It's been a little over a week since my last survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast / scoreboard / map sites, so it's time to once again take a look and see where we stand.
[Note: From each of these websites I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible. I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation. -- Ed]
J. Daniel Behun (8/2 - not updated since last survey): Kerry 284 - Bush 254 (not updated)
Fagan: Electline (8/8 - new): Kerry 238 - Bush 300 (noted, but not included in last survey)
(Update: Link changed to point to Fagan's e-mail to me, which should be publicly accessible. Please let me know of any problems getting to it. More: That didn't work, so I've tried again and reposted it elsewhere. The link has been altered.)
(Update (8/19): Since it's my blog, I'll take advantage and note that I've updated my numbers to Kerry 316 - Bush 222. But I'll resist including the new numbers in the survey stats until the next iteration, probably this weekend or early next week.)
(Note: To do this conversion I've assigned any state in which the value of the Bush-wins contract is over 50 to Bush, and any state under 50 to Kerry. For alternatives see this comment thread. Also, Bruce D. Kothmann has more on the subject here.
In this iteration, Florida's contract was at exactly 50.0. Other interesting values: PA - 29.9, NH - 42.9, WI - 44.0, WV 52.9, MO - 55, OH 58.8, NV 59.9
Update:There's a map, brought to my attention by a commenter on Daily Kos, which displays the Tradesports status, based on a somewhat different default criteria than mine -- contracts valued at 45-55 are considered toss-ups (however, these limits are adjustable by the user to customize the map). Using this standard, they get:
Kerry 264 - Bush 231 - ?? 43 [FL, MO, WV])
Tripias (8/14): Kerry 316 - Bush 222 (was: 296-242)
TruthIsAll (8/15 - new): Kerry 337 - Bush 201 (new to survey; was 334-204 on 8/13)
Sam Wang (8/13 - corrected): Kerry 318 - Bush 220 (was: 307-231)
Site no change: 7 (was: 3) Site not updated: 4 (was: 1) New: 7 (was: 4) Reinstated: 2 Temporarily dropped: 1
ALL SITES MEAN: Kerry 291 - Bush 222 (remainder: 26) (was: 287-230-21)
MEDIAN: Kerry 301 - Bush 220 (remainder: 17) (was: 296-231-11)
MODE: Kerry 264 - Bush 211 (remainder: 63) (was: 296-231-11)
SITES WITH NO ?? MEAN: Kerry 306 - Bush 232 (was: 297-241)
MEDIAN: Kerry 316 - Bush 222 (was: 298.5-239.5)
MODE: Kerry 327 - Bush 211 (was: 296-242)
Another week of consolidation for Kerry, but somewhat less so than last week. He went up pretty much across the board, except for the mode of all sites, reflecting that there's less agreement on the actual count than there was last week. Because of that, it's somewhat harder to categorize numerically the collective wisdom of the electoral vote trackers than it was last week, when 296-242 seemed reasonable, but it's pretty safe to say that Kerry's at, if not a little over, 300 votes.
As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.
(8/15) David Wissing updated his figures in between my starting and finishing writing up the survey, so I've corrected them here and updated the averages.
(8/15) A correspondant pointed me to a posting on Democratic Underground by TruthIsAll in which (in my correspondant's words) "He calculates Kerry win probabilities using 15 national polls in a vote prediction model and also for a state poll model (to determine an EV win probability using Monte Carlo electoral vote simulations of 1000 trials)." TruthIsAll forecasts 334 electoral votes for Kerry. Even though he doesn't have a website, I've added his analysis to the survey, just as I added Thomas Fagan's. I may have to remove them in the future if I cannot track down updates, but they deserve to be noted now. Update to the update: TruthIsAll has posted his analysis to a web address, and updated it as well.
(8/15) In his dKos diary, mattb25 does an analysis of 19 swing states based on an average of all the polling since the selection of Edwards. Buried in the text is an electoral college projection, which I've added to the survey.
(8/15) Perhaps in response to an e-mail I sent, Young Conservatives has updated their prediction, and I've updated the survey and averages to reflect it. Please note that the website shows 90 toss up votes, but the votes of the states listed actually add up to 113, which is the figure I've used.
(8/15) As the result of an e-mail from him, I corrected Sam Wang's prediction to the 50% one, as opposed to the one on his map.
(8/17) Charlie Cook finally updated his Electoral College status (his new report is dated 8/16), so I've added it into the survey.
Well, it's actually not much of an update, really. He's moved Vermont from "likely Kerry" to "strong Kerry" and Delaware and Washington from "lean Kerry" to "likely Kerry." Across the aisle, Georgia moved from "likely Bush" to "solid Bush", and Arizona moved from "likely Bush" to "lean Bush" (the only of these moves that indicated softening of position). None of the ten toss-up states (FL, IA, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, WI) moved, and no state moved from one candidate to the other. Therefore, Cook's considered opinion is that the race right now is pretty much in exactly the same shape that it was in on July 6th.
Josh Marshall credits Cook, as a "veteran politics watcher", with the ability to "see through [the] smoke" and judge which polls are valid and which are not, and places "a lot of stock" in Cook's opinion, but what I see is someone who is tied into the whole inside-the-beltway conventional wisdom establishment, and who's therefore extremely (and perhaps unecessarily) conservative about assigning states. That can prevent him from jumping off half-cocked and declaring bandwagons and landslides where they don't exist, but it can also mean that he's just well behind the curve and not seeing a new reality emerging. (In a way, that's good, because when we see Cook start moving states, we'll know that the CW brigade will be right with him.)
(8/18) I did some minor re-formatting -- no adds or data changes.
hostile to science
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out of control
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i've got a little list...
Steven Abrams (Kansas BofE)
Howard Fieldstead Ahmanson
Roger Ailes (FNC)
Alan Bonsell (Dover BofE)
Bill Buckingham (Dover BofE)
George W. Bush
Bruce Chapman (DI)
The Coors Family
William A. Dembski
Leonard Downie (WaPo)
John Gibson (FNC)
Fred Hiatt (WaPo)
James F. Inhofe
Philip E. Johnson
by Joel Pelletier
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Stephen C. Meyer (DI)
Judith Miller (ex-NYT)
Sun Myung Moon
Elspeth Reeve (TNR)
Martin Peretz (TNR)
Richard Mellon Scaife
Susan Schmidt (WaPo)
John Solomon (WaPo)
Richard Thompson (TMLC)
Bob Woodward (WaPo)
All the fine sites I've
Be sure to visit them all!!
Arthur C. Clarke
Daniel C. Dennett
Philip K. Dick
Stephen Jay Gould
"The Harder They Come"
Ursula K. LeGuin
The Marx Brothers
Michael C. Penta
Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger
"The Red Shoes"
"Singin' in the Rain"
Talking Heads/David Byrne
Hunter S. Thompson
"2001: A Space Odyssey"
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