• current status
  Kerry 234 - Bush 280 - ?? 24 (MD, MN, NH)
  (was: 207-331)
  
  
• election day projection
  Kerry 192 - Bush 336 - ?? 10 (MD!)
  (was: 171-329-38)

Fagan: Electline (9/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 242 - Bush 296
(not updated)

Federal Review (9/28):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(was: 254-284)

First in the Nation (9/27):
Kerry 251 - Bush 287
(was: 233-305)

Ed Fitzgerald (9/26):
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(was: 260-278)

Matthew Hubbard (9/25):
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(was: 222-280-36)

LA Times (9/27):
Kerry 153 - Bush 173 - ?? 212
(was: 146-180-212)

Leip Atlas (500 "most recent" user predictions; 9/26):

• state by state medians
  Kerry 254 - Bush 284
  (no change)
  
  
• overall medians
  Kerry 250 - Bush 257 - ?? 31
  (was: 259-256-23)
  
  
• state polls aggregate
  Kerry 181 - Bush 259 - ?? 98
  (was: 211-285-42)

mattb25 (9/22 - restored)
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(was: 327-211 on 8/19)

MyDD (9/27):
Kerry 274 - Bush 264
(was: 208-330)

My Election Analysis (9/24):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(was: 214-324)

Newsweek (9/27):
Kerry 198 - Bush 192 - ?? 148
(was: 221-280-37)

(Note: I've converted to a more conservative method of counting Newsweek's results, which is that all toss-up states -- the number of which changes in every installment -- are simply counted as toss-ups and not assigned to one candidate or the other on the basis of poll results, as I was doing. I changed because this seems more in line with Newsweek's intent.)

Pollbooth (9/24)
Kerry 220 - Bush 291 - ?? 27 (ME-1, NM, PA)
(was: 228-284-34)

Pollkatz (9/27):
Kerry 266 - Bush 272
(no change)

President Elect 2004 (9/23):
Kerry 244 - Bush 294
(was: 233-305)

Race2004 (9/27):

• current poll status
  Kerry 182 - Bush 238 - ?? 118
  (was: 205-227-106)
  
  
• election held today
  Kerry 247 - Bush 291
  (was: 246-292)

Rasmussen (9/24):
Kerry 211 - Bush 213 - ?? 114
(was: 189-213-136)

Real Clear Politics (9/27)
Kerry 221 - Bush 291 - ?? 26 (MN, NH, NM, OR)
(was: 214-284-40)

Larry Sabato (9/21):
Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(no change)

Samboni's State-by-State (9/27):
Kerry 233 - Bush 276 - ?? 29 (MD, NH, NC)
(was: 218-320)

Alcon San Croix (9/26):
Kerry 243 - Bush 291 - ?? 4
(was: 177-333-28)

Benjamin Schak (9/15 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 221 - Bush 317
(not updated)

Robert Silvey (9/23):
Kerry 222 - Bush 316
(was: 254-275-9)

Tradesports/intrade (9/27):

• Fitzgerald conversion [50 = toss-up]
  Kerry 243 - Bush 295
  (was: 250-288)
  
  
• Geekmedia conversion [45-55 = toss-up]
  Kerry 243 - Bush 291 - ?? 4 (ME)
  (was: 243-284-11)

(Note: For further information on converting Tradesports data see here and here.)

Tripias (9/23):
Kerry 235 - Bush 303
(was: 211-327)

TruthIsAll (9/27 - corrected):
Kerry 300 - Bush 238
(was: 247-291)

Sam Wang (9/27):
Kerry 246 - Bush 292
(was: 232-306)

Washington Dispatch (9/26):
Kerry 235 - Bush 303
(was: 202-336)

Wayne in Missouri (9/24):
Kerry 236 - Bush 302
(was: 215-323)

David Wissing (9/26):
Kerry 235 - Bush 303
(was: 202-336)

Young Conservatives (9/16 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 180 - Bush 341 - ?? 17 (MI)
(not updated)

Zogby/WSJ (9/20 - not updated since last survey):):
Kerry 297 - Bush 241
(not updated)

