[T]hese protests have the potential to derail the Republicans or crash the Democrats, it all depends on how they're organized and how the media reports them. That I don't trust some of the suborganizations involved (Earth First) to stay peaceful and that I expect the media to report violence before reality only heightens my concerns. I'll be talking about this much more in the days to come as, I think, will a lot of us bloggers. I really think there's an off-chance that the election may be effectively decided in New York...

And Daniel comments:

The closer the convention draws, and the more stories about rage-filled protestors I read, the more worried I get. Furthermore, I'm not really sure how the protests might "derail the Republicans." I find it unlikely that any sort of protest will dent GOP support besides, perhaps, a spectacle featuring 200,000 calm, sensible and mainstream-looking individuals silently marching down 8th Avenue each holding a single candle in the air. If there's one dumbass giant leering Bush effigy, one balaclava-clad bottle-thrower, or anyone who vaguely appears hippieish, that's who'll be on the news, and the net effect of the protests on GOP support will actually be positive.

Given the GOP's track record for dirty tricks (and the history of the FBI -- at least in the old days -- for inflitrating groups that oppose the government, and crossing the line into agitating for violence), and the prevalent mood of anger on the left about the gross abuses of the Bush administration, it's a virtual certainty that there will be people in these demonstrations who would like nothing better than to provoke confrontations, property damage and even violence.

Of course, this fact is not nearly enough to justify the city trying to suppress the protests, given they represent such a fundamental right of all citizens to make their views known to the government, but it does put the onus on the protest organizers and their representatives to do their utmost to keep them peaceful and contained. The harsh reality that failure to do so will only serve to be a potential help to the Bush bid for election should be sufficient motivation for them to do everything they can to make sure things don't get out of hand.

(Incidentally, I think we can count on the media to report on the protests in the way that is most advantageous to Bush and harmful to Kerry, not necessarily because of any innate bias, but because conflict -- and action and violence and bloodshed -- are what plays best on the air -- "If it bleeds, it leads" -- and the punditocracy will take it from there.)