(Note: Votemaster, the proprietor of the Electoral-vote.com site, has dropped their election day projection feature.)

Federal Review (10/12):
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(was: 243-295)

First in the Nation (10/11):
Kerry 258 - Bush 280
(was: 251-287)

Ed Fitzgerald (10/7):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(was: 247-291)

(Note: As of 10/15, I've updated to Kerry 289 - Bush 249.)

The Gadflyer (average of 18 predictions; 9/30 - news report):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(new to survey)

Hardball Horserace (10/11):
Kerry 200 - Bush 217 - ?? 121
(no change)

Matthew Hubbard (10/9):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(was: 247-291)

LA Times (10/11):
Kerry 153 - Bush 167 - ?? 218
(was: 153-177-208)

Dave Leip's Atlas (500 "most recent" user predictions; 10/11):

• state by state medians
  Kerry 254 - Bush 284
  (was: 247-291)
  
  
• overall medians
  Kerry 269 - Bush 269 tie
  (was: 253-285)
  
  
• state polls aggregate
  Kerry 217 - Bush 250 - ?? 71
  (was: 181-266-91)

Andrea Moro (was "Amoro"; 10/11):
Kerry 262 - Bush 275 - ?? 1
(was: 242-296)

MyDD (10/11):
Kerry 274 - Bush 264
(was: 267-271)

My Election Analysis (10/8):
Kerry 238 - Bush 300
(was: 243-295)

National Journal's Hotline (via C-SPAN @ 1:35:00; 10/8):
Kerry 218 - Bush 245 - ?? 75
(was: 185-291-62)

New York Times (10/12 - new):
Kerry 221 - Bush 232 - ?? 85
(new to survey)

Political Oddsmaker (9/30 - new):
Kerry 248 - Bush 279 - ?? 11
(new to survey)

Pollbooth (10/11)
Kerry 242 - Bush 287 - ?? 9 (ME-1, NH, CO-4)
(was: 220-291-27)

Pollkatz (10/9):
Kerry 277 - Bush 261
(was: 266-272)

President Elect 2004 (9/29 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 245 - Bush 293
(not updated)

Race2004 (10/11):

• current poll status
  Kerry 243 - Bush 196 - ?? 99
  (was: 165-285-88)
  
  
• election held today
  Kerry 264 - Bush 274
  (was: 249-289)

Rasmussen (10/11):
Kerry 194 - Bush 240 - ?? 104
(was: 169-213-156)

Real Clear Politics (10/11):
Kerry 220 - Bush 269 - ?? 54 (IA,ME-1,MN,NH,NM,OH,OR)
(was: 200-291-47)

Red State Blue State (10/9):
Kerry 227 - Bush 311
(was: 204-334)

Larry Sabato (10/4 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(not updated)

Samboni's State-by-State (10/11):
Kerry 291 - Bush 247
(was: 212-295-31)

Alcon San Croix (10/9):
Kerry 246 - Bush 292 - ?? 5 (NM)
(was: 237-292-9)

Benjamin Schak (10/10 - restored):
Kerry 244 - Bush 294
(was: 221-317 on 9/15)

Search The Links (10/11 - new):
Kerry 254 - Bush 266 - ?? 18 (ME, NH, NM, WV)
(new to survey; was 259-266-13 on 10/8)

Robert Silvey (10/7):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(no change)

Slate (10/11):
Kerry 265 - Bush 273
(was 190-348)

Tradesports/intrade (10/11):

• Fitzgerald conversion [50 = toss-up]
  Kerry 247 - Bush 291
  (was: 243-295)
  
  
• Geekmedia conversion [45-55 = toss-up]
  Kerry 243 - Bush 287 - ?? 11 (IA, NH)
  (was: 243-291-4)

(Note: For further information on converting Tradesports data see here and here.)

