(Note: Updated 10/25, too late for survey:
Kerry 247 - Bush 227 - ?? 64 [FL, IA, OH, WI])

AP (10/23):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(was: 217-222-99)

Chris Bowers (10/24):
Kerry 291 - Bush 247
(was: 316-222)

Business Week (10/22):
Kerry 242 - Bush 234 - ?? 62 (FL, OH, NM, WI)
(was: 242-227-69)

Brian Calhoun (10/24):
Kerry 242 - Bush 296
(was: 247-291)

CBS (10/24):
Kerry 217 - Bush 222 - ?? 99
(no change)

CNN (10/22):
Kerry 261 - Bush 277
(no change)

Coldhearted Truth (10/23):
Kerry 257 - Bush 281
(was: 247-291)

Charlie Cook (10/21 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(not updated)

Dales' EC Breakdown (10/24):
Kerry 244 - Bush 249 - ?? 45 (FL, HI, MN, NH)
(was: 243-264-31)

DC's Political Report (10/23):
Kerry 203 - Bush 200 - ?? 135
(was: 206-236-96)

dc2 electoral (10/22):
Kerry 276 - Bush 262
(was: 263-275)

Mark Durrenberger (10/24):
Kerry 304 - Bush 234
(was: 311-227)

Election Projection (10/17 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(not updated)

(Note: Updated 10/24, too late for survey:
Kerry 242 - Bush 296)

Electoral Expectations (10/25):
Kerry 268 - Bush 270
(was: 264-273)

Electoral-vote.com (10/24):

• current status:
  Kerry 253 - Bush 254 - ?? 31 (FL, HI)
  (was: 271-257-10)
  
  
• election day prediction:
  Kerry 284 - Bush 244 - ?? 10 (MN)
  (was: 301-237)

Federal Review (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(not updated)

(Note: Updated 10/25, too late for survey:
Kerry 242 - Bush 296.)

First in the Nation (10/25):
Kerry 263 - Bush 275
(was: 254-284)

Ed Fitzgerald (10/24):
Kerry 293 - Bush 245
(was: 266-272)

(Note: Updated on 10/27 to Kerry 300 - Bush 238. That's is my estimation of the current status. My Election Day prediction -- as of 10/23 and due for an update soon -- is Kerry 294 - Bush 244. Also, see "Notes" below.)

The Groundhog (George Axiotakis) (10/22):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(was: 301-237)

Hardball Horserace (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(not updated)

(Note: Updated 10/25, too late for survey:
no change.)

Matthew Hubbard (10/23):
Kerry 270 - Bush 268
(277-227-34)

LA Times (10/24):
Kerry 153 - Bush 158 - ?? 227
(was: 153-173-212)

Dave Leip's Atlas (500 "most recent" user predictions):

• state by state medians (10/24)
  Kerry 267 - Bush 271
  (was: 284-254)
  
  
• overall medians (10/24)
  Kerry 269 - Bush 269 [tie]
  (was: 272-266)
  
  
• state polls aggregate (10/23)
  Kerry 224 - Bush 239 - ?? 75
  (was: 196-222-120)

mattb25 (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 316 - Bush 222
(not updated)

E. Alan Meece (10/23):
Kerry 246 - Bush 227 - ?? 65 (FL, IA, OH, ME-2, WI)
(was: 256-227-55)

Mind the Gap (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(not updated)

Andrea Moro (10/24):
Kerry 277 - Bush 261
(was: 264-274)

MyDD (10/24):
Kerry 251 - Bush 287
(was: 284-254)

My Election Analysis (10/22):
Kerry 277 - Bush 261
(was: 284-254)

National Journal's Hotline (via C-SPAN @ 1:02:00; 10/22):
Kerry 205 - Bush 234 - ?? 99
(was: 205-244-89)

New York Times (10/24):
Kerry 225 - Bush 213 - ?? 100
(no change)

Political Oddsmaker (10/24):
Kerry 238 - Bush 279 - ?? 21
(was: 243-279-16)

Pollbooth (10/21 - not updated since last survey)
Kerry 243 - Bush 291 - ?? 4 (NH)
(not updated)

(Note: Updated 10/25, too late for survey:
Kerry 238 - Bush 276 - ?? 24 [OH, NH])

Pollkatz (10/23):
Kerry 287 - Bush 251
(no change)

