date)

Young Conservatives (10/20 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 214 - Bush 295 - ?? 29 (IA, MN, NM, OR)
(out of date)

Zogby/WSJ (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(out of date)

(Note: The Zogby Interactives were updated on 10/28. See "Updates" above.)

A list of sites removed in previous weeks is here.