JOINT MODE: Kerry 264 - Bush 274 [n=4] (was: 247-291)
Sites without unassigned states MEAN: Kerry 272 - Bush 266 (was: 269-269)
MEDIAN: Kerry 269.5 - Bush 268.5 (was: 267-271)
(For what "mean", "median" and "mode" are, see "Notes" below.)
RANGE Kerry max: 316 (327) Kerry min: 153 (164)
Bush max: 308 (303) Bush min: 168 (157)
There's no great art that goes into summarizing the situation covered by this edition of the survey, and no mystery about what's going on:
Kerry's got 251-255 electoral votes and Bush has 253-256;
Going by sites without unassigned states, Kerry's got 270-272 and Bush has 266-269;
Bush has an advantage with sites that list him as winning (24 to 21), sites that list him as ahead (17 to 4) and sites that list him as winning or ahead (41 to 25);
Kerry, however, has an advantage on sites he gained votes on (24 to 20) and sites that the other candidate lost votes on (22 to 20 -- remember that because of the unassigned states, Kerry and Bush aren't necessarily in a zero-sum situation on all sites);
There really isn't a single category in which one or the other has an indisputable advantage.
I believe in politics, they call this a tie, which means that as we enter into the home stretch, according to the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, this race is a dead heat
UPDATES & CORRECTIONS
For a few days after I publish the survey, I'll update figures, make corrections, and add new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site when appropriate.
Expected update publishing schedule: Sunday 24 October, Wednesday 27 October, Saturday 30 October (in the a.m.), and possibly Monday 1 November (from London).
As usual, a number of sites updated after I had initially finished and published the survey (including my own, because of a bad piece of data that skewed my numbers), so I've included them, updated the stats and summary, and labelled the entries. (I've also corrected the mistake where in attempting to update one site's numbers, I put them into the entry for another site.)
It's amazing to be that with all my webprowling and searching, even at this late date I'm still coming across sites that are new to me. The latest is Strategisphere, a simulation-based site, whose numbers I've added into the totals. Take a look at the graph right under the map on this site, and compare it to my first graph above. If they were scaled the same they'd be virtually identical.
From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.
I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.
My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.
Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. Two weeks has been the allowance for keeping a "stagnant" site in the survey, but that changed to 10 days begining with this iteration. This will tighten to one week and then, just before the election, I may choose to make it even more restrictive.
One-time Electoral College analysis articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single iteration of the survey (or one week, if I ever start doing it more often than once a week), unless replaced by a new article.
As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.
"Mean" is what is colloquially called "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
"Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
"Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times. The "n=" number indicates how many times the number listed appears.
"Joint Mode" is the combination of Kerry and Bush counts which appears most frequently in the survey. The "n=" number indicates how many times it appears.
A note on my own numbers
I want to make it clear, just in case it isn't already, that the numbers I publish here under my own name (Ed Fitzgerald) are the result of my own methodology, and are not in any way connected with the results of this survey, except that they constitute a single pair of data points in it. That is, neither my current estimation of the system's status, nor my prediction about its final state on Election Day, are meant to illustrate the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, which can be found in the "Summary" section above and the graphs connected to it.
hostile to science
lacking in empathy
lacking in public spirit
out of control
Thanks to: Breeze, Chuck, Ivan Raikov, Kaiju, Kathy, Roger, Shirley, S.M. Dixon
i've got a little list...
Steven Abrams (Kansas BofE)
Howard Fieldstead Ahmanson
Roger Ailes (FNC)
Alan Bonsell (Dover BofE)
Bill Buckingham (Dover BofE)
George W. Bush
Bruce Chapman (DI)
The Coors Family
William A. Dembski
Leonard Downie (WaPo)
John Gibson (FNC)
Fred Hiatt (WaPo)
James F. Inhofe
Philip E. Johnson
by Joel Pelletier
(click on image for more info)
Stephen C. Meyer (DI)
Judith Miller (ex-NYT)
Sun Myung Moon
Elspeth Reeve (TNR)
Martin Peretz (TNR)
Richard Mellon Scaife
Susan Schmidt (WaPo)
John Solomon (WaPo)
Richard Thompson (TMLC)
Bob Woodward (WaPo)
All the fine sites I've
Be sure to visit them all!!
Arthur C. Clarke
Daniel C. Dennett
Philip K. Dick
Stephen Jay Gould
"The Harder They Come"
Ursula K. LeGuin
The Marx Brothers
Michael C. Penta
Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger
"The Red Shoes"
"Singin' in the Rain"
Talking Heads/David Byrne
Hunter S. Thompson
"2001: A Space Odyssey"
If you read unfutz at least once a week, without fail, your teeth will be whiter and your love life more satisfying.
If you read it daily, I will come to your house, kiss you on the forehead, bathe your feet, and cook pancakes for you, with yummy syrup and everything.
(You might want to keep a watch on me, though, just to avoid the syrup ending up on your feet and the pancakes on your forehead.)
Finally, on a more mundane level, since I don't believe that anyone actually reads this stuff, I make this offer: I'll give five bucks to the first person who contacts me and asks for it -- and, believe me, right now five bucks might as well be five hundred, so this is no trivial offer.