Tripias (10/5):
Kerry 274 - Bush 264
(was: 242-296)

TruthIsAll (10/11):
Kerry 325 - Bush 213
(was: 280-258)

Sam Wang's Meta-Analysis (10/11):
Kerry 269 - Bush 269 tie
(was: 235-303)

Washington Dispatch (10/10):
Kerry 269 - Bush 269 tie
(was: 225-313)

Wayne in Missouri (10/5):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(no change)

David Wissing (10/10):
Kerry 268 - Bush 270
(was: 217-321)

Zogby/WSJ (10/6):
Kerry 322 - Bush 216
(was: 297-241)

2.004k.com (10/11):
Kerry 275 - Bush 259 - ?? 4 (NH)
(was: 207-300-31)


STATS

57 PROJECTIONS FROM 53 SITES
(was: 50 from 45 - 3 dropped, 2 restored, 5 new, plus 3 news reports)

Kerry winning: 13 (was: 3)
Kerry ahead: 3 (1)

Tied: 3 (0)

Bush winning: 25 (39)
Bush ahead: 13 (7)

        gained      lost     no change
Kerry   38  (9)     4 (17)    6 (17)
Bush     5 (16)    37 (10)    6 (17)
??       8  (7)    10 (8)     2 (0)

Site no change: 4 (15)
Site not updated: 4 (3)

New: 5 (5)
News reports: 4 (1)

Restored: 2 (1)
Dropped: 3 (5)


AVERAGES
MEAN: Kerry 249 - Bush 261 - ?? 28
(was: 227-283-28)

MEDIAN: Kerry 247 - Bush 266 - (remainder: 25)
(was: 237.5-291-9.5)

MODE: Kerry 247 [n=5] - Bush 264 [n=4] - (remainder: 27)
(was: 243-291-4)

JOINT MODE: Kerry 247 - Bush 291 [n=3]
(new)

• "Mean" is what is colloquially called "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
  
  
• "Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
  
  
• "Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times. The "n=" number indicates how many times the number listed appears.
  
  
• "Joint Mode" is not a standard statistical term (as far as I know). Rather than determine the mode of Kerry's and Bush's numbers individually, "joint mode" measures which combination of Kerry and Bush counts appears most frequently in the survey. The "n=" number indicates how many times it appears.

RANGE
Kerry max: 325 (297)
Kerry min: 153 (153)

Bush max: 311 (348)
Bush min: 167 (177)

SUMMARY

According to the data mined from the Electoral College trackers, this was a good week for Kerry. While a majority of the 57 sites surveyed have Bush winning (25 sites) or ahead (13 others), the same majority (38 sites) showed Kerry gaining electoral votes this week while Bush lost them (37 sites). Meanwhile, the number of sites showing Kerry winning quadrupled from 3 to 13.

Kerry has clearly made great strides in taking back a good deal of the territory Bush had reclaimed over the last month, reducing Bush's 50 point advantage of last week to a current 14 - 17 point Bush advantage. (At the moment, Bush has 261 to 266 electoral votes, while Kerry has 247 to 249.) Three sites showed a tie, another indication that Kerry has almost closed the gap with Bush.





(Note: Compare these to the graph below, from Jerome Armstrong of MyDD.)




UPDATES & CORRECTIONS

• For a few days after I publish the survey, I'll update figures, make corrections, and add new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site when appropriate.
  
  
• The next iteration of the survey will be on Monday October 18.
  
  
• (10/11) The New York Times now has an Electoral College feature which they say will be frequently updated, so I've added it into the survey.
  
  
• (10/12) Thanks (once again) to Matt Nelson for the pointer to the Electoral College analysis on ABC News's The Note Matt also says that the NYT site has not been consistently updated in the past.
  
  
• (10/12) I got an e-mail from "Frank Myers CPT ARMOR, US Corps of Engineers Baghdad, Iraq" (who has a website, Citizen Frank) pointing me to his 9/26 Electoral College analysis (Kerry 263 - Bush 274 - ?? 1 - an abstaining WV elector). In the course of doing the survey, I've received a number of e-mails from people who do one-time or very occasional EC breakdowns on their blogs and other sites, and I generally don't include them in the survey because I'm primarily interested in people who track electoral votes over time using an explicit methodology. Otherwise, the survey would become even more cumbersome to do then it already is.
  
  
• (10/12) I've adjusted Mark Durrenberger's 10/11 figures to account for Maine and Nebraska, the only states at this moment which do not award their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote in the state. (Some are awarded to the winner in each congressional district.) Mark's current numbers: Kerry 268 - Bush 270.
  
