[A word of warning: this post grew like Topsy, and as a result is fairly incoherent, at least in terms of when stuff was added. In the future, I think I'll stick to new posts instead of annotating old ones. -- Ed]
OK, tomorrow is a mini-Super Tuesday, with 7 states having primaries or caucuses (cauci?). It's time to show just how hep I am, by making some predictions the same way that Big Media does, by glancing at the polls and making it up as I go!
I'll make four categories of guesses:
Who will win each of the seven contests, which are Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina?
In how many states will each of the candidates (Clark, Dean, Edwards, Kerry, Lieberman) get delegates? What states?
When all Tuesday's contests are decided, what will be the order of the candidates in CNN's delegate count, which includes committed superdelegates? (Totals as of now: Dean 113 / Kerry 94 / Edwards 36 / Clark 30 / Lieberman 25 / Sharpton 4 / Kucinich 2. [See below for CNN's updated count])
For extra credit, I'll give the final delegate count for all the candidates.
Here are my guesses:
Winners AZ - Kerry / 2/3: CNN calls at 9 DE - Kerry / CNN calls at 8 MO - Kerry / CNN calls at 8 NM - Kerry / CNN called at ? ND - Kerry / CNN calls around 9:30 OK - Clark / Clark by 1275 over Edwards, Kerry 3 pts back, CNN won't call SC - Edwards / CNN calls at 7:00:01.362
Delegates awarded in Clark - 4 states (AZ, NM, ND, OK) / 2/3: correct Dean - 2 states (DE, NM) / NM correct; none in DE; but 3 in AZ Edwards - 4 states (MO, ND, OK, SC) / no delegates in ND, rest correct Kerry - all 7 states / correct Lieberman - 1 state (DE) / Looks like Joe lays an egg, see below
Total delegate count order Kerry / Dean / Edwards / Clark / Lieberman / Sharpton / Kucinich
As best as I can figure, given the missing delegates (see the post below), this will indeed be the order of the delegate count.
Update (2/3): CNN changed their delegate count before the SC results started to come in:
Kerry 115 / Dean 114 / Edwards 41 / Clark 31 / Lieberman 25 / Sharpton 4 / Kucinich 2.
This makes my final prediction for delegate counts after tonight's contests to:
Kerry 115 + 164 = 279 / 115 plus at least 129 = 244 / 2/5: +145=260 Dean 114 + 10 = 124 / 114 plus at least 7 = 121 / stet Edwards 41 + 55 = 96 / 41 plus at least 61 = 102 / +66=107 Clark 31 + 54 = 85 / 31 plus at least 48 = 79 / +49=81 Leiberman 25 + 4 = 29 / 25 and no additional = 25 / stet Sharpton 4 / 4 plus 1 additional = 5 / +2=6 Kucinich 22 plus no additional = 2 / stet
2/3: unaccounted for: 23 (18 in MO, 5 in ND) / 2/5: all delegates accounted for
Final accounting (2/5) (Predicted-Actual): Kerry 279/260 -- Dean 124/121 -- Edwards 96/107 -- Clark 85/81 -- Lieberman 29/25 -- Sharpton 4/6 -- Kucinich 2/2
That this is not bad, as blind guesses go, is testament to the accuracy of the Zogby polling, because it was the basis for most of my calculations.
=========================================
Update (2/3, somtime early in the evening): Everything's looking real good, except that some sort of mathematical error dropped into my back-of-the-envelope (literally) scribbling, because these delegate adds don't even add up to the number of delegates at stake tonight. Oh, well, we'll see what happens in the end (which is pretty much where I pulled these figures from, that and the Zogby polling).
More: I didn't intend to do any real-time blogging, but, oh well again. As of 9pm and 64% in of the Delaware vote, it looks like Lieberman won't get *any* delegates, and AP is reported that he'll (yeah!) drop out. About time, since he's now in a virtual tie for "failure".
9:47 I'm beginning to think that I completely misunderstood the process by which delegates are awarded in these primaries and caucuses. (CNN has a tremendously unclear explanation here.) My assumption was that once you eliminated candidates who received less than 15%, the state's delegates were then awarded in proportion to the votes each candidate received, but that really doesn't seem to be the case -- or else why would CNN, for instance, show Kerry in Delaware, with 99% of the precincts counted, as having won only 9 delegates, when I thought that 15 delegates were at stake? Clearly, in Dan Akyroyd's ringing phrase, I'm an ignorant slut who shouldn't be throwing around his ignorance in public this way, by making predictions based on faulty assumptions and faulty math.
It's at times like these that I'm glad no one actually reads this blog.
But now that I'm on the defensive, let me turn it around and go on the attack: Is there nowhere one can go to watch election returns? MSNBC has the terrible Chris Matthews and the incredibly loathsome Scarborough asshole, CNBC has the loathsome Dennis Miller, Faux News is collective loathsomeness incarnate, and on CNN I have to put up with Larry King's nonsense (talk about ignorance!) Bob Dole and Bob Woodward -- not to mention Wolfie and company, who at least dribble out some hard news occasionally. There's no where to go!
10:08 OK, with 100% of the vote counted in Delaware, CNN now has Kerry with 50% of the vote, no other candidate over 15%, and Kerry has been credited with 14 of the 15 available delegates. I'm not quite sure what happened to that other delegate, but maybe I didn't misunderstand this thing as badly as I thought. Maybe. [Note to self: yes you did -- Sharpton got the other delegate, presumably because he carried one precinct, or something. Note to readers: if you've come this far, I'd just stop now.]