2.004k.com (9/27):
Kerry 211 - Bush 283 - ?? 44 (MD, MN, NH, OH)
(was: 202-336)


STATS

49 SITES
(was: 47 - 1 dropped, 1 restored, plus 2 news reports)

Kerry winning: 4 (was: 2)
Kerry ahead: 1 (1)

Tied: 0 (0)

Bush winning: 36 (40)
Bush ahead: 9 (4)

        gained     lost    no change
Kerry   26 (5)    14 (36)    5 (2)
Bush    14 (37)   27 (5)     4 (1)
??       8 (3)    11 (15)    4 (3)

Site no change: 3 (0)
Site not updated: 4 (2)

New: 0 (0)
News reports: 2 (1)

Reinstated: 1 (1)
Temporarily dropped: 1 (5)


AVERAGES
MEAN: Kerry 231 - Bush 277 - ?? 30
(was: 224-293-21)

MEDIAN: Kerry 237 - Bush 291 (remainder: 10)
(was: 221-291-26)

MODE: Kerry 243 - Bush 291 (remainder: 4)
(was: 254-284)

• "Mean" is what is colloquially called "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
  
  
• "Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
  
  
• "Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times.

RANGE
Kerry max: 300 (297)
Kerry min: 143 (146)

Bush max: 341 (341)
Bush min: 163 (180)

SUMMARY

No really significant change from last week. Bush still leads Kerry by a sizable margin according to almost every site (only 4 of 49 sites show Kerry winning and one shows him ahead, while 36 show Bush winning and 8 show him ahead) but more than half of the sites showed Kerry gaining votes and Bush losing them (and only about a third showed the opposite), and Kerry did manage to make some improvement in his position, on the order of about 12 to 27 votes.

Nevertheless, Bush is ahead, now with 277 to 291 electoral votes, a drop of 2 to 14 votes from last week, and Kerry is at 231 to 237, a gain of about 10 to 13 votes. It's difficult to know if this shift is the precursor to larger changes or just an adjustment in a new status quo.


UPDATES ETC.

• Since I'm spending the bulk of the week in a place with poor Internet access, I really can't update the survey as I usually do in the days after I post it. I'll do what I can on Monday night and Tuesday morning to make sure everything is up to date but any updates after that will have to wait until the next iteration a week from now.
  
  
• In the first publication of this post I got the numbers backwards for TruthIsAll. I've fixed that now.

PREVIOUS

• Sept 19
• Sept 13
• Sept 6
• August 29
• August 22
• August 15
• August 7
• August 1
• July 25
• July 20
• July 6
• June 25

E.C.

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NOTES

From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.

I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.

My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.

Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. Right now, until around the end of September, I'll keep a "stagnant" site in the survey for about 3 weeks. For the first half of October that will tighten up to 2 weeks. From the middle of October until the election, it'll be a week at most.

One-time Electoral College analysis articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single interation of the survey, unless they are replaced by a new article.

As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral
College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.


NOT INCLUDED

The following sites have been removed for the reasons indicated:

Human Events (9/17):
Kerry 211 - Bush 327
(one-time news report)


The following sites were removed in previous weeks for the reasons listed:

Knight Ridder (9/10 - removed 9/19):
Kerry 168 - Bush 166 - ?? 204
(one-time news report)

Our Campaigns (9/12 - removed 9/19):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(numbers have never changed since being added to the survey)

Running the Numbers (9/11 - removed 9/19):
Kerry 263 - Bush 275
(on hiatus)

Washington Post (9/12 - removed 9/19):
Kerry 207 - Bush 217 - ?? 114
(one-time news report)

AP (9/4 - removed 9/13):
Kerry 211 - Bush 237 - ?? 90
(one-time news report)

National Journal's Hotline (9/2 - removed 9/13):
Kerry 231 - Bush 264 - ?? 43 (AR, IA, OH, WI)
(no access to site)

J. Daniel Behun (8/2 - removed 9/6):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(out of date)

hR's (8/29 - removed 9/6)
Kerry 247 - Bush 202 - ?? 88
(site's numbers don't add up)

Kenneth Quinnell (8/8 - removed 9/6):
Kerry 303 - Bush 207 - ?? 28
(out of date)