WASHINGTON

                              KERRY BUSH NADER MOE

Strategic Vision  9/20 - 9/22  46    45    2    3   (Kerry by 1)

Survey USA        9/19 - 9/21  51    46    -    4   (Kerry by 5)

Ipsos Pub. Aff.   9/17 - 9/20  51    42    2    4.9 (Kerry by 9)

Elway Poll        9/17 - 9/19  52    38    -    5   (Kerry by 14)

CALIFORNIA

                              KERRY BUSH NADER MOE

Strategic Vision  9/20 - 9/22  48    43    -    3   (Kerry by 5)

Los Angeles Times 9/17 - 9/21  53    40    2    3   (Kerry by 13)

Pub. Policy Inst  9/12 - 9/19  51    39    -    3   (Kerry by 12

I think, as I've expressed before, that what you see is a deliberate attempt to undermine Kerry's public position by shaving off points from his poll results wherever and whenever possible -- always being careful never to go too far and present results that no one will believe. The margin of error gives a fair amount of wiggle room for these guys to play within, and I think they're using it for all it's worth.

It would really be best if people dropped SV's results from their poll-driven Electoral College estimations, because they're not trustworthy, in my humble opinion.

For more, see this anlysis and the further links in that post.


Update (9/28): In an e-mail to me, TruthIsAll had some interesting things to say:

I have been posting on just this topic at DU [Democratic Underground].

On the state level, a comparison of results from the model.

On the national level, to distinguish between National pollsters, I have created a separate group of 8 Independent pollsters, who are part of the existing full group of 18 corporate and independents.

Is it just a coincidence that the Independent 8 National Group has the race tied at 46%, whereas the full 18 Group has Bush leading by 2%? This means the corporates have Bush leading by an average of 4%.

The effect on the probability of a Kerry win (defined as the probability of getting a majority of the popular vote) based on these two National polling groups is very interesting.

In an unbelievable coincidence, they are exactly reversed as of today.

For the 8 independents: Kerry has a 92.38% win probability.
For the full group of 18, Bush has a 92.38% win probability.

The State model, based on Monte Carlo Simulation, gives Kerry a 91% probability. So the State model confirms the Independents National model.

The numbers are quite interesting:

State Model:
Kerry current poll weighted average is 46.49%, projected to 50.85% with a win probability of 91.0%.

National 8 model:
Kerry current poll average is 46%, projected to 50.80%, with a win probability of 92.38%.

This is a key point: Both models use totally different methods to compute probabilities and derive Kerry's national popular forecast.

The National model applies the tight MoE for the 8 polls (8,000 respondents) to the projected Kerry % to derive his probability.

The State model uses the results of 5000 simulations based on the latest weighted state polls (mostly Zogby and ARG) to calculate the probability (the number of Kerry wins divided by 5000).

The race is tied if one looks at the current national 8 average poll and the weighted state polls.

But it's NOT really tied, since Kerry will get the bulk of the remaining undecided and other 3rd party voters, not to mention the effects of the unknowable and potentially massive democratic turnout.

Kerry is on the verge of closing the deal.

TruthIsAll

• current status
  Kerry 207 - Bush 331
  (was: 273-233-32)
  
  
• election day projection
  Kerry 171 - Bush 329 - ?? 38 (IA, NY[!])
  (was: 255-263-20)

Fagan: Electline (9/19 - restored):
Kerry 242 - Bush 296
(was 238-300 on 8/8)

Federal Review (9/14):
Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(was: 249-289)

First in the Nation (9/20):
Kerry 233 - Bush 305
(was: 254-275-9)

Ed Fitzgerald (9/19):
Kerry 260 - Bush 278
(was: 305-233)

(Note: Provoked by the 9/20 Zogby results, my own numbers have changed to 291-247 -- due to WI & PA flipping from Bush to Kerry -- but I have not included this in the totals below. Next week's survey will reflect any changes that come about due to the Zogby results, and other new poll results.)

