Saturday, October 30, 2004
 

Electoral College survey (10/30)

[2006 Election Projections Survey]


[New survey (truncated version) posted on 11/2]


Election Day is only three days away, and this is what could be the final edition of the unfutz survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast / scoreboard / map sites. (I hope to do another on Monday, depending on the quality of web access I have in London.)

Since I've been publishing the survey, my traffic has increased tremendously (pushing it right up to #139 in the Truth Laid Bare listing), a situation I'm sure will be reversed once the election is over, if only because at least half of the people who drop by here are of the opposite political ideology from me. Still, I hope that a few folks will want to stop by again and see what's here once I return to normal blogging.

I'd like to thank everyone who linked to the survey or helped to promote it, including Larry Allen, Chris Bowers, Chuck Buckley, Dales, DavidNYC, Scott Elliot, Taegan Goddard, John Orr, Alcon San Croix, TruthIsAll, Sam Wang and David Wissing. (My apologies to anyone I may have inadvertantly overlooked.) My thanks also to those who offered tips, advice and opinions about the survey -- I appreciated them all.

Here's where we are as we come down the home stretch:


ELECTORAL COLLEGE TRACKING SITES

Larry Allen (10/27 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 243 - Bush 237 - ?? 58 (FL, IA, OH, NH)
(not updated)

Boston Globe (10/29):
Kerry 171 - Bush 218 - ?? 149
(was: 188-192-108)

Chris Bowers (10/29):
Kerry 311 - Bush 227
(was: 291-247)

Brian Calhoun (10/30):
Kerry 242 - Bush 296
(no change)

CBS (10/30):
Kerry 190 - Bush 222 - ?? 126
(was: 190-227-121)

CNN (10/28):
Kerry 207 - Bush 227 - ?? 104
(was: 261-277)

Coldhearted Truth (10/29):
Kerry 252 - Bush 286
(was: 242-296)

Charlie Cook (10/29):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(no change)

Dales' EC Breakdown (10/30):
Kerry 228 - Bush 266 - ?? 44 (HI, MN, OH, WI)
(was: 228-249-61)

DC's Political Report (10/30):
Kerry 206 - Bush 206 - ?? 126
(was: 192-213-133)

dc2 electoral (10/29):
Kerry 281 - Bush 257
(was: 267-271)

Mark Durrenberger (10/29):
Kerry 315 - Bush 223
(was: 321-217)

Election Projection (10/30):
Kerry 279 - Bush 259
(was: 262-276)

Electoral Expectations (10/30):
Kerry 266 - Bush 272
(was: 277-261)

Electoral-vote.com (10/30):

Federal Review (10/28):
Kerry 261 - Bush 277
(was: 242-296)

First in the Nation (10/30):
Kerry 258 - Bush 280
(was: 263-275)

Ed Fitzgerald:

The Groundhog (George Axiotakis) (10/29):
Kerry 279 - Bush 259
(was: 284-254)

LA Times (10/29):
Kerry 153 - Bush 168 - ?? 217
(was: 153-190-195)

Dave Leip's Atlas (500 "most recent" user predictions):

E. Alan Meece (10/29):
Kerry 272 - Bush 266
(was: 246-262-30)

Mind the Gap (10/27 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 276 - Bush 262
(not updated)

Andrea Moro (10/30):

  • 2.400k data:
    Kerry 247 - Bush 291
    (was: 276-262)

  • Real Clear Politics data:
    Kerry 265 - Bush 273
    (was: 254-284)

MyDD (10/30):
Kerry 262 - Bush 276
(was: 281-257)

My Election Analysis (10/28):
Kerry 258 - Bush 280
(no change)

National Journal's Hotline (10/29):
Kerry 184 - Bush 217 - ?? 137
(was: 243-217-78)

New York Times (10/30):
Kerry 184 - Bush 217 - ?? 137
(was: 225-227-86)

Now Channel (was 2.004k.com) (10/30):
Kerry 238 - Bush 300
(was: 282-246-10)

Political Oddsmaker (10/27 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 238 - Bush 242 - ?? 58
(not updated)

Pollbooth (10/28)
Kerry 242 - Bush 276 - ?? 20 (OH)
(was: 238-276-24)

Pollkatz (10/26 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 287 - Bush 251
(not updated)

President Elect 2004 (10/28):
Kerry 255 - Bush 283
(was: 261-277)

Race2004 (10/30):

Ramblings on Uncertainty (10/29):
Kerry 275 - Bush 263
(was: 278-260)

Rasmussen (10/28):
Kerry 203 - Bush 222 - ?? 113
(was: 207-222-109)

Real Clear Politics (10/30):
Kerry 207 - Bush 232 - ?? 99 (FL,IA,MN,NH,OH,PA,WI)
(was: 228-234-76)

Red State Blue State (10/28):
Kerry 227 - Bush 311
(was: 228-310)

Larry Sabato (10/26 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 262 - Bush 276
(not updated)

Search The Links (10/29):
Kerry 254 - Bush 234 - ?? 50 (CO, FL, NH, WI)
(was: 234-248-56)

Robert Silvey (10/28):
Kerry 248 - Bush 290
(was: 277-261)

Slate (10/30):
Kerry 272 - Bush 266
(was: 262-276)

Strategisphere (10/27):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(was: 255-283)

Tradesports/intrade (10/30):

(Note: For further information on converting Tradesports data see here and here.)

