Thursday, February 19, 2004
 

Getting an inkling before the fact

Before the results were in in Wisconsin, Wonkette wrote:

We love it when TV talking heads pretend they haven't seen exit polls. Chris Matthews and company keep referring to what might happen after Wisconsin ends up a "close two-man race," and then backpedaling, "I mean, if that's what happens."

As I've written before, you can pretty much tell what the exit polls have told the networks by how they frame their coverage, which is why withholding the data from the public for their own good is something of a crock. I mean, it's only human that if I have information that says that candidate X is going to cream candidate Y, but I can't talk about it, I'm not going to precede the release of that information with teasers suggesting that candidate Y is going to win in an upset, because doing sowould make me look ridiculous when the real stuff comes out. Instead, I'm going to frame my coverage in the way that makes me look as smart and as knowledgeable as possible without actually giving anything away. That's just human nature, and smart business sense.

It's a little like old-style Kremlinology, determining who is in favor and who's on the outs by who's standing next to whom at the May Day parade, but watching the news channels in the hours before the polls close can definitely give you a strong inkling about what's going to happen. (Given what Wonkette wrote about Chris Matthews' inability to hold it in, I guess I'll have to hold my nose and watch some more of MSNBC the next time.)

Postscript: Of course, the exit polls have been available in various places, Slate and National Review Online, and then reposted on the blogs, but usually they only give percentages and not analysis of the whys and wherefores, which you can sniff out by watching how the news channels are setting up to report the results.

Ed Fitzgerald | 2/19/2004 01:29:00 PM | | | del.icio.us | GO: TOP OF HOME PAGE







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