  
• (10/12) Of all the stats I provide, the mode has been the least useful, because it's possible for the mode to be determined by as little as two appearances in the survey. To help judge the validity of the mode numbers, I'm going to start indicating how many times they appear -- hence the addition of the "n=" tag. I'm also adding something I'm calling "joint mode" until I find out what the actual name for this concept is. "Joint mode" measures what combination of Kerry and Bush numbers appears most often in the survey.
  
  
• (10/13) E. Alan Meece points me to his no-frills website, Electoral College Survey, where he says he's been tracking the electoral college situation for several months. Currently, his status is: Kerry 246 - Bush 265 -- ?? 27. I'll include Eric's numbers in the next iteration of the survey.
  
  
• (10/14) Thanks to my friend Shirley, I'll be adding another site to the next iteration of the survey: Electoral Expectations, where the current status is Kerry 273 - Bush 265
  
  
• (10/15) I've just noticed that the website I've been labelling as "Amoro" is actually attributed to Andrea Moro, so I've changed the title and moved it down to the proper place in the alphabetical listing.
  
  
• (10/16) Elsewhere on unfutz, take a look at these graphs of the polling in four crucial states.
  
  
• (10/16) Thanks to Susanna Cornett, who blogs for the Detroit News Online for her mention of the survey, and even more so for her description of me as "hard-working and apparently quite competent liberal blogger Ed Fitzgerald."
  
  
• (10/16) Another new prediction to be included in the next survey is that of George Axiotakis, who goes by "The Groundhog". Find his latest here (Kerry 301 - Bush 237), and an explanation of his methodology here.

PREVIOUS SURVEYS

4-Oct / 27-Sept / 19-Sept / 13-Sept / 6-Sept / 29-Aug / 22-Aug / 15-Aug / 7-Aug / 1-Aug / 25-July / 20-July / 6-July / 25-June


NOTES

From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.

I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.

My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.

Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. For the first half of October I'll keep a "stagnant" site in the survey about 2 weeks. From the middle of October until the election, that will tighten up to a week at most.

One-time Electoral College analysis articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single iteration of the survey, unless they are replaced by a new article.

As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral
College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.


NOT INCLUDED

The following sites have been removed for the reasons indicated:

mattb25 (9/22)
Kerry 291 - Bush 247
(out of date)

Electoral-vote.com election day projection (10/4)
Kerry 179 - Bush 345 - ?? 14 (ME, MN)
(ceased updating)

Newsweek (9/27):
Kerry 198 - Bush 192 - ?? 148
(no longer a feature)


The following sites were removed in previous weeks for the reasons listed:

Chuck Buckley (9/23 - removed 10/4):
Kerry 300 - Bush 233
(ceased updating)

Fagan: Electline (9/19 - removed 10/4):
Kerry 242 - Bush 296
(out of date)

Young Conservatives (9/16 - removed 10/4):
Kerry 180 - Bush 341 - ?? 17 (MI)
(out of date)

Human Events (9/17 - removed 9/27):
Kerry 211 - Bush 327
(one-time news report)

Knight Ridder (9/10 - removed 9/19):
Kerry 168 - Bush 166 - ?? 204
(one-time news report)

Our Campaigns (9/12 - removed 9/19):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(numbers have never changed since being added to the survey)

Running the Numbers (9/11 - removed 9/19):
Kerry 263 - Bush 275
(on hiatus)

Washington Post (9/12 - removed 9/19):
Kerry 207 - Bush 217 - ?? 114
(one-time news report)

AP (9/4 - removed 9/13):
Kerry 211 - Bush 237 - ?? 90
(one-time news report)

J. Daniel Behun (8/2 - removed 9/6):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(out of date)

hR's (8/29 - removed 9/6)
Kerry 247 - Bush 202 - ?? 88
(site's numbers don't add up)

Kenneth Quinnell (8/8 - removed 9/6):
Kerry 303 - Bush 207 - ?? 28
(out of date)

The Mission of George W. Bush

With less than 30 days until Election Day, CNN examines President Bush's first term and what we have we learned about him and his style.

I don't want to be pedantic or anything, and I'm sure this is purely an innocent error and not indicative of any prejudice on CNN's part, but what we are nearing the end of cannot be called "President Bush's first term" until he starts a second term, or at least wins this election. Until then, it is merely "President Bush's term of office," and not his "first term."

Hmmm, first AP, then...