Tripias (10/28):
Kerry 257 - Bush 281
(no change)

TruthIsAll (10/30):
Kerry 321 - Bush 217
(no change)

USA Today (10/29):
Kerry 165 - Bush 205 - ?? 169
(was: 171-205-162)

Sam Wang's Meta-Analysis (10/30):
Kerry 281 - Bush 257
(was: 309-229)

Washington Dispatch (10/29):
Kerry 229 - Bush 309
(was: 247-291)

Washington Post (10/29):
Kerry 179 - Bush 208 - ?? 151
(no change)

Wayne in Missouri (10/29):
Kerry 259 - Bush 280
(was: 243-295)

David Wissing (10/30):
Kerry 238 - Bush 300
(was: 277-261)

Zogby/WSJ (10/28 - restored):
Kerry 231 - Bush 286 - ?? 21
(was: 264-274)


STATS

60 PROJECTIONS FROM 53 SITES
(was: 67 from 60 - 8 dropped, 1 restored, 0 new, 0 news reports)

Kerry winning: 18 (was: 21)
Kerry ahead: 2 (4)

Tied: 1 (0)

Bush winning: 25 (23)
Bush ahead: 16 (19)
        gained      lost     no change
Kerry 28
(15) 27 (23) 10 (11)
Bush 23 (27) 22 b(4) 10 (8)
?? 11 (7) 9 (10) 2 (2)

Site no change: 5 (7)
Site not updated: 5 (11)

New: 0 (7)
News reports: 0 (0)

Restored: 1 (1)
Dropped: 8 (4)


AVERAGES
MEAN: Kerry 245 - Bush 256 - ?? 37
(was: 248-252-38)

MEDIAN: Kerry 245.5 - Bush 262.5 - (remainder: 21)
(was: 255-257-26)

MODE: Kerry 262 [n=4] - Bush 276 [n=5]
(was: 242-222-74)

JOINT MODE: Kerry 262 - Bush 276 [n=4]
(was: 207-222-107)

Sites without unassigned states
MEAN: Kerry 266 - Bush 272
(269-269)

MEDIAN: Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(was: 267-271)

(For what "mean", "median" and "mode" are, see "Notes" below.)

RANGE
Kerry max: 321 (321)
Kerry min: 153 (153)

Bush max: 311 (310)
Bush min: 168 (166)


SUMMARY

According to the evidence of the Electoral College trackers, the race continues to be quite tight, but Bush has managed to maintain and increase his lead over Kerry.

Bush has 256-263 votes (a gain of 4-6), while Kerry has 245-246 (a drop of 3 to 9 votes). Bush's lead over Kerry, which was 2-4 votes, increased to 11-17.

(They are more closely positioned when considering only the projections of sites which don't show unassigned -- i.e. toss-up or tied -- states: Bush 272-274 vs. Kerry 264-266.)

Bush continues to maintain an edge in sites showing him winning, sites showing him ahead, and sites showing him ahead or winning, but the margins are all almost precisely the same as last time. Bush was also, again, slightly ahead in sites where he gained votes from last time, and in sites where Kerry lost votes, but, again the margins are virtually the same as the survey done several days ago.

It begins to seem definitive, here quite near the end of things, that the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers is not going to give us a clear answer to the question of who is going to win the election. The evidence seems to be that the race is tied, with a modest advantage to Bush. The questions for partisans of both sides would then seem to be:

  • Will Bush's incumbency be to his advantage, wielding the power of the status quo, fear of change, and not rocking the boat, or will the "incumbent rule" hold true and the bulk of the undecideds go for Kerry, giving him the margin he needs?

  • Which party will be most successful at getting their people to the polls, and will the various factors which serve to suppress votes (complaceny, legal maneuvres and dirty tricks) play a significant part in determining the balance of voters?







UPDATES & CORRECTIONS

  • I'm leaving for London later today, so I won't have a lot of opportunity to update this edition of the survey (although (I'll try to do a little before I go). This may or may not be the last edition of the survey, depending on the quality (and cost) of the web access I'll have. If possible, I'll put out another one on Monday 1 November from the U.K.

