After last night's rant about Strategic Vision's polling (see below), and prompted by comments on the subject both here and on Swing State Project, I decided to take the closer look at SV results that was suggested.
I didn't have time for a particularly sophisticated analysis, so I simply looked at the last month of polling results in a number of battleground states, using the data at 2.400k.com, my preferred repository of state polling data.
Here's what I found:
Florida Between 8/2 and 8/28, Strategic Vision did three polls in Florida. The average result was Bush 47.3-Kerry 46, or a 1.3 point advantage for Bush. Other polling outfits did 6 polls in the same time period, which averaged Bush 45.3 - Kerry 46.8, or a 1.5 advantage for Kerry. Net result: Bush does 2.8 points better in Strategic Vision polls.
Iowa Polling period: 7/31 - 8/28
Strategic Vision: 2 polls; B46.5-K47.5; Kerry +1
Others: 2 polls; B45-K49; Kerry +4
Advantage to Bush of Strategic Vision results: +3
Michigan Polling period: 7/30 - 8/28
Strategic Vision: 3 polls; B42-K46; Kerry +4
Others: 5 polls; B43.6-K49.4; Kerry +5.8
Advantage to Bush of Strategic Vision results: +1.8
Ohio Polling period: 7/31 - 8/28
Strategic Vision: 2 polls; B48.5-K43; Bush +5.5
Others: 6 polls; B45.5-K47.3; Kerry +1.8
Advantage to Bush of Strategic Vision results: +7.3
Pennsylvania Polling period: 7/31 - 8/28
Strategic Vision: 3 polls; B44.6-K47; Kerry +2.4
Others: 6 polls; B42.6-K48.5; Kerry +5.9
Advantage to Bush of Strategic Vision results: +3.5
Washington Polling period: 7/31 - 8/26
Strategic Vision: 2 polls; B42.5-K48.5; Kerry +6
Others: 4 polls; B43-K50.25; Kerry +7.25
Advantage to Bush of Strategic Vision results: +1.25
Wisconsin Polling period: 7/30 - 8/28
Strategic Vision: 3 polls; B46.7-K46.3; Bush +0.4
Others: 3 polls; B47-K45.3; Bush +2.3
Advantage to Bush of Strategic Vision results: -1.9
So in six of the seven states I looked at, Bush received a distinct advantage from Strategic Vision's results as compared to the results of other (non-partisan) pollsters. The average advantage to Bush was over 2 1/2 points, which is pretty significant.
Obviously, this is not proof of anything except that Bush generally does better in polls done by Strategic Vision than he does in polls by other polling organizations.
Update: In comments, "Chris" asks if I've done the same thing with polls by ARG (I believe the clear implication is that ARG will show a pro-Kerry bias, a claim I've heard from the right before). The problem is that ARG doesn't put out polls with the sheer volume that Strategic Vision does (in fact no one puts out as many battleground polls as SV does), so it's harder to do the same kind of comparison -- but I managed to do it in three states:
The sample size is too small to be definitive, but so far as I can see there's no obvious Kerry bias here.
What about the national polls, is ARG out of line? Their latest result was for 8/30-9/1 -- let's compare it to one poll that came right after it and 7 that came in the week before it:
ARG ECONMST ABC/WP ICR TIME FOX ECONMST GALLUP NBC/WSJ
8/30-9/1 8/31-9/2 8/26-29 8/25-29 8/24-26 8/24-25 8/23-25 8/23-25 8/23-25
RV 3-way K+1 Tie B+1 K+2.7 K+3 Tie B+2
RV 2-way K+2 B+1 K+1
LV 3-way Tie K+1 Tie B+2 K+1 K+4 K+3
LV 2-way B+1 Tie K+1 K+2
Adults 3 K+1 K+1
Adults 2 K+1
I'm no expert, but ARG's results don't seem particularly skewed to me.
BTW, this has got to be something of a last hurrah for me in doing stuff like this. Next week I start work on a new project, and it's going to be hard enough for me to find the time to keep the electoral college survey up to date (but I will find the time for that) and do some regular posting, I won't have the kind of free time that allows me to spontaneously sit down for a few hours and crunch numbers on a whim.
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