(Note: The article has 62 toss-up votes, but the 5 states listed account for 69 votes.)

Brian Calhoun (10/18):
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(no change)

CBS (10/21):
Kerry 217 - Bush 222 - ?? 99
(no change)

CNN (10/19):
Kerry 261 - Bush 277
(no change)

Coldhearted Truth (10/19):
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(was: 243-295)

Charlie Cook (10/21):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(was: 207-208-123)

Dales' EC Breakdown (10/21):
Kerry 243 - Bush 264 - ?? 31 (IA, NH, OH)
(was: 242-254-42)

DC's Political Report (10/21):
Kerry 206 - Bush 236 - ?? 96
(was: 188-184-166)

dc2 electoral (10/18):
Kerry 263 - Bush 275
(no change)

Mark Durrenberger (10/21):
Kerry 311 - Bush 227
(no change)

Election Projection (10/17 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(not updated)

Electoral Expectations (10/22):
Kerry 264 - Bush 273
(was: 274-264)

Electoral-vote.com (10/21):

• current status:
  Kerry 271 - Bush 257 - ?? 10 (MN)
  (was: 257-247-34)
  
  
• election day prediction (new):
  Kerry 301 - Bush 237
  (new to survey)

(Note: Votemaster, the proprietor of Electoral-vote.com, removed his previous projection map 10 days ago. This is a new one, using a different methodology.)

Federal Review (10/19):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(was: 247-291)

First in the Nation (10/21):
Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(no change)

Ed Fitzgerald (10/21 - updated):
Kerry 266 - Bush 272
(was: 289-249)

(Note: This is my estimation of the current state of the system. My Election Day prediction, Kerry 294 - Bush 244, is here. Also, see "Notes" below.)

The Groundhog (George Axiotakis) (10/18):
Kerry 294 - Bush 244
(was: 301-237)

Hardball Horserace (10/19):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(was: 200-217-121)

Matthew Hubbard (10/16 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 277 - Bush 227 - ?? 34 (FL, IA)
(not updated)

LA Times (10/21):
Kerry 153 - Bush 173 - ?? 212
(was: 170-148-220)

Dave Leip's Atlas (500 "most recent" user predictions):

• state by state medians (10/21)
  Kerry 284 - Bush 254
  (no change)
  
  
• overall medians (10/21)
  Kerry 272 - Bush 266
  (was: 274-264)
  
  
• state polls aggregate (10/19)
  Kerry 196 - Bush 222 - ?? 120
  (was: 203-240-95)

mattb25 (10/19 - restored):
Kerry 316 - Bush 222
(was: 291-247 on 9/22)

E. Alan Meece (10/21):
Kerry 256 - Bush 227 - ?? 55 (FL, IA, OH, ME-1)
(was: 246-228-64)

Mind the Gap (10/19):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(was: 270-268)

Andrea Moro (10/21):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(was: 270.5-267.5)

MyDD (10/21):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(was: 291-247)

My Election Analysis (10/20):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(was: 247-288-3)

National Journal's Hotline (via C-SPAN @ 1:36:00; 10/21):
Kerry 205 - Bush 244 - ?? 89
(was: 221-245-72)

New York Times (10/21):
Kerry 225 - Bush 213 - ?? 100
(was: 221-213-104)

Political Oddsmaker (10/17 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 243 - Bush 279 - ?? 16
(not updated)

Pollbooth (10/21)
Kerry 243 - Bush 291 - ?? 4 (NH)
(was: 246-287-5)

Pollkatz (10/21):
Kerry 287 - Bush 251
(was: 282-256)

President Elect 2004 (10/21 - updated):
Kerry 238 - Bush 300
(was: 255-283)

Race2004 (10/21):

• current poll status
  Kerry 181 - Bush 182 - ?? 175
  (was: 218-196-124)
  
  
• election held today
  Kerry 301 - Bush 237
  (was: 284-254)

Rasmussen (10/19 - updated):
Kerry 190 - Bush 222 - ?? 126
(was: 194-213-131)

Real Clear Politics (10/21):
Kerry 189 - Bush 227 - ?? 122
(was: 220-227-91)

Red State Blue State (10/21):
Kerry 237 - Bush 301
(no change)

Larry Sabato (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(not updated)

Samboni's State-by-State (10/20):
Kerry 290 - Bush 231 - ?? 17 (IA, MN)
(was: 263-253-22)

Alcon San Croix (10/20):
Kerry 276 - Bush 255 - ?? 7 (IA)
(was: 241-255-42)

SF Chronicle (10/15 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 179 - Bush 202 - ?? 157
(not updated)

(Note: One of the numbers given in the Chronicle article is not correct. The toss-up states they list represent 157 electoral votes, not 153.)

Benjamin Schak (10/19):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(no change)

Search The Links (10/20):
Kerry 267 - Bush 234 - ?? 37 (FL, WI)
(was: 238-261-39)

Robert Silvey (10/21 - updated):
Kerry 277 - Bush 261
(was: 247-291)

Slate (10/21):
Kerry 267 - Bush 271
(was 272-266)

Strategisphere (10/18 - new):
Kerry 273 - Bush 265
(new to survey)

Tradesports/intrade (10/21):

• Fitzgerald conversion [50 = toss-up]
  Kerry 247 - Bush 291
  (no change)
  
  
• Geekmedia conversion [45-55 = toss-up]
  Kerry 247 - Bush 274 - ?? 17 (IA, WI)
  (no change)

(Note: For further information on converting Tradesports data see here and here.)