  • (10/30 2pm) I've gone through all the sites and updated quite a few of them -- due to time contraints I'll list them here instead of marking them individually: Dales, DC's, Election Projection, Elector-vote, Leip, Moro, NYT, Race2004, TruthIsAll, Wang, Wissing, NowChannel. I've updated the averages and other states and rewritten the summary to reflect Bush's slightly larger gain over Kerry than before the updates.

  • (10/31) Andrew Howard has a site, new to the survey, similar to Andrea Moro's, in which the user can specify what poll data to use to run simulations with. Using the data that Howard himself provides, on 10/31, the results are Kerry 280-284 - Bush 254-258. If I'm able to do an update tomorrow, I'll include this site in it.

  • (10/31) After having some FTP problems, Alcon San Croix has updated his site. Results as of 10/30: Kerry 227 - Bush 284 - ?? 25 (OH, ME-2, NH). I'll restore his site in the next survey, if there is one.


PREVIOUS SURVEYS

27-Oct / 24-Oct / 21-Oct / 18-Oct / 11-Oct / 4-Oct / 27-Sept / 19-Sept / 13-Sept / 6-Sept / 29-Aug / 22-Aug / 15-Aug / 7-Aug / 1-Aug / 25-July / 20-July / 6-July / 25-June


NOTES

From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.

I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.

My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.

Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. Two weeks has been the allowance for keeping a "stagnant" site in the survey, but that changed to 10 days begining with this iteration. This will tighten to one week and then, just before the election, I may choose to make it even more restrictive.

One-time Electoral College analysis articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single iteration of the survey (or one week, if I ever start doing it more often than once a week), unless replaced by a new article.

As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral
College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.

Averages

  • "Mean" is what is colloquially called "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.

  • "Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.

  • "Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times. The "n=" number indicates how many times the number listed appears.

  • "Joint Mode" is the combination of Kerry and Bush counts which appears most frequently in the survey. The "n=" number indicates how many times it appears.


A note on my own numbers

I want to make it clear, just in case it isn't already, that the numbers I publish here under my own name (Ed Fitzgerald) are the result of my own methodology, and are not in any way connected with the results of this survey, except that they constitute a single pair of data points in it. That is, neither my current estimation of the system's status, nor my prediction about its final state on Election Day, are meant to illustrate the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, which can be found in the "Summary" section above and the graphs connected to it.


NOT INCLUDED

The following site which appeared in the previous edition of the survey were removed, for the reasons indicated:

AP (10/23 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(out of date)

Business Week (10/22 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 242 - Bush 234 - ?? 62 (FL, OH, NM, WI)
(out of date)

Editor and Publisher (10/27 - new):

  • Philadelphia Inquirer:
    Kerry 168 - Bush 166 - ?? 204
    (can't find URL)

  • South Florida Sun-Sentinel:
    Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
    (can't find URL)

Hardball Horserace (10/25):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(out of date)

Matthew Hubbard (10/23 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 270 - Bush 268
(out of date)

Samboni's State-by-State (10/24 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 280 - Bush 231 - ?? 27 (FL)
(out of date)

Alcon San Croix (10/24 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 280 - Bush 253 - ?? 5 (NH, ME-2)
(out of date)

(Note: Updated now -- see "Updates" above.)


A list of sites removed in previous weeks is here.

Ed Fitzgerald | 10/30/2004 04:30:00 AM | | | del.icio.us | GO: TOP OF HOME PAGE


Wednesday, October 27, 2004
 

Electoral College survey (10/27)

[2006 Election Projections Survey]


[2006 Election Projections Survey]


[New survey (truncated version) posted on 11/2]

[New survey posted on 10/30]

With less than a week to go, here's the third bi-weekly edition of the unfutz survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast / scoreboard / map sites:


ELECTORAL COLLEGE TRACKING SITES

Larry Allen (10/27):
Kerry 243 - Bush 237 - ?? 58 (FL, IA, OH, NH)
(was: 247-274-17)

AP (10/23 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(not updated)

Chris Bowers (10/25):
Kerry 291 - Bush 247
(no change)

Business Week (10/22 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 242 - Bush 234 - ?? 62 (FL, OH, NM, WI)
(not updated)

Brian Calhoun (10/27):
Kerry 242 - Bush 296
(no change)

CBS (10/27):
Kerry 190 - Bush 227 - ?? 121
(was; 217-222-99)

CNN (10/22 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 261 - Bush 277
(not updated)

Coldhearted Truth (10/25):
Kerry 242 - Bush 296
(was: 257-281)

Charlie Cook (10/21 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(not updated)

Dales' EC Breakdown (10/27):
Kerry 228 - Bush 249 - ?? 61 (FL, HI, MN, OH)
(was: 244-294-45)

DC's Political Report (10/27):
Kerry 192 - Bush 213 - ?? 133
(was: 203-200-135)

dc2 electoral (10/27):
Kerry 267 - Bush 271
(was: 276-262)

Mark Durrenberger (10/26):
Kerry 321 - Bush 217
(was: 304-234)

Editor and Publisher (10/27 - new):

  • Boston Globe:
    Kerry 188 - Bush 192 - ?? 108
    (new to survey)

  • Philadelphia Inquirer:
    Kerry 168 - Bush 166 - ?? 204
    (new to survey)

  • South Florida Sun-Sentinel:
    Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
    (new to survey)

  • USA Today:
    Kerry 171 - Bush 205 - ?? 162
    (new to survey)

  • Washington Post (restored):
    Kerry 179 - Bush 208 - ?? 151
    (new to survey)

(Note: The Editor and Publisher roundup of media Electoral College tracking maps also includes the New York Times and the Los Angeles Times, which are included in this survey in their own entries.)

