(Note: Updated on 10/27 to Kerry 300 - Bush 238. That's is my estimation of the current status. My Election Day prediction -- as of 10/23 and due for an update soon -- is Kerry 294 - Bush 244. Also, see "Notes" below.)
Sites without unassigned states MEAN: Kerry 269 - Bush 269 (was: 272-266)
MEDIAN: Kerry 268 - Bush 270 (was: 269.5-268.5)
(For what "mean", "median" and "mode" are, see "Notes" below.)
RANGE Kerry max: 316 (316) Kerry min: 153 (153)
Bush max: 311 (308) Bush min: 158 (168)
The dead heat continues.
By the evidence of the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, Bush and Kerry are still essentially tied, with perhaps a slight edge to Bush -- Bush has 256 to 261 votes, while Kerry has 253.
(Judging by the average of sites without unassigned states makes the tie even clearer: Bush has 269 to 270 votes, and Kerry has 268 to 269.)
Bush managed to improve his position a little from the last survey 3 days ago (by 3 to 5 votes), while Kerry remained about the same, leaving Bush with a 3 to 8 vote advantage on Kerry, not enough to be considered significant.
Bush is ahead on sites declaring him the winner (24 to 20), sites declaring him ahead (12 to 6) and sites declaring him winning or ahead (36 to 26), all just about the same or slightly less than in the last survey.
UPDATES & CORRECTIONS
For a few days after I publish the survey, I'll make corrections, note updates, and add new sites that come to my attention. I'll note these changes here, and mark the entry for each altered site when appropriate.
Expected publishing schedule: Wednesday 27 October, Saturday 30 October (in the a.m.), and possibly Monday 1 November (from London).
(10/25) I had dropped the Business Week analysis because I couldn't find an update, but I finally ran across it, dated 10/22, so I restored it to the survey and updated the stats and summary.
(10/25) A new site, Ramblings on Uncertainty by a blogger named "risk_analyst" has Kerry 279 - Bush 259 as of 10/25. I'll be adding this site to the next iteration of the survey, scheduled for Wednesday (probably late night).
(10/25) Andrea Moro has added calculations using Real Clear Politics and Tradesports data to her site, joining her original calculations based on 2.004k.com data.
(10/25) In between iterations of the survey, I visit many of the sites on it to see what's going on, and I've lately starting keeping a running tally of their figures. Right now (as of about 3:30am Eastern on Monday-Tuesday overnight) it seems to indicate a bit of slippage for Kerry, with 251-253 votes (down from 253), while Bush stayed about the same, with 256-260 (from 256-261). Please note that these informal averages do not include updated figures from all the sites on the survey.
(10/26) Another informal walk-thru of most of the sites (about 2am, Tues-Wed) shows Kerry picking up a small number of votes, and Bush staying the same, but also staying ahead: Kerry 255 - Bush 256 to 259.
From each website I've taken the most comprehensive set of numbers offered, if possible without a "toss-up" category or other caveats, just Kerry versus Bush. Many of them differentiate between "solid" or "strong", "slightly" or "weak", and "leaning" or "barely" states, but I've combined them all together in order to present numbers which are as comparable as possible.
I encourage everyone to use the links and check each site for the specifics of that site's methodology and presentation.
My convention is that Kerry is listed first and Bush second, bold type indicates a winning candidate (i.e. 270 electoral votes or more), and italics or underlining indicates a leading candidate.
Sites which haven't updated in a while will be temporarily removed from the list until they're freshened. Two weeks has been the allowance for keeping a "stagnant" site in the survey, but that changed to 10 days begining with this iteration. This will tighten to one week and then, just before the election, I may choose to make it even more restrictive.
One-time Electoral College analysis articles from the news media (as opposed to ongoing features) will be included, but only for a single iteration of the survey (or one week, if I ever start doing it more often than once a week), unless replaced by a new article.
As always, if anyone has links for any other sites that regularly track Electoral College status, please feel free to send them my way and I'll be glad to add them to the list. I'm also more than happy to hear from the proprietors of any of the sites surveyed here, should they have any complaints, comments, or suggestions for improvements.
"Mean" is what is colloquially called "average." All items are added up and divided by the number of items.
"Median" is the center point, the middle value in a list. There are as many values larger than the median as there are values that are smaller.
"Mode" is the number in a list which appears the most times. The "n=" number indicates how many times the number listed appears.
"Joint Mode" is the combination of Kerry and Bush counts which appears most frequently in the survey. The "n=" number indicates how many times it appears.
A note on my own numbers
I want to make it clear, just in case it isn't already, that the numbers I publish here under my own name (Ed Fitzgerald) are the result of my own methodology, and are not in any way connected with the results of this survey, except that they constitute a single pair of data points in it. That is, neither my current estimation of the system's status, nor my prediction about its final state on Election Day, are meant to illustrate the collective wisdom of the Electoral College trackers, which can be found in the "Summary" section above and the graphs connected to it.
The following site which appeared in the previous edition of the survey were removed, for the reasons indicated:
hostile to science
lacking in empathy
lacking in public spirit
out of control
Thanks to: Breeze, Chuck, Ivan Raikov, Kaiju, Kathy, Roger, Shirley, S.M. Dixon
i've got a little list...
Steven Abrams (Kansas BofE)
Howard Fieldstead Ahmanson
Roger Ailes (FNC)
Alan Bonsell (Dover BofE)
Bill Buckingham (Dover BofE)
George W. Bush
Bruce Chapman (DI)
The Coors Family
William A. Dembski
Leonard Downie (WaPo)
John Gibson (FNC)
Fred Hiatt (WaPo)
James F. Inhofe
Philip E. Johnson
by Joel Pelletier
(click on image for more info)
Stephen C. Meyer (DI)
Judith Miller (ex-NYT)
Sun Myung Moon
Elspeth Reeve (TNR)
Martin Peretz (TNR)
Richard Mellon Scaife
Susan Schmidt (WaPo)
John Solomon (WaPo)
Richard Thompson (TMLC)
Bob Woodward (WaPo)
All the fine sites I've
Be sure to visit them all!!
Arthur C. Clarke
Daniel C. Dennett
Philip K. Dick
Stephen Jay Gould
"The Harder They Come"
Ursula K. LeGuin
The Marx Brothers
Michael C. Penta
Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger
"The Red Shoes"
"Singin' in the Rain"
Talking Heads/David Byrne
Hunter S. Thompson
"2001: A Space Odyssey"
If you read unfutz at least once a week, without fail, your teeth will be whiter and your love life more satisfying.
If you read it daily, I will come to your house, kiss you on the forehead, bathe your feet, and cook pancakes for you, with yummy syrup and everything.
(You might want to keep a watch on me, though, just to avoid the syrup ending up on your feet and the pancakes on your forehead.)
Finally, on a more mundane level, since I don't believe that anyone actually reads this stuff, I make this offer: I'll give five bucks to the first person who contacts me and asks for it -- and, believe me, right now five bucks might as well be five hundred, so this is no trivial offer.