11:40 Atrios can't figure out how Sharpton got that delegate either.
absolutist
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anti-Constitutional
anti-intellectual
arrogant
authoritarian
blame-placers
blameworthy
blinkered
buckpassers
calculating
class warriors
clueless
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con artists
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craven
criminal
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culpable
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dogmatic
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felonious
hateful
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hostile to science
hypocritical
ideologues
ignorant
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isolated
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warmongers
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Thanks to: Breeze, Chuck, Ivan Raikov, Kaiju, Kathy, Roger, Shirley, S.M. Dixon
recently seen
i've got a little list...
Elliott Abrams
Steven Abrams (Kansas BofE)
David Addington
Howard Fieldstead Ahmanson
Roger Ailes (FNC)
John Ashcroft
Bob Bennett
William Bennett
Joe Biden
John Bolton
Alan Bonsell (Dover BofE)
Pat Buchanan
Bill Buckingham (Dover BofE)
George W. Bush
Saxby Chambliss
Bruce Chapman (DI)
Dick Cheney
Lynne Cheney
Richard Cohen
The Coors Family
Ann Coulter
Michael Crichton
Lanny Davis
Tom DeLay
William A. Dembski
James Dobson
Leonard Downie (WaPo)
Dinesh D’Souza
Gregg Easterbrook
Jerry Falwell
Douglas Feith
Arthur Finkelstein
Bill Frist
George Gilder
Newt Gingrich
John Gibson (FNC)
Alberto Gonzalez
Rudolph Giuliani
Sean Hannity
Katherine Harris
Fred Hiatt (WaPo)
Christopher Hitchens
David Horowitz
Don Imus
James F. Inhofe
Jesse Jackson
Philip E. Johnson
Daryn Kagan
Joe Klein
Phil Kline
Ron Klink
William Kristol
Ken Lay
Joe Lieberman
Rush Limbaugh
Trent Lott
Frank Luntz
"American Fundamentalists"
by Joel Pelletier
(click on image for more info)
Chris Matthews
Mitch McConnell
Stephen C. Meyer (DI)
Judith Miller (ex-NYT)
Zell Miller
Tom Monaghan
Sun Myung Moon
Roy Moore
Dick Morris
Rupert Murdoch
Ralph Nader
John Negroponte
Grover Norquist
Robert Novak
Ted Olson
Elspeth Reeve (TNR)
Bill O'Reilly
Martin Peretz (TNR)
Richard Perle
Ramesh Ponnuru
Ralph Reed
Pat Robertson
Karl Rove
Tim Russert
Rick Santorum
Richard Mellon Scaife
Antonin Scalia
Joe Scarborough
Susan Schmidt (WaPo)
Bill Schneider
Al Sharpton
Ron Silver
John Solomon (WaPo)
Margaret Spellings
Kenneth Starr
Randall Terry
Clarence Thomas
Richard Thompson (TMLC)
Donald Trump
Richard Viguere
Donald Wildmon
Paul Wolfowitz
Bob Woodward (WaPo)
John Yoo
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recent listening
influences
John Adams
Laurie Anderson
Aphex Twin
Isaac Asimov
Fred Astaire
J.G. Ballard
The Beatles
Busby Berkeley
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"Catch-22"
Raymond Chandler
Arthur C. Clarke
Elvis Costello
Richard Dawkins
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Philip K. Dick
Kevin Drum
Brian Eno
Fela
Firesign Theatre
Eliot Gelwan
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David Gordon
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Dashiell Hammett
"The Harder They Come"
Robert Heinlein
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Frank Herbert
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Bill James
Gene Kelly
Stanley Kubrick
Jefferson Airplane
Ursula K. LeGuin
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John McPhee
Harry Partch
Michael C. Penta
Monty Python
Orbital
Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger
"The Prisoner"
"The Red Shoes"
Steve Reich
Terry Riley
Oliver Sacks
Erik Satie
"Singin' in the Rain"
Stephen Sondheim
The Specials
Morton Subotnick
Talking Heads/David Byrne
Tangerine Dream
Hunter S. Thompson
J.R.R. Tolkien
"2001: A Space Odyssey"
Kurt Vonnegut
Yes
Bullshit, trolling, unthinking knee-jerk dogmatism and the drivel of idiots will be ruthlessly deleted and the posters banned.
Entertaining, interesting, intelligent, informed and informative comments will always be welcome, even when I disagree with them.
I am the sole judge of which of these qualities pertains.
E-mail
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Corrections
I correct typos and other simple errors of grammar, syntax, style and presentation in my posts after the fact without necessarily posting notification of the change.
Substantive textual changes, especially reversals or major corrections, will be noted in an "Update" or a footnote.
Also, illustrations may be added to entries after their initial publication.
the story so far
unfutz: toiling in almost complete obscurity for almost 1500 days
If you read unfutz at least once a week, without fail, your teeth will be whiter and your love life more satisfying.
If you read it daily, I will come to your house, kiss you on the forehead, bathe your feet, and cook pancakes for you, with yummy syrup and everything.
(You might want to keep a watch on me, though, just to avoid the syrup ending up on your feet and the pancakes on your forehead.)
Finally, on a more mundane level, since I don't believe that anyone actually reads this stuff, I make this offer: I'll give five bucks to the first person who contacts me and asks for it -- and, believe me, right now five bucks might as well be five hundred, so this is no trivial offer.