Wednesday, October 19, 2005
 

Caution: Realism zone ahead

Well, expectations do seem to have gotten entirely out of hand -- people are referring to the announcement of the Fitzgerald investigation indictments as "Fitzmas". They're putting so much emotional weight onto it (entirely too much), they're bound to be extremely disappointed when they find out that the indictments are limited and reasonable (by which I mean both defensible and prosecutable).

At least that's my prediction.

Bush will not be indicted, nor will he be named as an unindicted co-conspirator. It's possible, but only barely so, that Cheney might be named one -- but I certainly wouldn't count on it. Rove's the pivot point, and I've written before (here and here) what I think is likely to happen to him. Anyone under Rove is fair game -- that's where we'll see some indictments.

To sum it up: There will be indictments, some people who have done wrong things will be prosecuted, other people who did wrong things will skate, the administration will not be taken down, or neutered. Bush and Cheney will still be in power, somewhat weakened, perhaps, and missing the talents of some of their people, but still running the country.

And that's about it.

The world we're living in now is not the same world that existed during Watergate, the power structure is entirely different, and that makes Watergate in general a bad model to follow in predicting what's going to happen now. This will not be a repeat of Watergate, there is precisely zero chance of Bush being impeached, and it would be best is everyone stopped wanting so badly for those things to happen.

I'm sorry if that's boring, or depressing, or too pessimistic, or entirely too realistic, but that's what I think will happen.

Addenda: I know, I know, it's so much more pleasant to soothe our troubled souls with fantasies, aery fortresses of self-delusion, about the members of the White House Iraq Group being frogmarched out of the White House into waiting paddy wagons than it is to cope with the harsh realities of the power structure that exists in Washington right now.

It's odd, really, that some of the same people who are concerned that Bush and Cheney might not release the reigns of power if the next elected President is not who they want it to be, seem convinced that the outcome of a single investigation concerning a specific and circumscribed event will knock them for a loop and force them to abandon their hard-won power. These folks can look at the prescribed mechanism for impeachment and see it used against Bush without considering for a moment where the necessary will for impeachment is going to come from, as if the mechanism exists by itself, in isolation, without neeeding people -- people with power -- to make it work.

But even those who have been more level-headed in delving into the minutia and specifics of the Plame case have allowed themselves, I think, to get carried away with the possibilities of the case. They get hung up on what's technically illegal without consideration of what's possible to prosecute, which I would think are not exactly the same thing. They have a tendency to lose themselves inside a shakey edifice, a house of cards that's tenuous in the extreme: speculation on top of interpolation inside possibilities buttressed by hypotheticals. It's no wonder that some keep at until the construction gets high enough to reache the fabled City in the Clouds where Impeachment and Bush in Jail live.

Those things aren't going to happen -- at least at this moment in time -- and believing they will is no different from believing in Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny. Worse, really, it's actually more like believing in the Great Pumpkin -- at least for a while, Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny actually deliver the goods.

Postscript: It shouldn't be necessary to add, but apparently it is, that my intuition about what I believe will happen has nothing whatsoever to do with what I think should happen or, even more to the point, my own fantasies about what I would prefer to happen -- and also that I would be plenty damn happy to be proved wrong by actual events, for crying out loud.

Update (10/20): Jack Balkin reminds us that Bush has an ace in the hole.

BTW, what's that expression Alan Greenspan used a while back, in describing one of our recent bubbles? Oh, right -- "irrational exuberance." That's a pretty good description of what's coursing through the liberal blogosphere right now.

Also: ...check out Tom Hilton's post here. He asks what lengths Bush would go to to hang on to power. My comment (slightly edited):
I think ultimately the question being asked is not framed correctly. In point of fact, Bush doesn't have to do anything to "hang on to power", because there's one and only one available mechanism to remove him from office, and that's impeachment and conviction -- and that chances of that happening as long as the GOP controls the Congress is so close to zero that you couldn't see the gap with an electron microscope.

Even if, in a political miracle, the Dems retake the Congress in 2006, it's far from a slam-dunk that Bush or Cheney would be impeached, and, if impeached, convicted -- there are just too many conservative Democrats, too many folks with deep reservations about the damage done to the country by the (bogus) impeachment of Clinton, and too much chance that the GOP, however fractured it is by the events we're specualating about, will stick together and vote as a bloc. That adds up to a pretty low probability of anything happening.

So, absent impeachment and conviction, Bush stays in the White House, and as long as he's got the reigns of office there, he's got the power to do a lot of stuff by fiat and directive, without Congressional backing if necessary. We can only drive him out if he's got a conscience and is subject to feeling shame -- I've seen no particular indication that that is the case.

Ed Fitzgerald | 10/19/2005 11:18:00 PM | | | del.icio.us | GO: TOP OF HOME PAGE







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