[click on the graph for the most recent version]

In itself, Foleygate isn't going to drive many people's votes. And even fewer will admit that it has in polls. But I think Foley has provided a collective gut-check moment for the country, when perhaps a critical portion of the country has said, Enough. it's not about Foley. It's really about everything that has come before. But it's allowed people to step back, take in the whole picture and say: No, I'm done.

Update (10/14): Today's graph shows the "Republican scandal" meme disconnecting even more thoroughly from the specifics of the Foley/page/Hastert events as it continues to take off on its own.

Update (10/15): Everything's taken a dive, but whether it's just the weekend and will rebound, or a permanent drop...

Update (10/16): Down, down, down.

Update (10/17): With the weekend over, there's some upward movement, but will it be enough?

Update (10/18): The upward movement continues, with "Republican scandal" still running ahead of the other search terms.

Update (10/19): After some upward zigs, today we've got a downward zag.

Update (10/20): Up, down, up, down, up, with "Republican scandal" continuing to lead the way, and signs of some new life in the "Mark Foley/page" meme, perhaps because of the confirmation from a priest of some sort of hanky-panky when Foley was a teenager. Of course, Foley's personal misbehavior isn't the core of the scandal, whether or not it can be explained or excused -- the real problem is how the Republicans handled it, before and after the public revelations. Cover-up then and whitewash now is the core.

Update (10/21): Things once more plunge downward, which may be the beginning of the end for these memes, somewhat short of reaching Election Day. (Unless, of course, the rumors of another Congressperson being involved with a page turn out to be true.) Looking back at 2004, when I tracked the Bush/AWOL stories using this same technique, I found that that story petered out after 17 days, suggesting that, absent additonal revelations, about 2 - 3 weeks might be a "natural" length for such stories to remain alive.

Update (10/22): Dying embers.

Update (10/23): A few more days like this, and I'll be calling this -- and the only hope for reviving the story is if there are, as rumored, new revelations to come out. Unfortunately, those rumors sound a lot like wishful thinking.