In 162 days, John Kerry will defeat George Bush in a landslide, probably winning more than 400 electoral votes. 79 days later, John Kerry will become the 44th President of the United States. Then, it will finally be time for a Democrat to govern again.

In the 1960's, Bob Dylan wrote "The Times, They Are A-Changin'." In 1990, Tim Robbins aptly and astutely wrote, "The Times Are Changin' Back." Right now, I see no reason not to conclude the times are changing once again. Bush is facing imminent collapse, and wholesale public rejection of him, his policies and his ideology. The pendulum is swinging in the other direction; the dialectic is starting to rebalance itself. We are at the brink of a turning point in the history of this country, and from twenty-five years of ashes there will arise a new, progressive phoenix.

I am calling the election right now. Considering the numbers I see, there is no reason to do otherwise.

Every single historical precedent points to a big Kerry victory.

Chris isn't gazing into a crystal ball or consulting a Ouija board or making a half-baked prediction based on his political desires -- read his entire post to see the evidence he presents to back up his conclusion.

For myself, I'd be ecstatically happy should his prediction turn out to be true, but I'm not going to jump on the bandwagon just yet. Just as Chris has followed his methodology to the ultimate conclusion, I'm going to do the same myself; as half-baked and seat-of-the-pants as my "methodology" may be, it makes sense to me and I'll wait until it leads me (I hope) to the same conclusion.

Update: For the sake of completeness, here's a link to Chuck Todd's essay in Washington Monthly predicting a Kerry landslide:

There are perfectly understandable reasons why we expect 2004 to be close. Everyone remembers the nail-biting 2000 recount. A vast number of books and magazine articles describe the degree to which we are a 50/50 nation and detail the precarious balance between red and blue states. And poll after poll show the two candidates oscillating within a few percentage points of one another. There are also institutional factors that drive the presumption that the race will be tight. The press wants to cover a competitive horse-race. And the last thing either campaign wants to do is give its supporters any reason to be complacent and stay home on election day.

But there's another possibility, one only now being floated by a few political operatives: 2004 could be a decisive victory for Kerry. The reason to think so is historical. Elections that feature a sitting president tend to be referendums on the incumbent--and in recent elections, the incumbent has either won or lost by large electoral margins. If you look at key indicators beyond the neck-and-neck support for the two candidates in the polls--such as high turnout in the early Democratic primaries and the likelihood of a high turnout in November--it seems improbable that Bush will win big. More likely, it's going to be Kerry in a rout.

I've gotta add that when I saw the Zogby results, the thought occured to me that I may well look back on this day as the day it became apparent that it was all turning around, and that the tipping point had been passed. That remains to be seen, but it's a comforting thought nonetheless.