I see discussion about why Bush is trying to get us involved in a war with Iran in which people talk about him being "crazy" or "nuts" a "psychopath." I understand the feeling -- the idea of engaging with Iran just at the time when we're unable to cope with our current engagement with Iraq, is pretty much crazy, in the colloquial sense. But as for the other...
I'm not a psychologist or even well-versed in the subject, but from the evidence I've seen I would disagree that Bush is a psychopath. I think he's probably got serious psychological problems, especially in regard to his relationship with his father, and with his own comfort with his manhood -- it seems to me as if in his mind he's constantly in competition with Poppy, who's always been his protector and savior and has never allowed him to do anything totally on his own, and he's latched on to Cheney as a surrogate father that he follows rather slavishly. (There's a lot less evidence, but if anyone is close to being psychopathic, it would be Cheney and not Bush, but even he is probably just an ultra-authoritarian type.) Bush always seems to me to need to show off his manhood, to display to everyone that he's really a man and not his father's child. The combination of Bush's weaknesses of personality and Cheney's authoritarianism and thirst for revenge (against Democrats who impeached Nixon, against Saddam who turned against us, against Iran who held us hostage) can explain a lot about their choices post-9/11 without speculating on their being psychopaths.
But ultimately that's neither here nor there, really -- the actual reasons (if any) that Bush & Cheney are trying to start a war with Iran are irrelevant, because they're clearly trying to do it, and it's an extremely stupid and dangerous thing to do. Whatever "short, sharp, shock" they're hoping to strike at Iran (presumably air and missile strikes -- I don't think the fear that they'd use nuclear weapons in a first strike over what will inevitably be a flimsy excuse is in the least credible) is not going to simply be absorbed by Iran and that's it. If the history of the Iran/Iraq war, which ran for many years and killed millions, tells us anything, it's that they won't take provocation lightly, they will fight back -- and when they do so, it will not be to challenge us in the arena where we have the greatest advantage, it will be on the ground. They can send a massive army into Iraq and engage us in ground fighting there which we are in no condition to respond to. Not only are we already drastically overextended in Iraq, our troops are tired from being in service too long. We would certainly have the material advantage over a mass Iranian army, but their manpower advantage will negate that, esepcially since they've shown as little compunction about wasting their manpower as the World War I generals on the Western Front did.
That I think, is the great danger from Bush & Cheney's attempt to provoke an attack on Iran -- not a nuclear war, not the sinking of ships, not even the downing of fighters and bombers (although that will happen, I presume), nor any kind of asymmetrical response similar to bin Laden's 9/11 attacks (the Iranians are a country, with all the resources available to it, and will be inclined to respond using those capabilities before it even starts to think "outside the box".) The danger is, I think, a vast increase in the size and scope of the ground war in the region at just the moment when we cannot cope with it, and have our hands full dealing with the Iraqi insurgency. Not only that, but I presume that because of our manpower disadvantage we will try to compensate, as are capabilities encourage us to do, with massive airstrikes against the Iranians, which, in time will shift from purely military targets and will concentrate on the centers of population in an attempt to destroy the country's industrial infrastructure, demoralize the people and bring down the government. That's the pattern of how we fought our wars since World War II, and I think that a response by Iran with mass troops will push our generals to counter with tactics that they're comfortable with, and which, indeed, our armed forces are set up to do.
So, in a phrase, massive ground war -- that's what I think is the real danger in attacking Iran. If that's at all likely, then the fact that Bush and Cheney are pushing us in that direction is indeed "crazy".
P.S. "Amateur" because I'm neither a psychologist nor a military analyst or strategist. All I know how to do is stage manage plays and write a weblog -- and, given my level of success with both of those, I wouldn't bet the farm on anything I say.
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Thanks to: Breeze, Chuck, Ivan Raikov, Kaiju, Kathy, Roger, Shirley, S.M. Dixon
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i've got a little list...
Elliott Abrams
Steven Abrams (Kansas BofE)
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Roger Ailes (FNC)
John Ashcroft
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John Bolton
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George W. Bush
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Dick Cheney
Lynne Cheney
Richard Cohen
The Coors Family
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William A. Dembski
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Leonard Downie (WaPo)
Dinesh D’Souza
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Jerry Falwell
Douglas Feith
Arthur Finkelstein
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John Gibson (FNC)
Alberto Gonzalez
Rudolph Giuliani
Sean Hannity
Katherine Harris
Fred Hiatt (WaPo)
Christopher Hitchens
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Don Imus
James F. Inhofe
Jesse Jackson
Philip E. Johnson
Daryn Kagan
Joe Klein
Phil Kline
Ron Klink
William Kristol
Ken Lay
Joe Lieberman
Rush Limbaugh
Trent Lott
Frank Luntz
"American Fundamentalists"
by Joel Pelletier
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Chris Matthews
Mitch McConnell
Stephen C. Meyer (DI)
Judith Miller (ex-NYT)
Zell Miller
Tom Monaghan
Sun Myung Moon
Roy Moore
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Ralph Nader
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recent listening
influences
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Isaac Asimov
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J.G. Ballard
The Beatles
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"Catch-22"
Raymond Chandler
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Richard Dawkins
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Fela
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"The Harder They Come"
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Orbital
Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger
"The Prisoner"
"The Red Shoes"
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Oliver Sacks
Erik Satie
"Singin' in the Rain"
Stephen Sondheim
The Specials
Morton Subotnick
Talking Heads/David Byrne
Tangerine Dream
Hunter S. Thompson
J.R.R. Tolkien
"2001: A Space Odyssey"
Kurt Vonnegut
Yes
Bullshit, trolling, unthinking knee-jerk dogmatism and the drivel of idiots will be ruthlessly deleted and the posters banned.
Entertaining, interesting, intelligent, informed and informative comments will always be welcome, even when I disagree with them.
I am the sole judge of which of these qualities pertains.
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the story so far
unfutz: toiling in almost complete obscurity for almost 1500 days
If you read unfutz at least once a week, without fail, your teeth will be whiter and your love life more satisfying.
If you read it daily, I will come to your house, kiss you on the forehead, bathe your feet, and cook pancakes for you, with yummy syrup and everything.
(You might want to keep a watch on me, though, just to avoid the syrup ending up on your feet and the pancakes on your forehead.)
Finally, on a more mundane level, since I don't believe that anyone actually reads this stuff, I make this offer: I'll give five bucks to the first person who contacts me and asks for it -- and, believe me, right now five bucks might as well be five hundred, so this is no trivial offer.