Election Projection (10/24 - corrected):
Kerry 262 - Bush 276
(was: 264-274)

Electoral Expectations (10/28):
Kerry 277 - Bush 261
(was: 268-270)

Electoral-vote.com (10/27):

Federal Review (10/27):
Kerry 242 - Bush 296
(was: 243-295)

First in the Nation (10/27):
Kerry 263 - Bush 275
(no change)

Ed Fitzgerald:

The Groundhog (George Axiotakis) (10/22 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(not updated)

Hardball Horserace (10/25):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(no change)

Matthew Hubbard (10/23 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 270 - Bush 268
(not updated)

LA Times (10/27):
Kerry 153 - Bush 190 - ?? 195
(was: 153-158-227)

Dave Leip's Atlas (500 "most recent" user predictions):

E. Alan Meece (10/27):
Kerry 246 - Bush 262 - ?? 30 (OH, WI)
(was: 246-227-65)

Mind the Gap (10/27):
Kerry 276 - Bush 262
(was: 284-254)

Andrea Moro (10/27):

  • 2.400k data:
    Kerry 276 - Bush 262
    (was: 277-261)

  • Real Clear Politics data (new):
    Kerry 254 - Bush 284
    (new to survey)

MyDD (10/27):
Kerry 281 - Bush 257
(was: 251-287)

My Election Analysis (10/26):
Kerry 258 - Bush 280
(was: 277-261)

National Journal's Hotline (via C-SPAN @ 2:07:00; 10/27):
Kerry 243 - Bush 217 - ?? 78
(was: 205-234-99)

New York Times (10/27):
Kerry 225 - Bush 227 - ?? 86
(was: 225-213-100)

Political Oddsmaker (10/27):
Kerry 238 - Bush 242 - ?? 58
(was: 238-279-21)

Pollbooth (10/25)
Kerry 238 - Bush 276 - ?? 24 (OH, NH)
(was: 243-291-4)

Pollkatz (10/26):
Kerry 287 - Bush 251
(no change)

President Elect 2004 (10/25):
Kerry 261 - Bush 277
(was: 272-266)

Race2004 (10/27):

Ramblings on Uncertainty (10/27 - new):
Kerry 278 - Bush 260
(was: 279-259 as of 10/25)

Rasmussen (10/24 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(not updated)

Real Clear Politics (10/27):
Kerry 228 - Bush 234 - ?? 76
(was: 211-234-93)

Red State Blue State (10/26):
Kerry 228 - Bush 310
(was: 227-311)

Larry Sabato (10/26):
Kerry 262 - Bush 276
(was: 254-284)

Samboni's State-by-State (10/24 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 280 - Bush 231 - ?? 27 (FL)
(not updated)

Alcon San Croix (10/24 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 280 - Bush 253 - ?? 5 (NH, ME-2)
(not updated)

Search The Links (10/25):
Kerry 234 - Bush 248 - ?? 56 (FL, NH, NM, OH)
(was: 267-234-37)

Robert Silvey (10/21 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 277 - Bush 261
(not updated)

Slate (10/27):
Kerry 262 - Bush 276
(was: 267-271)

Strategisphere (10/23):
Kerry 255 - Bush 283
(was: 273-265)

Tradesports/intrade (10/27):

(Note: For further information on converting Tradesports data see here and here.)

Tripias (10/26):
Kerry 257 - Bush 281
(was: 247-291)

TruthIsAll (10/27):
Kerry 321 - Bush 217
(was: 316-222)

Sam Wang's Meta-Analysis (10/27):
Kerry 309 - Bush 229
(was: 311-227)

Washington Dispatch (10/27):
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(was: 230-308)

Wayne in Missouri (10/22 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(not updated)

David Wissing (10/27):
Kerry 277 - Bush 261
(was: 247-291)

2.004k.com (10/27):
Kerry 282 - Bush 246 - ?? 10 (WI)
(was: 253-242-42)


STATS

67 PROJECTIONS FROM 60 SITES
(was: 63 from 58 - 4 dropped, 1 restored, 7 new, 0 news reports)

Kerry winning: 21 (was: 20)
Kerry ahead: 4 (6)

