Sites without unassigned states MEAN: Kerry 269 - Bush 269 [tie] (no change)
MEDIAN: Kerry 267 - Bush 271 (was: 268-270)
(For what "mean", "median" and "mode" are, see "Notes" below.)
RANGE Kerry max: 321 (316) Kerry min: 153 (153)
Bush max: 310 (311) Bush min: 166 (158)
It's quiet out there -- too quiet.
According to the averages, Bush dropped 4 votes from the last survey, while Kerry's change was +2 to -5. That left Bush with a 2 to 4 vote advantage over Kerry, a little less than last time, when he lead by 3 to 8 votes.
Bush currently has 252 to 257 votes, and Kerry has 248 to 255.
There was little movement in other statistics, none of which indicated a significant advantage for either candidate.
UPDATES & CORRECTIONS
For a few days after I publish the survey, I'll make corrections, note updates, and add new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site when appropriate.
Expected publishing schedule: Saturday 30 October (in the early a.m.), and, if possible, Monday 1 November (from London).
As of the next survey (which will either be the last or the penultimate), I'll be including only those sites which are current (i.e. updated within three or four days maximum). Stagnant sites will be ruthlessly purged.
(10/28) Thanks to Richard Martin for pointing out that I used the wrong numbers from Election Projection. I've corrected them and updated the stats and summary.
(10/28) The Zogby Interactives are out, dated 10/28 and representing polling from 10/25 to 10/28. The associated Electoral College count is Kerry 231 - Bush 286 - ?? 21.
(10/28) An informal walk-through of almost all the sites at just before 3am Eastern (Thursday-Friday overnight) shows no real signs of movement. Bush is at 252-255 votes (from 252-257) and Kerry is at 246-256 (from 248-255). That's anywhere from a 6 point lead for Bush to a 1 point lead for Kerry, as opposed to a 2 to 4 votes lead for Bush yesterday -- so each candidate could be said to be doing better, except that no one's managing to make any real headway, at least according to this metric.
From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.
I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.
My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.
Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. Two weeks has been the allowance for keeping a "stagnant" site in the survey, but that changed to 10 days begining with this iteration. This will tighten to one week and then, just before the election, I may choose to make it even more restrictive.
One-time Electoral College analysis articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single iteration of the survey (or one week, if I ever start doing it more often than once a week), unless replaced by a new article.
As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.
"Mean" is what is colloquially called "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
"Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
"Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times. The "n=" number indicates how many times the number listed appears.
"Joint Mode" is the combination of Kerry and Bush counts which appears most frequently in the survey. The "n=" number indicates how many times it appears.
A note on my own numbers
I want to make it clear, just in case it isn't already, that the numbers I publish here under my own name (Ed Fitzgerald) are the result of my own methodology, and are not in any way connected with the results of this survey, except that they constitute a single pair of data points in it. That is, neither my current estimation of the system's status, nor my prediction about its final state on Election Day, are meant to illustrate the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, which can be found in the "Summary" section above and the graphs connected to it.
The following site which appeared in the previous edition of the survey were removed, for the reasons indicated:
mattb25 (10/19 - not updated since last survey): Kerry 316 - Bush 222 (out of date)
Benjamin Schak (10/19 - not updated since last survey): Kerry 264 - Bush 274 (out of date)
Young Conservatives (10/20 - not updated since last survey): Kerry 214 - Bush 295 - ?? 29 (IA, MN, NM, OR) (out of date)
Zogby/WSJ (10/19 - not updated since last survey): Kerry 264 - Bush 274 (out of date)
(Note: The Zogby Interactives were updated on 10/28. See "Updates" above.)
A list of sites removed in previous weeks is here.
hostile to science
lacking in empathy
lacking in public spirit
out of control
Thanks to: Breeze, Chuck, Ivan Raikov, Kaiju, Kathy, Roger, Shirley, S.M. Dixon
i've got a little list...
Steven Abrams (Kansas BofE)
Howard Fieldstead Ahmanson
Roger Ailes (FNC)
Alan Bonsell (Dover BofE)
Bill Buckingham (Dover BofE)
George W. Bush
Bruce Chapman (DI)
The Coors Family
William A. Dembski
Leonard Downie (WaPo)
John Gibson (FNC)
Fred Hiatt (WaPo)
James F. Inhofe
Philip E. Johnson
by Joel Pelletier
(click on image for more info)
Stephen C. Meyer (DI)
Judith Miller (ex-NYT)
Sun Myung Moon
Elspeth Reeve (TNR)
Martin Peretz (TNR)
Richard Mellon Scaife
Susan Schmidt (WaPo)
John Solomon (WaPo)
Richard Thompson (TMLC)
Bob Woodward (WaPo)
All the fine sites I've
Be sure to visit them all!!
Arthur C. Clarke
Daniel C. Dennett
Philip K. Dick
Stephen Jay Gould
"The Harder They Come"
Ursula K. LeGuin
The Marx Brothers
Michael C. Penta
Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger
"The Red Shoes"
"Singin' in the Rain"
Talking Heads/David Byrne
Hunter S. Thompson
"2001: A Space Odyssey"
If you read unfutz at least once a week, without fail, your teeth will be whiter and your love life more satisfying.
If you read it daily, I will come to your house, kiss you on the forehead, bathe your feet, and cook pancakes for you, with yummy syrup and everything.
(You might want to keep a watch on me, though, just to avoid the syrup ending up on your feet and the pancakes on your forehead.)
Finally, on a more mundane level, since I don't believe that anyone actually reads this stuff, I make this offer: I'll give five bucks to the first person who contacts me and asks for it -- and, believe me, right now five bucks might as well be five hundred, so this is no trivial offer.