I returned from the boondocks (very lovely boondocks indeed, near the Catskill Mountains in upstate NY, but anyplace without fast Internet access is a drag by definition if you're trying to keep up with something like a fast-moving election) to my home in NYC only to find that my last survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast / scoreboard / map sites has passed its sell-by date, so I went to the well once again to see what that trackers are saying.
Larry Allen (9/17) Kerry 222 - Bush 279 - ?? 37 (CO, NV, PA) (was: 254-233-51)
(Note: Provoked by the 9/20 Zogby results, my own numbers have changed to 291-247 -- due to WI & PA flipping from Bush to Kerry -- but I have not included this in the totals below. Next week's survey will reflect any changes that come about due to the Zogby results, and other new poll results.)
Matthew Hubbard (9/18): Kerry 222 - Bush 280 - ?? 36 (CO, FL) (was: 259-243-36)
Human Events (9/17 - news report): Kerry 211 - Bush 327 (new to survey)
LA Times (9/20): Kerry 146 - Bush 180 - ?? 212 (was: 146-168-224)
Leip Atlas (500 "most recent" user predictions; 9/19):
MEDIAN: Kerry 221 - Bush 291 (remainder: 26) (was: 254-259-25)
MODE: Kerry 254 - Bush 284 (was: 254-233-51)
"Mean" is what we usually call "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
"Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
"Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times.
RANGE Kerry max: 297 (311) Kerry min: 146 (146)
Bush max: 341 (316) Bush min: 180 (166)
If the results of last week's survey were somewhat difficult to interpret, this week is entirely different, and the results are abundantly clear. Bush has overtaken Kerry, and now sits just about where Kerry was a month ago. The trackers are practically unanimous in declaring Bush as having enough electoral votes to win: 40 of 47 sites have him winning, with another 4 showing him in the lead; on the other hand, only two sites have Kerry winning (one of them is Zogby/WSJ), and one other shows a Kerry lead.
At the moment, Bush has 291 to 293 votes, while Kerry has 221 to 224.
Since I'm spending the bulk of the week in a place with poor Internet access, I really can't update the survey as I usually do in the days after I post it. I'll do what I can on Monday night and Tuesday morning to make sure everything is up to date -- including the latest Rasmussen and Zogby numbers (note: which I have now done) -- but any updates after that will have to wait until the next iteration a week from now.
Due to a complete oversight on my part, in the first couple of publications of this post I forgot to include a new site, the proprietor of which is Alcon San Croix, who describes himself in this way: "I am a 14-year-old student from Tacoma, Washington. I am a progressive Democrat, although certainly not a partisan hack." I have now included his site, with my apologies for the unintended slight.
Although I have included a note to my own projection to indicate how it has changed as a result of the new Zogby numbers, I haven't included the new numbers in the totals, nor do I intend to update all the sites to reflect any changes provoked by Zogby. We will see what those changes are in the next survey, which I should be able to do in one week, on Sunday 9/26 - Monday 9/27.
From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.
I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.
My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.
Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. Right now, until around the end of September, I'll keep a "stagnant" site in the survey for about 3 weeks. For the first half of October that will tighten up to 2 weeks. From the middle of October until the election, it'll be a week at most.
One-time Electoral College analysis articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single interation of the survey, unless they are replaced by a new article.
As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.
The following sites have been removed for the reasons indicated:
hostile to science
lacking in empathy
lacking in public spirit
out of control
Thanks to: Breeze, Chuck, Ivan Raikov, Kaiju, Kathy, Roger, Shirley, S.M. Dixon
i've got a little list...
Steven Abrams (Kansas BofE)
Howard Fieldstead Ahmanson
Roger Ailes (FNC)
Alan Bonsell (Dover BofE)
Bill Buckingham (Dover BofE)
George W. Bush
Bruce Chapman (DI)
The Coors Family
William A. Dembski
Leonard Downie (WaPo)
John Gibson (FNC)
Fred Hiatt (WaPo)
James F. Inhofe
Philip E. Johnson
by Joel Pelletier
(click on image for more info)
Stephen C. Meyer (DI)
Judith Miller (ex-NYT)
Sun Myung Moon
Elspeth Reeve (TNR)
Martin Peretz (TNR)
Richard Mellon Scaife
Susan Schmidt (WaPo)
John Solomon (WaPo)
Richard Thompson (TMLC)
Bob Woodward (WaPo)
All the fine sites I've
Be sure to visit them all!!
Arthur C. Clarke
Daniel C. Dennett
Philip K. Dick
Stephen Jay Gould
"The Harder They Come"
Ursula K. LeGuin
The Marx Brothers
Michael C. Penta
Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger
"The Red Shoes"
"Singin' in the Rain"
Talking Heads/David Byrne
Hunter S. Thompson
"2001: A Space Odyssey"
If you read unfutz at least once a week, without fail, your teeth will be whiter and your love life more satisfying.
If you read it daily, I will come to your house, kiss you on the forehead, bathe your feet, and cook pancakes for you, with yummy syrup and everything.
(You might want to keep a watch on me, though, just to avoid the syrup ending up on your feet and the pancakes on your forehead.)
Finally, on a more mundane level, since I don't believe that anyone actually reads this stuff, I make this offer: I'll give five bucks to the first person who contacts me and asks for it -- and, believe me, right now five bucks might as well be five hundred, so this is no trivial offer.