Tied: 0 (1)

Bush winning: 23 (24)
Bush ahead: 19 (12)
        gained      lost     no change
Kerry 15
(14) 23 (24) 11 (10)
Bush 27 (18) 14 (18) 8 (12)
?? 7 (13) 10 (6) 2 (1)

Site no change: 7 (5)
Site not updated: 11 (15)

New: 7 (0)
News reports: 0 (0)

Restored: 1 (0)
Dropped: 4 (3)


AVERAGES
MEAN: Kerry 248 - Bush 252 - ?? 38
(was: 253-256-29)

MEDIAN: Kerry 255 - Bush 257 - (remainder: 26)
(was: 253-261-24)

MODE: Kerry 242 [n=7] - Bush 222 [n=5] - (remainder: 74)
(was: 247-222-69)

JOINT MODE: Kerry 207 - Bush 222 [n=5] - (remainder: 109)
(was: 207-222-89)

Sites without unassigned states
MEAN: Kerry 269 - Bush 269 [tie]
(no change)

MEDIAN: Kerry 267 - Bush 271
(was: 268-270)

(For what "mean", "median" and "mode" are, see "Notes" below.)

RANGE
Kerry max: 321 (316)
Kerry min: 153 (153)

Bush max: 310 (311)
Bush min: 166 (158)


SUMMARY

It's quiet out there -- too quiet.

According to the averages, Bush dropped 4 votes from the last survey, while Kerry's change was +2 to -5. That left Bush with a 2 to 4 vote advantage over Kerry, a little less than last time, when he lead by 3 to 8 votes.

Bush currently has 252 to 257 votes, and Kerry has 248 to 255.

There was little movement in other statistics, none of which indicated a significant advantage for either candidate.







UPDATES & CORRECTIONS

  • For a few days after I publish the survey, I'll make corrections, note updates, and add new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site when appropriate.

  • Expected publishing schedule: Saturday 30 October (in the early a.m.), and, if possible, Monday 1 November (from London).

  • As of the next survey (which will either be the last or the penultimate), I'll be including only those sites which are current (i.e. updated within three or four days maximum). Stagnant sites will be ruthlessly purged.

  • (10/28) Thanks to Richard Martin for pointing out that I used the wrong numbers from Election Projection. I've corrected them and updated the stats and summary.

  • (10/28) The Zogby Interactives are out, dated 10/28 and representing polling from 10/25 to 10/28. The associated Electoral College count is Kerry 231 - Bush 286 - ?? 21.

  • (10/28) An informal walk-through of almost all the sites at just before 3am Eastern (Thursday-Friday overnight) shows no real signs of movement. Bush is at 252-255 votes (from 252-257) and Kerry is at 246-256 (from 248-255). That's anywhere from a 6 point lead for Bush to a 1 point lead for Kerry, as opposed to a 2 to 4 votes lead for Bush yesterday -- so each candidate could be said to be doing better, except that no one's managing to make any real headway, at least according to this metric.


PREVIOUS SURVEYS

24-Oct / 21-Oct / 18-Oct / 11-Oct / 4-Oct / 27-Sept / 19-Sept / 13-Sept / 6-Sept / 29-Aug / 22-Aug / 15-Aug / 7-Aug / 1-Aug / 25-July / 20-July / 6-July / 25-June


NOTES

From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.

I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.

My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.

Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. Two weeks has been the allowance for keeping a "stagnant" site in the survey, but that changed to 10 days begining with this iteration. This will tighten to one week and then, just before the election, I may choose to make it even more restrictive.

One-time Electoral College analysis articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single iteration of the survey (or one week, if I ever start doing it more often than once a week), unless replaced by a new article.

As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral
College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.

Averages

  • "Mean" is what is colloquially called "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.

  • "Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.

  • "Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times. The "n=" number indicates how many times the number listed appears.

  • "Joint Mode" is the combination of Kerry and Bush counts which appears most frequently in the survey. The "n=" number indicates how many times it appears.


A note on my own numbers

I want to make it clear, just in case it isn't already, that the numbers I publish here under my own name (Ed Fitzgerald) are the result of my own methodology, and are not in any way connected with the results of this survey, except that they constitute a single pair of data points in it. That is, neither my current estimation of the system's status, nor my prediction about its final state on Election Day, are meant to illustrate the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, which can be found in the "Summary" section above and the graphs connected to it.


NOT INCLUDED

The following site which appeared in the previous edition of the survey were removed, for the reasons indicated:

mattb25 (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 316 - Bush 222
(out of date)

Benjamin Schak (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(out of date)

Young Conservatives (10/20 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 214 - Bush 295 - ?? 29 (IA, MN, NM, OR)
(out of date)

Zogby/WSJ (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(out of date)

(Note: The Zogby Interactives were updated on 10/28. See "Updates" above.)

A list of sites removed in previous weeks is here.

