Tuesday, November 22, 2005
 

What will he do?

Presumably Karl Rove can read the graph of Bush's approval ratings as well as anyone. It shows three significant, if diminishing, spikes: after 9/11, after the invasion of Iraq, and after the capture of Saddam and the Iraqi election. What does that say about what's needed to raise Bush's numbers right now? Obviously, visiting foreign countries (a traditional way for a President to raise his public standing when things aren't going good at home -- a point that was covered by the press when Clinton went abroad, but for some reason appears to have been forgotten now) doesn't work so well with Bush, since almost nobody in the rest of the world likes him, so what other options will Rove come up with?
  1. Invade another country, like, say, Iran, or, possibly, Syria.

    Normally, I think Rove might prefer this, but the plain fact is we can't do this, not until we withdraw from Iraq and allow some time for our strength to be regenerated. Between Iraq and Afghanistan and our other commitments, our military is stretched incredibly thin, and, as much as Rove might like us to just march into Iran or Syria, or wherever, that's not going to be possible. Even bombing Iran, which is more feasible, is probably less of a possibility than it once was, as I assume we've used up a significant portion of our stockpile of armaments. I suppose he could drop some A-bombs, but I'm not sure the public response would be to rally around the Chief, except perhaps to string him up.


  2. Withdraw from Iraq.

    This might actually work. Public sentiment seems to have turned almost 180 degrees, and it's possible that if Bush came up with some face-saving scenario for withdrawing (the equivalent of "declare victory and get out") and, for good measure, in the process, blame the Democrats for his inability to do so earlier (Fox News watchers will believe almost anything, after all), he might actually reap the benefit in a spike in his approval numbers. Bush did show with the withdrawal of the Miers nomination some small capability of understanding that digging in one's heels is not always the best possible policy, but whether he'd be able to do the same thing regarding Iraq is anyone's guess. My guess is probably not. Perhaps if Cheney told him pointblank to do it...


  3. What else?

    So what's left? Some positive news from Iraq would help, but the situation there seems to have moved past our ability to control the news, or to create a positive picture even on a local scale. Capturing bin Laden or Zarqawi or yet another al Qaeda "number 2" would help, but if they could have done that, they'd've done it already, I think. Something surprising and completely out of character, like rejoining the Kyoto convention or giving our approval to the International Criminal Court might merit a bit of a blip, but it's doubtful that enough people would be impressed to cause a spike. Raise the terrorism security level? People have gotten wise to that. Stage a fake terrorist incident? This is what conspiracy buffs fear might happen, and I wouldn't put it past the Bush team to consider it (although I'm not convinced they're so far gone as to actually do it), but I don't think they're capable of pulling it off successfully without being found out, and maybe, on the heels of the Fitzgerald investigation, they might realize the same thing. A treaty with North Korea?

What will Rove do to get Bush's numbers up?

Ed Fitzgerald | 11/22/2005 12:22:00 AM | | | del.icio.us | GO: TOP OF HOME PAGE







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