CNN is reporting that Kerry is going to set up his VP-vetting mechanism fairly quickly, as he wants to retain the option of announcing his choice early. I'm not certain that's a good idea, as speculation over who his running mate will be is about the only positive news hook the Democrats are going to have until the convention in July, now that the primaries are effectively over. (There will be plenty of negative news hooks, which will be provided by the attacks Rove will launch against Kerry starting almost immediately.) Why give away the suspense?
Of course, the counter to that is that the announcement itself will generate a lot of publicity, and I guess that's true, so it's good for Kerry to keep his options open. I just hope we don't end up with Kerry/Gephardt or some other unexciting combination.
Sen. John Edwards (NC), 4 to 1 (20% chance)
Gov. Bill Richardson (NM), 5 to 1 (16.7% chance)
Gov. Ed Rendell (PA), 10 to 1 (9.1% chance)
Sen. Evan Bayh (IN), 10 to 1 (9.1% chance)
Sen. Bill Nelson (FL), 10 to 1 (9.1% chance)
Gen. Wesley Clark, 12 to 1 (7.7% chance)
Sen. Bob Graham (FL), 12 to 1 (7.7% chance)
U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO), 20 to 1 (4.8% chance)
Kerry/Edwards still seems like the sexiest of these options, and he comes with the advantage that he's just been the beneficiary of a lot of publicity, most of it positive. He won't have to be introduced to the public and have his profile built up, as most of the other choices will.
There's about 20 weeks until the Democratic convention, so if Kerry is going to announce his choice early, give him a week or two to set up procedures, then 2 to 3 weeks to go through the choices, and I think we might expect something to happen in the next month, or 6 weeks at the outside -- and I'm thinking that the announcement will be Edwards.
(If Bush's attacks are particularly strong or attracting a lot of media time -- or if the media starts in early on Goring Kerry -- perhaps they'd push things up and make an announcement earlier to deflect attention.)
Update: So far I've seen two conservative members of the punditocracy -- Tucker Carlson, the baby-faced bow-tied buffoon on CNN, and Dick Morris, the toe-sniffing turncoat on Fox -- poo-poo Edwards as a running mate, which, of course, leads me to believe that this is just the combination they fear the most. They're pushing Richardson or Clark (which I once saw as not likely, then went through a phase where I thought it made good sense, and now... I dunno). Let's see if the rest of the right-wing commentators pick up on the theme that Edwards would be a "mistake".
A little later Carlson just made me laugh out loud. In response to a caller's question about whether a woman might be considered for the second slot, Tuck just jumped in and said he "couldn't see any reason" that Kerry wouldn't ask Mrs. Clinton to be his running mate. And he kept a straight face as he said it.
I dunno, maybe it's just me, but this election is just too damned important for me to be charmed by silliness like this. Let's be real, people, there's a guy in the White House who's screwing the country and messing up the world and he's got to be removed; this isn't a freaking game.
Update (3/4): On TNR's Campaign Journal, Ryan Lizza presents the three basic models for v.p. selection, and the men who fill the bill: Compensation (John Edwards), Magnification (Clark) and Electoral (Graham or Gephardt). (She adds Nelson in another entry.)
Then there's the theory that the v.p. candidate will come out of nowhere, and not be any of the names speculated about. I don't think so, not this year.
hostile to science
lacking in empathy
lacking in public spirit
out of control
Thanks to: Breeze, Chuck, Ivan Raikov, Kaiju, Kathy, Roger, Shirley, S.M. Dixon
i've got a little list...
Steven Abrams (Kansas BofE)
Howard Fieldstead Ahmanson
Roger Ailes (FNC)
Alan Bonsell (Dover BofE)
Bill Buckingham (Dover BofE)
George W. Bush
Bruce Chapman (DI)
The Coors Family
William A. Dembski
Leonard Downie (WaPo)
John Gibson (FNC)
Fred Hiatt (WaPo)
James F. Inhofe
Philip E. Johnson
by Joel Pelletier
(click on image for more info)
Stephen C. Meyer (DI)
Judith Miller (ex-NYT)
Sun Myung Moon
Elspeth Reeve (TNR)
Martin Peretz (TNR)
Richard Mellon Scaife
Susan Schmidt (WaPo)
John Solomon (WaPo)
Richard Thompson (TMLC)
Bob Woodward (WaPo)
All the fine sites I've
Be sure to visit them all!!
Arthur C. Clarke
Daniel C. Dennett
Philip K. Dick
Stephen Jay Gould
"The Harder They Come"
Ursula K. LeGuin
The Marx Brothers
Michael C. Penta
Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger
"The Red Shoes"
"Singin' in the Rain"
Talking Heads/David Byrne
Hunter S. Thompson
"2001: A Space Odyssey"
If you read unfutz at least once a week, without fail, your teeth will be whiter and your love life more satisfying.
If you read it daily, I will come to your house, kiss you on the forehead, bathe your feet, and cook pancakes for you, with yummy syrup and everything.
(You might want to keep a watch on me, though, just to avoid the syrup ending up on your feet and the pancakes on your forehead.)
Finally, on a more mundane level, since I don't believe that anyone actually reads this stuff, I make this offer: I'll give five bucks to the first person who contacts me and asks for it -- and, believe me, right now five bucks might as well be five hundred, so this is no trivial offer.