Ed Fitzgerald | 10/27/2004 11:59:00 PM | | | del.icio.us | GO: TOP OF HOME PAGE

 

Four states, another look

Another look at four states vital to Kerry: Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin. Things are looking up in all of them.



(The previous look is here.)

Ed Fitzgerald | 10/27/2004 02:48:00 AM | | | del.icio.us | GO: TOP OF HOME PAGE


Sunday, October 24, 2004
 

Electoral College survey (10/24)

[2006 Election Projections Survey]


[New survey (truncated version) posted on 11/2]

[New survey posted on 10/30]

[New survey posted on 10/27]


Here's the second bi-weekly edition of the unfutz survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast / scoreboard / map sites:


ELECTORAL COLLEGE TRACKING SITES

Larry Allen (10/20 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 247 - Bush 274 - ?? 17 (IA, WI)
(not updated)

(Note: Updated 10/25, too late for survey:
Kerry 247 - Bush 227 - ?? 64 [FL, IA, OH, WI])

AP (10/23):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(was: 217-222-99)

Chris Bowers (10/24):
Kerry 291 - Bush 247
(was: 316-222)

Business Week (10/22):
Kerry 242 - Bush 234 - ?? 62 (FL, OH, NM, WI)
(was: 242-227-69)

Brian Calhoun (10/24):
Kerry 242 - Bush 296
(was: 247-291)

CBS (10/24):
Kerry 217 - Bush 222 - ?? 99
(no change)

CNN (10/22):
Kerry 261 - Bush 277
(no change)

Coldhearted Truth (10/23):
Kerry 257 - Bush 281
(was: 247-291)

Charlie Cook (10/21 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(not updated)

Dales' EC Breakdown (10/24):
Kerry 244 - Bush 249 - ?? 45 (FL, HI, MN, NH)
(was: 243-264-31)

DC's Political Report (10/23):
Kerry 203 - Bush 200 - ?? 135
(was: 206-236-96)

dc2 electoral (10/22):
Kerry 276 - Bush 262
(was: 263-275)

Mark Durrenberger (10/24):
Kerry 304 - Bush 234
(was: 311-227)

Election Projection (10/17 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(not updated)

(Note: Updated 10/24, too late for survey:
Kerry 242 - Bush 296)

Electoral Expectations (10/25):
Kerry 268 - Bush 270
(was: 264-273)

Electoral-vote.com (10/24):

Federal Review (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(not updated)

(Note: Updated 10/25, too late for survey:
Kerry 242 - Bush 296.)

First in the Nation (10/25):
Kerry 263 - Bush 275
(was: 254-284)

Ed Fitzgerald (10/24):
Kerry 293 - Bush 245
(was: 266-272)

(Note: Updated on 10/27 to Kerry 300 - Bush 238. That's is my estimation of the current status. My Election Day prediction -- as of 10/23 and due for an update soon -- is Kerry 294 - Bush 244. Also, see "Notes" below.)

The Groundhog (George Axiotakis) (10/22):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(was: 301-237)

Hardball Horserace (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(not updated)

(Note: Updated 10/25, too late for survey:
no change.)

Matthew Hubbard (10/23):
Kerry 270 - Bush 268
(277-227-34)

LA Times (10/24):
Kerry 153 - Bush 158 - ?? 227
(was: 153-173-212)

Dave Leip's Atlas (500 "most recent" user predictions):

mattb25 (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 316 - Bush 222
(not updated)

E. Alan Meece (10/23):
Kerry 246 - Bush 227 - ?? 65 (FL, IA, OH, ME-2, WI)
(was: 256-227-55)

Mind the Gap (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(not updated)

Andrea Moro (10/24):
Kerry 277 - Bush 261
(was: 264-274)

MyDD (10/24):
Kerry 251 - Bush 287
(was: 284-254)

My Election Analysis (10/22):
Kerry 277 - Bush 261
(was: 284-254)

National Journal's Hotline (via C-SPAN @ 1:02:00; 10/22):
Kerry 205 - Bush 234 - ?? 99
(was: 205-244-89)

New York Times (10/24):
Kerry 225 - Bush 213 - ?? 100
(no change)

Political Oddsmaker (10/24):
Kerry 238 - Bush 279 - ?? 21
(was: 243-279-16)

Pollbooth (10/21 - not updated since last survey)
Kerry 243 - Bush 291 - ?? 4 (NH)
(not updated)

(Note: Updated 10/25, too late for survey:
Kerry 238 - Bush 276 - ?? 24 [OH, NH])

Pollkatz (10/23):
Kerry 287 - Bush 251
(no change)

President Elect 2004 (10/24):
Kerry 272 - Bush 266
(was: 238-300)

Race2004 (10/24):

Rasmussen (10/24):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(was: 190-222-126)

Real Clear Politics (10/24):
Kerry 211 - Bush 234 - ?? 93
(was: 189-227-122)

Red State Blue State (10/22):
Kerry 227 - Bush 311
(was: 237-301)

Larry Sabato (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(not updated)

(Note: Updated on 10/26, too late for survey:
Kerry 262 - Bush 276.)

