National Two-Party Vote Projection

Kerry: 52.74
Bush: 47.26
Status: Lean Kerry


Electoral Vote Projection

Kerry: 348
Bush: 190
States Changing Hands: AZ, AR, FL, MO, NH, NV, OH and WV

Now, some people may object to the states I have projected for Kerry. They may point out that recent polls from Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, Oregon, and West Virginia actually show Bush leading Kerry by a few points. While I am aware of these polls, I need to point out that my state-by-state projections are based on a variety of indicators, including the national two-party vote projection, the partisan index for each state, recent state trial heats, long term-state voting trends, state-by-state approval ratings and state-by-state negatives. All of these indicators provide a more complete context in which I can make state-by state projections, rather than just the twists and turns of random state-by-state trial heats.

Kerry is up by 5.48% now, and he is starting to knock on the door of a "solid" lead (7.01%+). Breaking the seven point barrier is huge, since it means that the election would be out of the reach of GOTV efforts, Florida voter purges, and any possibility of the national vote loser winning the electoral college. If Kerry is up by seven or more on the morning of November 2nd, then it will be time to call in sick to work on November 3rd and party like its 1992.

As I've written before, I think Chris's projections are based on a methodology that's a lot more systematic (and based on more factor) than my own, so I take his numbers seriously. I'll be glad when I can convince myself to move some more states into Kerry's column.

Update: When I checked, Chris has posted a new projection on the Swing State Project, the notes for which make a little clearer what his methodology is:

(May 17 results in parenthesis)

National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection

Kerry: 52.4 (52.9)
Bush: 47.6 (47.1)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection

Kerry: 337 (348)
Bush: 201 (190)

States changing hands: AZ, FL, MO, NH, NV and OH

The new Christian Science Monitor / Investor’s Business Daily poll, combined with the new Rasmussen approval ratings, have allowed Bush to close the gap on Kerry. However, from what I can tell, Kerry still holds a lead outside of the margin or error.

Here are all twelve data points used in the national two-party popular vote projection:

The Four Most recent Bush-Kerry-Nader trial heats: TechnoMetrica, Princeton, Harris, and Zogby

The Four Most Recent Bush Approval Ratings: Princeton, Harris, Zogby and Rasmussen

The Four Most Recent Bush and Kerry Unfavorable Ratings: Harris, Zogby, Opinion Dynamics, and Hart / Teeter