Matthew Hubbard (9/18):
Kerry 222 - Bush 280 - ?? 36 (CO, FL)
(was: 259-243-36)

Human Events (9/17 - news report):
Kerry 211 - Bush 327
(new to survey)

LA Times (9/20):
Kerry 146 - Bush 180 - ?? 212
(was: 146-168-224)

Leip Atlas (500 "most recent" user predictions; 9/19):

• state by state medians
  Kerry 254 - Bush 284
  (was: 264-274)
  
  
• overall medians
  Kerry 259 - Bush 256 - ?? 23
  (was: 264-252-21)
  
  
• state polls aggregate
  Kerry 211 - Bush 285 - ?? 42
  (was: 211-237-90)

MyDD (9/19):
Kerry 208 - Bush 330
(was: 305-233)

My Election Analysis (9/20):
Kerry 214 - Bush 324
(was: 254-284)

Newsweek (9/19):
Kerry 221 - Bush 280 - ?? 37 (CO, IA, PA)
(was: 231-291-16)

(Note: The Newsweek map shows 10 swing states. I've derived the numbers here by looking at each state's latest poll, as provided by Newsweek, and assigning each state accordingly.)

Pollbooth (9/17)
Kerry 228 - Bush 284 - ?? 34 (IA, NM, PA)
(was: 242-247-49)

Pollkatz (9/20):
Kerry 266 - Bush 272
(was: 282-256)

President Elect 2004 (9/16):
Kerry 233 - Bush 305
(was: 264-274)

Race2004 (9/19):

• current poll status
  Kerry 205 - Bush 227 - ?? 106
  (was: 216-216-106)
  
  
• election held today
  Kerry 246 - Bush 292
  (was: 291-225-22)

Rasmussen (9/20):
Kerry 189 - Bush 213 - ?? 136
(was: 175-213-150)

Real Clear Politics (9/19)
Kerry 214 - Bush 284 - ?? 40 (MN, NH, NM, PA)
(was: 228-269-41)

Larry Sabato (9/7 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(not updated)

Samboni's State-by-State (9/17):
Kerry 218 - Bush 320
(was: 275-254-9)

Alcon San Croix (9/20 - new):
Kerry 177 - Bush 333 - ?? 28
(new to survey)

Benjamin Schak (9/15):
Kerry 221 - Bush 317
(was: 253-285)

Robert Silvey (9/16):
Kerry 254 - Bush 275 - ?? 9 (CO)
(was: 291-238-9)

Tradesports/intrade (9/19):

• Fitzgerald conversion [50 = toss-up]
  Kerry 250 - Bush 288
  (was: 254-284)
  
  
• Geekmedia conversion [45-55 = toss-up]
  Kerry 243 - Bush 284 - ?? 11 (IA, NH)
  (was: 254-274-10)

(Note: For further information on converting Tradesports data see here and here.)

Tripias (9/19):
Kerry 211 - Bush 327
(was: 275-263)

TruthIsAll (9/19):
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(was 295-243)

Sam Wang (9/19):
Kerry 232 - Bush 306
(was: 279-259)

(Note: Prof. Wang has added a new feature to his analysis, a "swing index" which shows how close this election is.)

Washington Dispatch (9/19):
Kerry 202 - Bush 336
(was: 233-305)

Wayne in Missouri (9/17):
Kerry 215 - Bush 323
(was: 222-316)

David Wissing (9/19):
Kerry 202 - Bush 336
(was: 254-284)

Young Conservatives (9/16):
Kerry 180 - Bush 341 - ?? 17 (MI)
(was: 211-295-32)

Zogby/WSJ (9/20):
Kerry 297 - Bush 241
(was: 307-231)

2.004k.com (9/19):
Kerry 202 - Bush 336
(was: 243-265-30)


STATS

47 SITES
(was: 49 - 5 dropped, 1 restored, 1 new, plus one news report)

Kerry winning: 2 (was: 14)
Kerry ahead: 1 (4)

Tied: 0 (1)

Bush winning: 40 (20)
Bush ahead: 4 (10)

        gained     lost    no change
Kerry    5 (17)   36 (11)    2 (8)
Bush    37 (15)    5 (15)    1 (6)
??       3 (9)    15 (9)     3 (4)

Site no change: 0 (5)
Site not updated: 2 (8)

New: 1 (2)
News reports: 1 (3)

Reinstated: 1
Temporarily dropped: 5 (4)


AVERAGES
MEAN: Kerry 224 - Bush 293 - ?? 21
(was: 249-253-36)

MEDIAN: Kerry 221 - Bush 291 (remainder: 26)
(was: 254-259-25)

MODE: Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(was: 254-233-51)

• "Mean" is what we usually call "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
  
  
• "Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
  
  
• "Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times.