Tripias (10/20):
Kerry 279 - Bush 259
(was: 250-288)

TruthIsAll (10/20):
Kerry 312 - Bush 226
(was: 327-211)

Sam Wang's Meta-Analysis (10/21):
Kerry 311 - Bush 227
(was: 298-240)

Washington Dispatch (10/20):
Kerry 253 - Bush 285
(was: 235-303)

Washington Times (10/17 not updated since last survey):
Kerry 203 - Bush 254 - ?? 81
(not updated)

Wayne in Missouri (10/15 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 238 - Bush 300
(not updated)

David Wissing (10/21):
Kerry 230 - Bush 308
(was: 271-267)

Young Conservatives (10/20 - restored):
Kerry 214 - Bush 295 - ?? 29 (IA, MN, NM, OR)
(was: 180-341-17 on 9/16)

Zogby/WSJ (10/19):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(was: 322-216)

2.004k.com (10/21 - updated):
Kerry 257 - Bush 261 - ?? 20 (MN, WI)
(was: 279-252-7)


STATS

66 PROJECTIONS FROM 61 SITES
(was: 62 from 58 - 0 dropped, 2 restored, 2 new)

Kerry winning: 21 (was: 19)
Kerry ahead: 4 (8)

Tied: 0 (0)

Bush winning: 24 (20)
Bush ahead: 17 (15)

        gained      lost     no change
Kerry   24 (29)    20 (15)    13 (14)
Bush    20  (7)    22 (38)    15 (13)
??       8 (22)    16  (2)     4 (3)

Site no change: 12 (8)
Site not updated: 7 (1)

New: 2 (4)
News reports: 2 (2)

Restored: 2 (1)
Dropped: 0 (2)


AVERAGES
MEAN: Kerry 251 - Bush 253 - ?? 34
(was: 250-253-35)

MEDIAN: Kerry 255 - Bush 256 - (remainder: 27)
(was: 247-254.5-36.5)

MODE: Kerry 247 [n=5] - Bush 222 [n=7] - (remainder: 69)
(was: 247-291)

JOINT MODE: Kerry 264 - Bush 274 [n=4]
(was: 247-291)

Sites without unassigned states
MEAN: Kerry 272 - Bush 266
(was: 269-269)

MEDIAN: Kerry 269.5 - Bush 268.5
(was: 267-271)

(For what "mean", "median" and "mode" are, see "Notes" below.)

RANGE
Kerry max: 316 (327)
Kerry min: 153 (164)

Bush max: 308 (303)
Bush min: 168 (157)

SUMMARY

There's no great art that goes into summarizing the situation covered by this edition of the survey, and no mystery about what's going on:

• Kerry's got 251-255 electoral votes and Bush has 253-256;
  
  
• Going by sites without unassigned states, Kerry's got 270-272 and Bush has 266-269;
  
  
• Bush has an advantage with sites that list him as winning (24 to 21), sites that list him as ahead (17 to 4) and sites that list him as winning or ahead (41 to 25);
  
  
• Kerry, however, has an advantage on sites he gained votes on (24 to 20) and sites that the other candidate lost votes on (22 to 20 -- remember that because of the unassigned states, Kerry and Bush aren't necessarily in a zero-sum situation on all sites);
  
  
• There really isn't a single category in which one or the other has an indisputable advantage.

I believe in politics, they call this a tie, which means that as we enter into the home stretch, according to the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, this race is a dead heat






UPDATES & CORRECTIONS

• For a few days after I publish the survey, I'll update figures, make corrections, and add new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site when appropriate.
  
  
• Expected update publishing schedule: Sunday 24 October, Wednesday 27 October, Saturday 30 October (in the a.m.), and possibly Monday 1 November (from London).
  
  
• As usual, a number of sites updated after I had initially finished and published the survey (including my own, because of a bad piece of data that skewed my numbers), so I've included them, updated the stats and summary, and labelled the entries. (I've also corrected the mistake where in attempting to update one site's numbers, I put them into the entry for another site.)
  
  
• It's amazing to be that with all my webprowling and searching, even at this late date I'm still coming across sites that are new to me. The latest is Strategisphere, a simulation-based site, whose numbers I've added into the totals. Take a look at the graph right under the map on this site, and compare it to my first graph above. If they were scaled the same they'd be virtually identical.

PREVIOUS SURVEYS

18-Oct / 11-Oct / 4-Oct / 27-Sept / 19-Sept / 13-Sept / 6-Sept / 29-Aug / 22-Aug / 15-Aug / 7-Aug / 1-Aug / 25-July / 20-July / 6-July / 25-June


NOTES

From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.

I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.

My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.

Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. Two weeks has been the allowance for keeping a "stagnant" site in the survey, but that changed to 10 days begining with this iteration. This will tighten to one week and then, just before the election, I may choose to make it even more restrictive.

One-time Electoral College analysis articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single iteration of the survey (or one week, if I ever start doing it more often than once a week), unless replaced by a new article.

As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral
College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.

Averages

• "Mean" is what is colloquially called "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
  
  
• "Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
  
  
• "Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times. The "n=" number indicates how many times the number listed appears.
  
  
• "Joint Mode" is the combination of Kerry and Bush counts which appears most frequently in the survey. The "n=" number indicates how many times it appears.

A note on my own numbers

I want to make it clear, just in case it isn't already, that the numbers I publish here under my own name (Ed Fitzgerald) are the result of my own methodology, and are not in any way connected with the results of this survey, except that they constitute a single pair of data points in it. That is, neither my current estimation of the system's status, nor my prediction about its final state on Election Day, are meant to illustrate the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, which can be found in the "Summary" section above and the graphs connected to it.


NOT INCLUDED

A list of sites removed in previous weeks is here