Samboni's State-by-State (10/24):
Kerry 280 - Bush 231 - ?? 27 (FL)
(was: 290-231-17)

Alcon San Croix (10/24):
Kerry 280 - Bush 253 - ?? 5 (NH, ME-2)
(was: 276-255-7)

Benjamin Schak (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(not updated)

Search The Links (10/20 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 267 - Bush 234 - ?? 37 (FL, WI)
(not updated)

(Note: Updated 10/25, too late for survey:
Kerry 234 - Bush 248 - ?? 56 [FL, NM, NH, OH])

Robert Silvey (10/21 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 277 - Bush 261
(not updated)

Slate (10/24):
Kerry 267 - Bush 271
(no change)

Strategisphere (10/18 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 273 - Bush 265
(not updated)

Tradesports/intrade (10/24):

(Note: For further information on converting Tradesports data see here and here.)

Tripias (10/24):
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(was: 279-259)

TruthIsAll (10/24):
Kerry 316 - Bush 222
(was: 312-226)

Sam Wang's Meta-Analysis (10/24):
Kerry 311 - Bush 227
(no change)

Washington Dispatch (10/24):
Kerry 230 - Bush 308
(was: 258-280)

Wayne in Missouri (10/22):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(was: 238-300)

David Wissing (10/24):
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(was: 230-308)

Young Conservatives (10/20 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 214 - Bush 295 - ?? 29 (IA, MN, NM, OR)
(not updated)

Zogby/WSJ (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(not updated)

2.004k.com (10/24):
Kerry 253 - Bush 242 - ?? 42 (AR, FL, WI)
(was: 257-261-20)


STATS

63 PROJECTIONS FROM 58 SITES
(was: 66 from 61 - 3 dropped, 0 restored, 0 new, 0 news reports)

Kerry winning: 20 (was: 21)
Kerry ahead: 6 (4)

Tied: 1 (0)

Bush winning: 24 (24)
Bush ahead: 12 (17)
        gained      lost     no change
Kerry 14
(24) 24 (20) 10 (13)
Bush 18 (20) 18 (22) 12 (15)
?? 13 (8) 6 (16) 1 (4)

Site no change: 7 (12)
Site not updated: 15 (7)

New: 0 (2)
News reports: 0 (2)

Restored: 0 (2)
Dropped: 3 (0)


AVERAGES
MEAN: Kerry 253 - Bush 256 - ?? 29
(was: 251-253-34)

MEDIAN: Kerry 253 - Bush 261 - (remainder: 24)
(was: 255-256-27)

MODE: Kerry 247 [n=4] - Bush 222 [n=8] - (remainder: 69)
(was: 247-222-69)

JOINT MODE: Kerry 207 - Bush 222 [n=4] - (remainder: 89)
(was: 264-274)

Sites without unassigned states
MEAN: Kerry 269 - Bush 269
(was: 272-266)

MEDIAN: Kerry 268 - Bush 270
(was: 269.5-268.5)

(For what "mean", "median" and "mode" are, see "Notes" below.)

RANGE
Kerry max: 316 (316)
Kerry min: 153 (153)

Bush max: 311 (308)
Bush min: 158 (168)


SUMMARY

The dead heat continues.

By the evidence of the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, Bush and Kerry are still essentially tied, with perhaps a slight edge to Bush -- Bush has 256 to 261 votes, while Kerry has 253.

(Judging by the average of sites without unassigned states makes the tie even clearer: Bush has 269 to 270 votes, and Kerry has 268 to 269.)

Bush managed to improve his position a little from the last survey 3 days ago (by 3 to 5 votes), while Kerry remained about the same, leaving Bush with a 3 to 8 vote advantage on Kerry, not enough to be considered significant.

Bush is ahead on sites declaring him the winner (24 to 20), sites declaring him ahead (12 to 6) and sites declaring him winning or ahead (36 to 26), all just about the same or slightly less than in the last survey.






UPDATES & CORRECTIONS

  • For a few days after I publish the survey, I'll make corrections, note updates, and add new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site when appropriate.

  • Expected publishing schedule: Wednesday 27 October, Saturday 30 October (in the a.m.), and possibly Monday 1 November (from London).

  • (10/25) I had dropped the Business Week analysis because I couldn't find an update, but I finally ran across it, dated 10/22, so I restored it to the survey and updated the stats and summary.

  • (10/25) A new site, Ramblings on Uncertainty by a blogger named "risk_analyst" has Kerry 279 - Bush 259 as of 10/25. I'll be adding this site to the next iteration of the survey, scheduled for Wednesday (probably late night).