RANGE
Kerry max: 297 (311)
Kerry min: 146 (146)

Bush max: 341 (316)
Bush min: 180 (166)

SUMMARY

If the results of last week's survey were somewhat difficult to interpret, this week is entirely different, and the results are abundantly clear. Bush has overtaken Kerry, and now sits just about where Kerry was a month ago. The trackers are practically unanimous in declaring Bush as having enough electoral votes to win: 40 of 47 sites have him winning, with another 4 showing him in the lead; on the other hand, only two sites have Kerry winning (one of them is Zogby/WSJ), and one other shows a Kerry lead.

At the moment, Bush has 291 to 293 votes, while Kerry has 221 to 224.


UPDATES ETC.

• Since I'm spending the bulk of the week in a place with poor Internet access, I really can't update the survey as I usually do in the days after I post it. I'll do what I can on Monday night and Tuesday morning to make sure everything is up to date -- including the latest Rasmussen and Zogby numbers (note: which I have now done) -- but any updates after that will have to wait until the next iteration a week from now.
  
  
• Due to a complete oversight on my part, in the first couple of publications of this post I forgot to include a new site, the proprietor of which is Alcon San Croix, who describes himself in this way: "I am a 14-year-old student from Tacoma, Washington. I am a progressive Democrat, although certainly not a partisan hack." I have now included his site, with my apologies for the unintended slight.
  
  
• Although I have included a note to my own projection to indicate how it has changed as a result of the new Zogby numbers, I haven't included the new numbers in the totals, nor do I intend to update all the sites to reflect any changes provoked by Zogby. We will see what those changes are in the next survey, which I should be able to do in one week, on Sunday 9/26 - Monday 9/27.

PREVIOUS

• Sept 13
• Sept 6
• August 29
• August 22
• August 15
• August 7
• August 1
• July 25
• July 20
• July 6
• June 25

E.C.

FEC
NARA
Web Zine

NOTES

From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.

I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.

My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.

Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. Right now, until around the end of September, I'll keep a "stagnant" site in the survey for about 3 weeks. For the first half of October that will tighten up to 2 weeks. From the middle of October until the election, it'll be a week at most.

One-time Electoral College analysis articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single interation of the survey, unless they are replaced by a new article.

As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral
College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.


NOT INCLUDED

The following sites have been removed for the reasons indicated:

Bloomberg (9/10)
Kerry 161 - Bush 184 - ?? 193
(one-time news report)

Knight Ridder (9/10):
Kerry 168 - Bush 166 - ?? 204
(one-time news report)

Our Campaigns (9/12):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(numbers have never changed since being added to the survey)

Running the Numbers (9/11):
Kerry 263 - Bush 275
(on hiatus)

Washington Post (9/12)
Kerry 207 - Bush 217 - ?? 114
(one-time news report)


The following sites were removed in previous weeks for the reasons listed:

AP (9/4 - removed 9/13):
Kerry 211 - Bush 237 - ?? 90
(one-time news report)

CNN (8/27 - removed 9/13):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(one-time news report)

mattb25 (8/19 - removed 9/13)
Kerry 327 - Bush 211
(out of date)

National Journal's Hotline (9/2 - removed 9/13):
Kerry 231 - Bush 264 - ?? 43 (AR, IA, OH, WI)
(no access to site)

J. Daniel Behun (8/2 - removed 9/6):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(out of date)

hR's (8/29 - removed 9/6)
Kerry 247 - Bush 202 - ?? 88
(site's numbers don't add up)

Kenneth Quinnell (8/8 - removed 9/6):
Kerry 303 - Bush 207 - ?? 28
(out of date)