President Elect 2004 (10/24):
Kerry 272 - Bush 266
(was: 238-300)

Race2004 (10/24):

• current poll status
  Kerry 175 - Bush 216 - ?? 147
  (was: 181-182-175)
  
  
• election held today
  Kerry 300 - Bush 238
  (was: 301-237)

Rasmussen (10/24):
Kerry 207 - Bush 222 - ?? 109
(was: 190-222-126)

Real Clear Politics (10/24):
Kerry 211 - Bush 234 - ?? 93
(was: 189-227-122)

Red State Blue State (10/22):
Kerry 227 - Bush 311
(was: 237-301)

Larry Sabato (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 254 - Bush 284
(not updated)

(Note: Updated on 10/26, too late for survey:
Kerry 262 - Bush 276.)

Samboni's State-by-State (10/24):
Kerry 280 - Bush 231 - ?? 27 (FL)
(was: 290-231-17)

Alcon San Croix (10/24):
Kerry 280 - Bush 253 - ?? 5 (NH, ME-2)
(was: 276-255-7)

Benjamin Schak (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(not updated)

Search The Links (10/20 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 267 - Bush 234 - ?? 37 (FL, WI)
(not updated)

(Note: Updated 10/25, too late for survey:
Kerry 234 - Bush 248 - ?? 56 [FL, NM, NH, OH])

Robert Silvey (10/21 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 277 - Bush 261
(not updated)

Slate (10/24):
Kerry 267 - Bush 271
(no change)

Strategisphere (10/18 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 273 - Bush 265
(not updated)

Tradesports/intrade (10/24):

• Fitzgerald conversion [50 = toss-up]
  Kerry 247 - Bush 291
  (no change)
  
  
• Geekmedia conversion [45-55 = toss-up]
  Kerry 243 - Bush 271 - ?? 24 (NH, OH)
  (was: 247-274-17)

(Note: For further information on converting Tradesports data see here and here.)

Tripias (10/24):
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(was: 279-259)

TruthIsAll (10/24):
Kerry 316 - Bush 222
(was: 312-226)

Sam Wang's Meta-Analysis (10/24):
Kerry 311 - Bush 227
(no change)

Washington Dispatch (10/24):
Kerry 230 - Bush 308
(was: 258-280)

Wayne in Missouri (10/22):
Kerry 243 - Bush 295
(was: 238-300)

David Wissing (10/24):
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
(was: 230-308)

Young Conservatives (10/20 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 214 - Bush 295 - ?? 29 (IA, MN, NM, OR)
(not updated)

Zogby/WSJ (10/19 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 264 - Bush 274
(not updated)

2.004k.com (10/24):
Kerry 253 - Bush 242 - ?? 42 (AR, FL, WI)
(was: 257-261-20)


STATS

63 PROJECTIONS FROM 58 SITES
(was: 66 from 61 - 3 dropped, 0 restored, 0 new, 0 news reports)

Kerry winning: 20 (was: 21)
Kerry ahead: 6 (4)

Tied: 1 (0)

Bush winning: 24 (24)
Bush ahead: 12 (17)

        gained      lost     no change
Kerry   14 (24)    24 (20)    10 (13)
Bush    18 (20)    18 (22)    12 (15)
??      13  (8)     6 (16)     1 (4)

Site no change: 7 (12)
Site not updated: 15 (7)

New: 0 (2)
News reports: 0 (2)

Restored: 0 (2)
Dropped: 3 (0)


AVERAGES
MEAN: Kerry 253 - Bush 256 - ?? 29
(was: 251-253-34)

MEDIAN: Kerry 253 - Bush 261 - (remainder: 24)
(was: 255-256-27)

MODE: Kerry 247 [n=4] - Bush 222 [n=8] - (remainder: 69)
(was: 247-222-69)

JOINT MODE: Kerry 207 - Bush 222 [n=4] - (remainder: 89)
(was: 264-274)

Sites without unassigned states
MEAN: Kerry 269 - Bush 269
(was: 272-266)

MEDIAN: Kerry 268 - Bush 270
(was: 269.5-268.5)

(For what "mean", "median" and "mode" are, see "Notes" below.)

RANGE
Kerry max: 316 (316)
Kerry min: 153 (153)

Bush max: 311 (308)
Bush min: 158 (168)

SUMMARY

The dead heat continues.