  • (10/25) Andrea Moro has added calculations using Real Clear Politics and Tradesports data to her site, joining her original calculations based on 2.004k.com data.

  • (10/25) I've noted underneath sites that weren't updated this iteration which ones have now updated (Larry Allen, Election Projection, Federal Review, Hardball Horserace, Pollbooth, Larry Sabato, Search The Links). The new figures will be used for the next survey (unless they're updated again).

  • (10/25) In between iterations of the survey, I visit many of the sites on it to see what's going on, and I've lately starting keeping a running tally of their figures. Right now (as of about 3:30am Eastern on Monday-Tuesday overnight) it seems to indicate a bit of slippage for Kerry, with 251-253 votes (down from 253), while Bush stayed about the same, with 256-260 (from 256-261). Please note that these informal averages do not include updated figures from all the sites on the survey.

  • (10/26) Another informal walk-thru of most of the sites (about 2am, Tues-Wed) shows Kerry picking up a small number of votes, and Bush staying the same, but also staying ahead: Kerry 255 - Bush 256 to 259.


PREVIOUS SURVEYS

21-Oct / 18-Oct / 11-Oct / 4-Oct / 27-Sept / 19-Sept / 13-Sept / 6-Sept / 29-Aug / 22-Aug / 15-Aug / 7-Aug / 1-Aug / 25-July / 20-July / 6-July / 25-June


NOTES

From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.

I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.

My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.

Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. Two weeks has been the allowance for keeping a "stagnant" site in the survey, but that changed to 10 days begining with this iteration. This will tighten to one week and then, just before the election, I may choose to make it even more restrictive.

One-time Electoral College analysis articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single iteration of the survey (or one week, if I ever start doing it more often than once a week), unless replaced by a new article.

As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral
College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.

Averages

  • "Mean" is what is colloquially called "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.

  • "Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.

  • "Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times. The "n=" number indicates how many times the number listed appears.

  • "Joint Mode" is the combination of Kerry and Bush counts which appears most frequently in the survey. The "n=" number indicates how many times it appears.


A note on my own numbers

I want to make it clear, just in case it isn't already, that the numbers I publish here under my own name (Ed Fitzgerald) are the result of my own methodology, and are not in any way connected with the results of this survey, except that they constitute a single pair of data points in it. That is, neither my current estimation of the system's status, nor my prediction about its final state on Election Day, are meant to illustrate the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, which can be found in the "Summary" section above and the graphs connected to it.


NOT INCLUDED

The following site which appeared in the previous edition of the survey were removed, for the reasons indicated:

Bloomberg (10/20):
Kerry 171 - Bush 168 - ?? 199
(one-time news report)

SF Chronicle (10/15):
Kerry 179 - Bush 202 - ?? 157
(one-time news report)

Washington Times (10/17):
Kerry 203 - Bush 254 - ?? 81
(one-time news report)


A list of sites removed in previous weeks is here

Ed Fitzgerald | 10/24/2004 11:59:00 PM | | | del.icio.us | GO: TOP OF HOME PAGE

 

Michigan's OK

On Swing State Project, DavidNYC passes along a NYT report about a Bush surge in Michigan, and wonders if anyone sees any signs of it.

Well, I certainly don't. I long ago decided that Michigan was solid for Kerry, and stopped worrying about it:



Looks good to me. I suspect we're seeing a reporter pick up Bush spin put out for the purposes of misdirecting the Kerry campaign.

Ed Fitzgerald | 10/24/2004 03:26:00 AM | | | del.icio.us | GO: TOP OF HOME PAGE







by

Ed Fitzgerald

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Bullshit, trolling, unthinking knee-jerk dogmatism and the drivel of idiots will be ruthlessly deleted and the posters banned.

Entertaining, interesting, intelligent, informed and informative comments will always be welcome, even when I disagree with them.

I am the sole judge of which of these qualities pertains.


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I correct typos and other simple errors of grammar, syntax, style and presentation in my posts after the fact without necessarily posting notification of the change.

Substantive textual changes, especially reversals or major corrections, will be noted in an "Update" or a footnote.

Also, illustrations may be added to entries after their initial publication.
the story so far
unfutz: toiling in almost complete obscurity for almost 1500 days
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If you read unfutz at least once a week, without fail, your teeth will be whiter and your love life more satisfying.

If you read it daily, I will come to your house, kiss you on the forehead, bathe your feet, and cook pancakes for you, with yummy syrup and everything.

(You might want to keep a watch on me, though, just to avoid the syrup ending up on your feet and the pancakes on your forehead.)

Finally, on a more mundane level, since I don't believe that anyone actually reads this stuff, I make this offer: I'll give five bucks to the first person who contacts me and asks for it -- and, believe me, right now five bucks might as well be five hundred, so this is no trivial offer.

original content
© 2003-2008
Ed Fitzgerald

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