Sunday, February 08, 2004
 

Some polls we really should be seeing

The polls which show John Kerry running neck-and-neck with George Bush, or even ahead of him, are all very good and encouraging, but they really are pretty irrelevant. Not just because there's a long way to go before the election, and Bush and Rove haven't even started spending the $100 million dollars or more they've got in their warchest (nor have they focused their attention exclusively on Kerry yet, which they will if he eventually claims the Democratic nomination or even before if it's clear he'll be the candidate), but also because although those polls might or might not accurately predict the national popular vote in 2004, we don't actually elect a President in this country on that basis at all, as we were reminded all too sadly in 2000, when Gore won the popular vote.

What would be much more interesting to see, and I wonder if anyone has done this yet, is how Kerry or the other Democratic candidates stack up against Bush in the 10 or so "battleground states" in which the outcome of the Electoral College vote will probably be determined? If we had the results of those polls, we might actually know something about Kerry's chances which it would be useful to know.

Incidentally, I've referred in another post to the possibility that the meme of Kerry's "electability", which seems, according to media reports, to be the strongest factor inducing people to vote for him, may well be a kind of mass illusion. People think Kerry is electable, so they vote for him, which makes other people think he's electable and so on. Which is all well and good, and would work perfectly for Kerry to get elected if Kerry's electability was any kind of factor in the general election, which it really can't be, by simple logic. (Those for whom the electability of the Democratic candidate is paramount are those who will vote for the Democratic candidate anyway, pretty much whoever it is and in spite of any lack of their "electability", but the election won't be decided by those votes, obviously.)

In a post I'd previous overlooked, Publius does some interesting analysis related to my "mass illusion" theory, involving the concept of "information cascades." It's worth a look.

Update: David Lubin and Thomas Schaller make the case for Edwards' strength's as a candidate (or as the Democratic Vice Presidential candidate) in a piece on The American Prospect website, employing an argument base primarily on the Electoral College race:

Southern Democrats possess many political assets that appeal to moderate white voters in swing states. People often forget that Bill Clinton would still have won the presidency in both 1992 and 1996 without a single southern electoral vote. But Clinton couldn't have won absent the skills he gained as an Arkansas politician.

The South is more conservative than the rest of the nation, especially on divisive social and racial questions. Successful southern Democrats are unusually savvy at first winning primaries dominated by African American and white liberal voters, then turning around a few months later and winning election among the more conservative electorate in November. In short, they know how to appeal to African Americans -- and, increasingly, Hispanics as well -- without alienating whites. Typically, southern Democrats inoculate themselves against claims that they are too liberal by favoring the death penalty, identifying with gun owners, or both.

As important as the positions that southern Democrats espouse are the language and rhetoric they use to espouse them. They are far more comfortable invoking values like faith and patriotism than coastal or northeastern Democrats are. Even if their abortion-rights positions differ little from their nonsouthern counterparts, southern Dems deftly lament the frequency of abortion along with the rise in sexual promiscuity.

In short, the positioning and rhetorical skills that seem to come naturally to southern Democratic politicians make them electable in downballot races in a conservative region that is increasingly hostile to the Democratic Party.

But that doesn't mean those skills are most effectively or efficiently applied to the task of winning electoral college votes in the South. Instead, what Edwards would bring to the presidential ticket is needed help in Rust Belt and border swing states, including Democratic "nail-down" states like Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, and potential "pick-up" states like West Virginia, Ohio, and Missouri.

In short, Edwards is valuable because he can get votes in the "battleground states" which will most likely decide the outcome of the 2004 election.

Ed Fitzgerald | 2/08/2004 03:24:00 AM | | | del.icio.us | GO: TOP OF HOME PAGE







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