By the evidence of the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, Bush and Kerry are still essentially tied, with perhaps a slight edge to Bush -- Bush has 256 to 261 votes, while Kerry has 253.

(Judging by the average of sites without unassigned states makes the tie even clearer: Bush has 269 to 270 votes, and Kerry has 268 to 269.)

Bush managed to improve his position a little from the last survey 3 days ago (by 3 to 5 votes), while Kerry remained about the same, leaving Bush with a 3 to 8 vote advantage on Kerry, not enough to be considered significant.

Bush is ahead on sites declaring him the winner (24 to 20), sites declaring him ahead (12 to 6) and sites declaring him winning or ahead (36 to 26), all just about the same or slightly less than in the last survey.






UPDATES & CORRECTIONS

• For a few days after I publish the survey, I'll make corrections, note updates, and add new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site when appropriate.
  
  
• Expected publishing schedule: Wednesday 27 October, Saturday 30 October (in the a.m.), and possibly Monday 1 November (from London).
  
  
• (10/25) I had dropped the Business Week analysis because I couldn't find an update, but I finally ran across it, dated 10/22, so I restored it to the survey and updated the stats and summary.
  
  
• (10/25) A new site, Ramblings on Uncertainty by a blogger named "risk_analyst" has Kerry 279 - Bush 259 as of 10/25. I'll be adding this site to the next iteration of the survey, scheduled for Wednesday (probably late night).
  
  
• (10/25) Andrea Moro has added calculations using Real Clear Politics and Tradesports data to her site, joining her original calculations based on 2.004k.com data.
  
  
• (10/25) I've noted underneath sites that weren't updated this iteration which ones have now updated (Larry Allen, Election Projection, Federal Review, Hardball Horserace, Pollbooth, Larry Sabato, Search The Links). The new figures will be used for the next survey (unless they're updated again).
  
  
• (10/25) In between iterations of the survey, I visit many of the sites on it to see what's going on, and I've lately starting keeping a running tally of their figures. Right now (as of about 3:30am Eastern on Monday-Tuesday overnight) it seems to indicate a bit of slippage for Kerry, with 251-253 votes (down from 253), while Bush stayed about the same, with 256-260 (from 256-261). Please note that these informal averages do not include updated figures from all the sites on the survey.
  
  
• (10/26) Another informal walk-thru of most of the sites (about 2am, Tues-Wed) shows Kerry picking up a small number of votes, and Bush staying the same, but also staying ahead: Kerry 255 - Bush 256 to 259.

PREVIOUS SURVEYS

21-Oct / 18-Oct / 11-Oct / 4-Oct / 27-Sept / 19-Sept / 13-Sept / 6-Sept / 29-Aug / 22-Aug / 15-Aug / 7-Aug / 1-Aug / 25-July / 20-July / 6-July / 25-June


NOTES

From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.

I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.

My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.

Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. Two weeks has been the allowance for keeping a "stagnant" site in the survey, but that changed to 10 days begining with this iteration. This will tighten to one week and then, just before the election, I may choose to make it even more restrictive.

One-time Electoral College analysis articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single iteration of the survey (or one week, if I ever start doing it more often than once a week), unless replaced by a new article.

As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral
College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.

Averages

• "Mean" is what is colloquially called "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
  
  
• "Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
  
  
• "Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times. The "n=" number indicates how many times the number listed appears.
  
  
• "Joint Mode" is the combination of Kerry and Bush counts which appears most frequently in the survey. The "n=" number indicates how many times it appears.

A note on my own numbers

I want to make it clear, just in case it isn't already, that the numbers I publish here under my own name (Ed Fitzgerald) are the result of my own methodology, and are not in any way connected with the results of this survey, except that they constitute a single pair of data points in it. That is, neither my current estimation of the system's status, nor my prediction about its final state on Election Day, are meant to illustrate the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, which can be found in the "Summary" section above and the graphs connected to it.


NOT INCLUDED

The following site which appeared in the previous edition of the survey were removed, for the reasons indicated:

Bloomberg (10/20):
Kerry 171 - Bush 168 - ?? 199
(one-time news report)

SF Chronicle (10/15):
Kerry 179 - Bush 202 - ?? 157
(one-time news report)

Washington Times (10/17):
Kerry 203 - Bush 254 - ?? 81
(one-time news report)


A list of sites removed in previous weeks is here